River Flood Warning 31, NWS La Crosse, WI

399 
WGUS83 KARX 210228
FLSARX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
928 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND ESPECIALLY LAST
NIGHT...RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
CONTINUE ON THE ROOT RIVER AT HOUSTON AND PRESTON...AND ON THE CEDAR
RIVER AT CHARLES CITY. RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH
OBSERVED AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO 
FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY 
VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE .

&&

IAC067-211728-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-130523T2130Z/
/CCYI4.3.ER.000000T0000Z.130521T0600Z.130523T0330Z.NO/
928 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CEDAR RIVER AT CHARLES CITY.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 20.2 FEET BY 
  TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY 
  EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...CLARK STREET AT LELAND FLOODS AND COURT 
  STREET AT ILLINOIS FLOODS.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4321 9286 4321 9273 4301 9255 4293 9255 4304 9273

$$

MNC055-211728-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0031.130521T1100Z-130523T0640Z/
/HOUM5.1.ER.130521T1100Z.130522T0000Z.130522T1240Z.NO/
928 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROOT RIVER NEAR HOUSTON.
* FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING
  IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:45 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 15.9 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4382 9173 4379 9145 4376 9145 4375 9167 4378 9173

$$

MNC045-055-211728-
/O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-130522T0347Z/
/PTNM5.1.ER.130520T1739Z.130520T1930Z.130521T0347Z.NO/
928 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER AT PRESTON.
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  2:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 938.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 937.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...DROPPING BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 938.0 FEET...SOME CITY STREETS ARE FLOODED NEAR THE 
  RIVER AND SOME EVACUATIONS ARE NEEDED.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4368 9219 4370 9206 4369 9202 4365 9206 4363 9219

$$

ZT

583 
WGUS83 KARX 211000
FLSARX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
500 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN HIGH
WATER FOR MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE
ON THE ROOT RIVER AT HOUSTON MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS THE CEDAR RIVER
AT CHARLES CITY IOWA. THE LATEST STAGES AND FORECAST INFORMATION IS
PROVIDED BELOW.

RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST 
PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO 
FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY 
VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE .

&&

IAC067-220100-
/O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-130523T2130Z/
/CCYI4.3.ER.000000T0000Z.130521T0515Z.130523T0330Z.NO/
500 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CEDAR RIVER AT CHARLES CITY.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 4:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER REACHED A CREST OF 19.52 FEET LAST EVENING
  AND IS NOW FALLING. EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE A SLOW FALL
  TODAY...FALLING BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...4TH AND SOUTH GRAND STREET ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4321 9286 4321 9273 4301 9255 4293 9255 4304 9273

$$

MNC055-220100-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0031.130521T1115Z-130523T0640Z/
/HOUM5.1.ER.130521T1115Z.130522T0000Z.130522T1240Z.NO/
500 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROOT RIVER NEAR HOUSTON.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 4:45 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO A CREST NEAR 15.9 FEET THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON WEDNESDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4382 9173 4379 9145 4376 9145 4375 9167 4378 9173

$$

864 
WGUS83 KARX 211533
FLSARX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1033 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN HIGH
WATER FOR MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE
ON THE ROOT RIVER AT HOUSTON MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS THE CEDAR RIVER
AT CHARLES CITY IOWA. THE LATEST STAGES AND FORECAST INFORMATION IS
PROVIDED BELOW.

RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST 
PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO 
FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY 
VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE .

&&

IAC067-220633-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-130523T0246Z/
/CCYI4.3.ER.000000T0000Z.130521T0515Z.130522T0846Z.NO/
1033 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CEDAR RIVER AT CHARLES CITY.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AND DROP BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...HOMES SOUTH OF RIVERSIDE FLOOD AND 
  EVACUATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4321 9286 4321 9273 4301 9255 4293 9255 4304 9273

$$

MNC055-220633-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-130523T0508Z/
/HOUM5.1.ER.130521T1203Z.130522T0000Z.130522T1108Z.NO/
1033 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROOT RIVER NEAR HOUSTON.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:45 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR 15.9 FEET THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4382 9173 4379 9145 4376 9145 4375 9167 4378 9173

$$

058 
WGUS83 KARX 212016
FLSARX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
316 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN HIGH
WATER FOR MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE
ON THE ROOT RIVER AT HOUSTON MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS THE CEDAR RIVER
AT CHARLES CITY IOWA. THE LATEST STAGES AND FORECAST INFORMATION IS
PROVIDED BELOW. RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH OBSERVED AND
FORECAST PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO 
FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY 
VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE .

&&

IAC067-221116-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-130523T0312Z/
/CCYI4.3.ER.000000T0000Z.130521T0515Z.130522T0912Z.NO/
316 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CEDAR RIVER AT CHARLES CITY.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  2:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...DROPPING BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...EVACUATION OPERATIONS BEGIN. LELAND AVENUE 
  FLOODS AND FLOODING ON PARK DRIVE IS LIKELY. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4321 9286 4321 9273 4301 9255 4293 9255 4304 9273

$$

MNC055-221116-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-130523T0705Z/
/HOUM5.1.ER.130521T1203Z.130522T0000Z.130522T1305Z.NR/
316 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROOT RIVER NEAR HOUSTON.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  2:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.5 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4382 9173 4379 9145 4376 9145 4375 9167 4378 9173

$$

881 
WGUS83 KARX 212148
FLSARX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
447 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN HIGH
WATER FOR MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS. THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
ON THE ROOT RIVER AT HOUSTON MINNESOTA...WHICH SHOULD CREST JUST
BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST STAGES AND FORECAST
INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BELOW. RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH
OBSERVED ANDFORECAST PRECIPITATION.

RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST 
PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO 
FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY 
VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE .

&&

MNC055-221247-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-130523T1320Z/
/HOUM5.1.ER.130521T1203Z.130522T0600Z.130522T1920Z.NR/
447 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROOT RIVER NEAR HOUSTON.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  3:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.7 FEET BY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4382 9173 4379 9145 4376 9145 4375 9167 4378 9173

$$

635 
WGUS83 KARX 220141
FLSARX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
841 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK IS RESULTING IN HIGH WATER
LEVELS ON MANY STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE ROOT RIVER
AT HOUSTON...CEDAR RIVER AT CHARLES CITY...AND THE UPPER IOWA RIVER
NEAR DORCHESTER. RIVER FORECASTS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BOTH OBSERVED AND
FORECAST PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS INTO FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...IT TAKES ONLY TWO 
FEET OF WATER TO FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES...INCLUDING SPORT UTILITY 
VEHICLES. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE .

&&

IAC067-221641-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-130523T1048Z/
/CCYI4.3.ER.000000T0000Z.130521T0515Z.130522T1648Z.NO/
841 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CEDAR RIVER AT CHARLES CITY.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...DROPPING BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...EVACUATION OPERATIONS BEGIN. LELAND AVENUE 
  FLOODS AND FLOODING ON PARK DRIVE IS LIKELY. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4321 9286 4321 9273 4301 9255 4293 9255 4304 9273

$$

MNC055-221641-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-130523T1240Z/
/HOUM5.1.ER.130521T1203Z.130522T0600Z.130522T1840Z.NR/
841 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROOT RIVER NEAR HOUSTON.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:45 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.6 FEET BY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4382 9173 4379 9145 4376 9145 4375 9167 4378 9173

$$

IAC005-221641-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130523T2256Z/
/DCHI4.1.ER.130522T0141Z.130522T1200Z.130523T0456Z.NO/
841 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE UPPER IOWA RIVER AT DORCHESTER HWY 76.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 16.0 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...IOWA HIGHWAY 76 SOUTH OF DORCHESTER MAY BE 
  THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4341 9161 4334 9161 4339 9152 4343 9123 4350 9125

$$

221 
WGUS83 KARX 221213
FLSARX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
713 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ROOT RIVER ARE RECEDING SLOWLY...AND
THEREFORE THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE HOUSTON
AREAS.

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE .

&&

MNC055-221243-
/O.CAN.KARX.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-130523T1240Z/
/HOUM5.1.ER.130521T1203Z.130521T2345Z.130522T0836Z.NR/
713 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ROOT RIVER NEAR HOUSTON.
* AT 4:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  3:36 AM WEDNESDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 11.2 FEET BY THURSDAY
  MORNING.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1235 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL
TODAY.

CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA WITH RIDGING
AHEAD OF IT OVER MICHIGAN. THE UPPER LOW WAS MOSTLY CUT OFF WITH
RIDGING TO ITS NORTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. 500MB STANDARD
DEVIATIONS WERE 1-1.5 BELOW NORMAL WITH THE UPPER LOW. NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WERE EJECTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE CONVECTIVELY PRODUCED. ONE FOR EXAMPLE WAS
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. RAP DATA ALSO SHOWED A LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ZONE WITH THIS MCV. FARTHER SOUTH...ANOTHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ZONE WAS NOTED IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI...
POINTING INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCV AND SPLIT IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS ALLOWED THE
PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH SOUTH OF HWY 29. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE COMING
UP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.2-1.5
INCHES FROM EASTERN OK INTO SOUTEHRN WI. THERE WAS A MINIMA OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM WESTERN KS INTO MUCH OF IA...THOUGH....
ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY SLOT SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED UNDER THE UPPER LOW WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO EAU CLAIRE WI. RAP 850MB TEMPS WERE IN THE
14-18C RANGE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF KEEPING THE UPPER LOW NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE ITS STATIONARY MOVEMENT...THE
WEATHER WILL BE QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
PRIMARILY THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
PROGGED MORE SOUTHWESTERLY VERSUS SOUTHERLY. ADDITIONALLY...THE
PLUME OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
THANKS TO THE UPPER LOW.

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS INDICATED TO STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH EXISTING IN THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR
SHORTWAVES TO COME THROUGH...BOTH FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ONE QUESTION MARK IS MOISTURE. BASED ON A
AMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF OMAHA AT 04Z...THE 850MB DEWPOINTS FROM THE
20.00Z NAM WERE 6-7C TOO HIGH...THUS THE NAM BUILDS A LOT OF CAPE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING. THE RAP IS MUCH MORE SUBDUED HAVING THE AREA
ENCOMPASSED BY THE DRY AIR...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT MLCAPE.
THINKING THE RAP IDEA IS MUCH MORE REPRESENTATIVE AND HAVE KEPT THE
AREA DRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY...THE RAP DOES CATCH UP
WITH THE CAPE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO EVAPOTRANSPORATION OF
MOIST SOILS. IN FACT...THE RAP SHOWS A DEFINITIVE DRY LINE IN THE
WARM SECTOR FORMING NEAR I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS DRY LINE SHOULD
SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA. MAJORITY OF MODELS...INCLUDING HI
RESOLUTION ONES...SHOW THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THEN
PROPAGATING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST 0-6KM SHEAR OF
GREATER THAN 35 KTS IS PROGGED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OPPOSITE OF WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE. ON
THE OTHER HAND...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE LOWER ON THE ORDER OF
10500 FT WHERE THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...THUS THERE COULD END UP
BEING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
INSTABILITY WANES LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED...IF FOR SOME REASON A STORM FIRES IN THE HIGHER
0-6KM SHEAR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...IT WOULD LIKELY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR. AGAIN...THOUGH...THINK THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY WITH
THAT AREA PERHAPS EVEN BEING CAPPED. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW
FOR FLOODING CONCERNS.

CERTAINTLY THE ADDITIONAL RAIN FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL NOT HELP THE FLOODING MATTERS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. HAVE KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING
TO 00Z THIS EVENING...WHICH WORKS OUT WELL IN TERMS OF TIME BECAUSE
THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY BE EAST OF THERE BY THE EXPIRATION.

SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN TODAY AND WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN
THAT 14-18C RANGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT LIKELY TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING UP IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN FOCUS HERE IS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. 20.00Z
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/NAM ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HOLDING THE
UPPER LOW NEARLY STATIONARY ON TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT GETS MORE OF A KICK
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE KICK EAST IS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA.

FOR TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER LOOKS TO BE DRY-SLOTTED...THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. TO THE EAST...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION COULD FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT MARCHING EAST. INSTABILITY
IS PRETTY MEAGER IN THIS CASE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN DEALING
WITH...THUS ANY CONVECTION SHOULD NOT GO SEVERE. BETTER SHOT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERALL ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF HWY 29
IN A LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE.

AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DPVA INCREASES WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE DROPS SOUTH. THEREFORE...
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEM REASONABLE... ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS ARE JUXTAPOSTED.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT ON WEDNESDAY
BEING CLOSE TO OR UNDER THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW.

MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING FASTER IN KICKING OUT THE UPPER LOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT THURSDAY MAY NOW END
UP DRY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH IS IN THAT
AFOREMENTIONED JUXTAPOSITION OF FORCING MECHANISMS.

DEFINITELY A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THAT UPPER LOW COMING IN...AND THEN COME THURSDAY A
NORTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING AIR FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 11-13C
AT 12Z TUE TO 4-6C BY 12Z THU. WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS FOR NOW GIVEN NO SIGNAL TO LEAN TOWARDS WARMER OR
COLDER SCENARIO GIVEN THE FORECAST PATTERN.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
20.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
BLOCKED UP UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE FLOW FEATURES DEEP TROUGHING
ALONG THE WEST COAST...RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES...AND MEAN TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WHAT THIS PATTERN MEANS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
IS A BATTLE BETWEEN DRY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS ADVECTING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. IT APPEARS DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...RESULTING FROM SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY TO
MID WEEK UPPER LOW. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...HAVE FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...HIGHEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE CHANCES
ARE A RESULT OF SURGES OF WARM ADVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION COULD
BECOME ENHANCED TOO AT TIMES AS JET STREAKS PROPAGATE BETWEEN THE
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH AND PLAINS RIDGING.

SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING THE EXTENDED IS POTENTIAL FOR FROST...
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THURSDAY NIGHT ACCORDING TO 20.00Z
MODELS WOULD BE THE HIGHEST CHANCE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO EITHER MENTION FROST IN THE FORECAST OR DROP LOWS BELOW
40. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL BEING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CANADIAN HIGH AND A NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AS UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA...SOME STRATUS AND CUMULUS
FIELD WRAPING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM BRIEF CLEARING...BUT MOST
CEILINGS VFR. WATCHING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BUT
STORM OCCULUSION AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE FORM OF LOWER CAPE
VALUES MAY KEEP STORMS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...IN ADDITION
TO A BIT MORE SOUTH AND EAST. WILL KEEP STORMS IN A VICINITY MODE
UNTIL MORE DETAIL CAN BE WORKED IN BUT THREAT SHOULD END BY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANY CAPE DIMINISHES.

GENERALLY A VFR CEILING EXPECTED AS UPPER LOW SPINS AROUND THE AREA
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BUT SOME MVFR TIME IS POSSIBLE WITH LOWER
STRATUS FIELDS OR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AS HEAVIEST RAIN FOCUS SHIFTS A BIT SOUTH AND EAST OF HARDEST HIT
AREAS...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS HAD DROPPED
ENOUGH TO CLEAR SOME OF THE WATCH. BUT REMAINING HIGH WATER AND
RISING RIVERS PROMPTED KEEPING REST OF COUNTIES GOING IN WATCH AT
LEAST INTO LATE AFTERNOON.

SEEMS LIKE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSING ON AREAS OF EASTERN
IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WHICH CAN HANDLE A BIT MORE RAIN. NO
CURRENT PLANS TO EXPAND ANY WATCHES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008.

&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....SHEA
HYDROLOGY....AJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1144 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

IAZ008-009-MNZ087-094-095-211200-
FILLMORE-HOWARD-MITCHELL-MOWER-OLMSTED-
1144 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR RECENT
HEAVY RAIN AND ON-GOING FLOODING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 10 PM TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING ARE THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY
RAIN.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN ANY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

IAZ010-011-018-019-029-030-MNZ088-096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-
053>055-061-211200-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-MONROE-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-
TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
1144 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS BETWEEN
3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 10 PM TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN ANY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

MNZ079-086-211200-
DODGE-WABASHA-
1144 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. A MAJORITY OF THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT A BRIEF STRONG STORM IS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN ANY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED...BUT IF ANY STRONG STORMS ARE
OBSERVED...REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

BOYNE/AJ/SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1054 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     FLOOD            OSAGE                   43.28N 92.81W
05/20/2013                   MITCHELL           IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 9 EAST AND WEST OF TOWN STILL CLOSED. ROAD WEST
            OF TOWN IS SERIOUSLY DAMAGED AND WILL NOT REOPEN FOR
            WEEKS. SCHOOL CLOSED.

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1059 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 AM     FLOOD            SPRING VALLEY           43.69N 92.39W
05/20/2013                   FILLMORE           MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF FILLMORE
            COUNTY. REPORTS OF BASEMENT FLOODING IN THE SPRING VALLEY
            AREA. CATTLE STRANDED IN THE WYKOFF AND FILLMORE AREAS.

&&

WETENKAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1257 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 PM     FLOOD            ROSE CREEK              43.60N 92.83W
05/20/2013                   MOWER              MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY SHOULDERS WASHED OUT IN SPOTS. SOME SECONDARY
            ROADS STILL HAVE WATER OVER THEM OR CLOSED. BASEMENT
            FLOODING WAS DUE MORE TO STORM SEWER BACKUPS IN
            COMMUNITIES.

&&

SHEA