River Flood Warning 51, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
611 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...HEAVY RAIN
AND SEVERE THREATS THRU THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO WITH A
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SEVERAL WEAKER WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS TROUGH/FRONT INTO WI/MI. TROUGH AND OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSH
AN AIRMASS WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCH PW/S NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO IA/MN/WI.
RATHER MASSIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTHERN
LK MI TO SOUTHERN MN AND EASTERN NEB...AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL CAPPING. UNDER THE CAPPING...EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS MUCH OF IA.

22.00Z MODELS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL...THOUGH NOT AS
SIMILARLY AS ONE WOULD LIKE. AS EXPECTED IN A FORECAST DOMINATED BY
MESO-SCALE FORCINGS AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...SOLUTIONS
OFFERING A VARIETY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOMES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 22.00Z SHOWED THE MODEL RUNS OF
20.00Z AND 21.00Z VERIFIED QUITE WELL WITH THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES
OVER NOAM/EASTERN PAC. MOST OF THE EARLIER RUNS WERE A BIT WEAK WITH
SHORTWAVE FEATURES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO GREAT LAKES AND WERE A
BIT HIGH WITH 500MB HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS TRENDING
TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS TODAY THRU SUN...AT LEAST WITH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH AS IT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TREND
IS A BIT STRONGER WITH TROUGHING AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD NORTHERN MN/WESTERN ONT TONIGHT/SUN. PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THRU THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED MODELS TO BE REASONABLE
WITH THE SFC MASS FIELDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...BUT SFC PRESSURE
FIELDS QUITE DISTURBED FROM EASTERN NEB TO WI BY ALL THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. PER WV IMAGERY...ECMWF LOOKS BEST WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS
SHORTWAVE DETAILS. MOST OF THE OTHERS LOOK TO SUFFER SOME FORM OF
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH COMPACT/STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. ECMWF/GEM/SREF LOOKED BETTER WITH
THE 00-06Z PRECIP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...NAM/GFS WERE TOO FAR
SOUTH WITH CONVECTION OVER IA. LOCAL/REGIONAL WRF MODELS CATCHING
ONTO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING. FIRST TO CATCH IT WERE
THE ARX-WRF AND EAST-ARW. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND...SHORT TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. GENERALLY FAVORED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS...WEIGHTED TOWARD THE NON GFS/NAM MODELS.

FAVORING THE SUITE OF LOCAL/REGIONAL HIGH-RES WRF MODELS...CONVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE VEERS ACROSS
MN/IA/WI. TRENDED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TOWARD 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FCST AREA AT 12Z...THEN TRENDING DOWNWARD THRU THE MORNING.
ONLY CARRIED 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO THE
MAIN TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE MID LEVEL WARMING/CAPPING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WITH WHAT LOOKS
TO BE A BREAK LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...WILL NOT EXTEND FLASH
FLOOD WATCH BEYOND ITS CURRENT 17Z END TIME. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES INTO THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH 2K-3K J/KG OF
CAPE AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPPING...WILL LEAVE A 20-40
PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE THRU THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE /FAT/ CAPES...
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WOULD POSE A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL. APPEARS AREA MAY GET MORE OF A BREAK FROM THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TONIGHT/EARLY SUN AS THE MAIN TROUGH/FRONT WITH ITS
CONVERGENCE/LIFT MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA. LEFT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO RE-
EVALUATE THE HYDRO SITUATION...WATCH TRENDS THRU THE DAY AND SEE
WHICH IF ANY OF THE MODELS ARE MORE CORRECT WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
THE NEXT 24-36HRS.

BY SUN AFTERNOON THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING INTO NORTHWEST MN
PUSHES THE SFC-850MB FRONT/TROUGH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. FORCING/
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PUSHING INTO THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME 2K-3K J/KG MU CAPE AND PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SHOULD
IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS APPEARS ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY/SUN REMAIN TRICKY...BASED ON WHEN CONVECTION
WOULD CLEAR THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS THIN/CLEAR AND ALLOW
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...STAYED NEAR THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS TODAY THRU SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO IMPROVE FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO ONT AND HGTS RISE OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE/UNSETTLED...WITH
PLENTY OF MODEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD
REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. THE PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE WEAK
SFC TROUGH/FRONT INTO ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN
THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE SUN NIGHT LOOK REASONABLE. GIVEN THE
FORCING...STRONG INSTABILITY AND INCREASED WINDS/SHEAR ALOFT...TSRA
SUN NIGHT COULD BE SEVERE WITH THREATS OF WINDS AND HAIL. THE
TROUGH/FRONT FROM SUN/AFTERNOON/EVENING LIFTS BACK NORTH ALREADY ON
ON MON...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE/LIFT AND SHRA/TSRA
FORMATION...THIS AS MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVES
TO BE RIPPLING THRU THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED 20-40
PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON. LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/
THETA-E CONVERGENCE INCREASE INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT AS THIS BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. CARRIED 30-50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
MON NIGHT.

GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS...USED A
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR LOWS/HIGHS SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.

WITH ALL THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS AND UNCERTAINTIES...NOT MUCH TIME
SPENT LOOKING AT THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF
22.00Z DO OFFER SOME CONSENSUS FOR A FLAT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TUE/WED...WITH SHORTWAVES TO BE
RIPPLING THRU THIS FLOW AND ACROSS THE REGION. LONGER TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE AVERAGE. WITH THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ONE
OR MORE BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND THE REGION...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
LOOK TO CONTINUE TUE THRU AT LEAST WED NIGHT. BY THU MODELS POINT TO
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BECOMING NORTHWEST FOR THU/FRI. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
WOULD DRIVE SOME DRIER/COOLER AIR FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CAN/NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND DECREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...INTO THE AREA FOR THE
LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR
TUE THRU FRI LOOK WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

TIMING OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST
CHALLENGE WITH AN OTHERWISE VFR SCENARIO GOING ON.

ECHOES ON BACK EDGE OF LATEST MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL PASS
FIRST THING THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPECT BREAK IN WEATHER UNTIL
BOUNDARY GETS ACTIVE AGAIN LATER TODAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHEN THAT MAY HAPPEN AGAIN BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT TENDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN BY 00 UTC JUN 23RD SO WILL INTRODUCE RISK FOR NEW CONVECTION A
LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. EVEN IF MORE STEADY
CONVECTION GETS GOING AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF STRONGEST CELLS...WITH TEMPORARY IFR IN WORST AREAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE WANING/ENDING THRU THE MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING REDEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINS FROM FRI EVENING/EARLY THIS MORNING WERE
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING APPEARS AS THOUGH IT MAY BE MORE SCATTERED AND PROGRESSIVE
THUS WILL NOT BE EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

MAIN FORCING/LIFT LOOK TO LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA FOR TONIGHT/
SUN MORNING...BUT STRONGER FORCING /IN THE FORM OF A PASSING MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHING SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT/ MOVES BACK
INTO THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...LOOKS LIKELY AS THESE FEATURES
PASS. APPEARS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN SUN
AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
     041>044-053>055-061.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
     029-030.

&&

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....SHEA
HYDROLOGY....RRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
445 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-231100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA
CROSSE-MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-
VERNON-WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
445 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. FLASH
FLOODING COULD RESULT. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON MONDAY.

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SEVERE RISKS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WOULD MAINLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
MAIN SEVERE THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
HEAVY RAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY POSE A
SEVERE THREAT.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S ARE LIKELY EACH DAY. AS THE HEAT
INDICES INCREASE...SO DOES THE CONCERN FOR HEAT-RELATED ISSUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED THIS MORNING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED.

RRS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
807 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

WIZ061-221400-
GRANT-
807 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

AT 804 AM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LOUISBURG...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAZEL GREEN...CUBA CITY AND CUBA CITY.

HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. STAY CLEAR OF DRAINAGE
AREAS AND AVOID AREAS OF HIGH WATER IF THEY DEVELOP.

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
830 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EDGEWOOD                42.65N 91.40W
06/22/2013  M3.50 INCH       CLAYTON            IA   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
831 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ELKADER                 42.86N 91.40W
06/22/2013                   CLAYTON            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING REPORTED IN NUMEROUS LOW AREAS AND MANY
            SECONDARY ROADS UNDER WATER.

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
839 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MOUNT ZION              43.26N 90.73W
06/22/2013  M3.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
916 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BOSCOBEL                43.14N 90.70W
06/22/2013                   GRANT              WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAJOR FLOOD DAMAGE REPORTED. MOST STREETS
            FLOODED...INCLUDING NUMEROUS HOMES. EVACUATIONS WERE
            NEEDED.

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW BOSCOBEL           43.16N 90.73W
06/22/2013                   CRAWFORD           WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MUDSLIDE CLOSED HIGHWAY 61

0905 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WOODMAN                 43.09N 90.80W
06/22/2013                   GRANT              WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RAILROAD TRACKS WASHED OUT

0845 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BAGLEY                  42.90N 91.10W
06/22/2013                   GRANT              WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DEBRIS BLOCKING RAILROAD BRIDGE DRAINAGE

0914 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PATCH GROVE             42.94N 90.97W
06/22/2013                   GRANT              WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING DEBRIS BLOCKED SOME AREA ROADS

0845 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ENE BOSCOBEL          43.16N 90.63W
06/22/2013                   GRANT              WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SECTIONS OF HIGHWAY 133 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

0916 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EXCELSIOR               43.25N 90.63W
06/22/2013                   RICHLAND           WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREAMS AND DITCHES OUT OF BANKS. COUNTY ROAD F FLOODED
            OVER. WORST DAMAGE IN FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY.

&&

SHEA