Winter Storm Warning 5, NWS Gaylord, MI

Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

370 
WWUS43 KAPX 120116
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
916 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

.A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TO THE REGION INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION
OF ICE AND WET SNOW ACCUMULATION ON POWER LINES AND TREES MAY
LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

MIZ016>019-021>024-121000-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-130412T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130412T1600Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-
ALPENA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA
916 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
EDT FRIDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED
   TONIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE OVERNIGHT.

 * TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES ARE
   EXPECTED NORTH OF M-68.

 * TOTAL SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN A
   QUARTER AND A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST
   AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-68.

IMPACTS...

 * ROADS WILL BECOME ICY THIS EVENING AND SNOW COVERED OVERNIGHT
   LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

 * SIGNIFICANT ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES AND POWER LINES
   WILL LIKELY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... 
   SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE 
   ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL 
   CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-025>036-041-042-121000-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-130412T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130412T1300Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...
LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...
STANDISH
916 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
EDT FRIDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * A COMBINATION OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE
   THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR
   TOWARD MORNING.

 * TOTAL SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND
   ONE HALF INCH WILL BE SEEN ON TREES AND POWER LINES...WITH LESS
   THAN THAT ON PAVED SURFACES.

 * TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE... 
   MAINLY NORTH OF M-72. 

IMPACTS...

 * ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME ICY THIS EVENING LEADING TO 
   HAZARDOUS TRAVEL INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 

 * ICE ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER LINES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
   POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND
   ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
   THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-121000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130412T2300Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
916 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * HEAVY SNOW WILL ENTER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND 
   EARLY OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. 

 * SOME SLEET WILL MIX IN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON.

 * TOTAL SNOWFALL AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 5 AND 10 
   INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS 
   WILL BE AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON. 

IMPACTS...

 * ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SNOW COVERED AND HAZARDOUS FOR 
   TRAVEL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 

 * THE WET...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE SHOVELING DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND 
   SLEET ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO 
   POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$

JZ

564 
WWUS43 KAPX 120745
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

...WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

.THE MIXTURE OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CHANGE OVER
TO PERIODS OF SNOW AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING. ACCUMULATING
SNOWS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE FAR TIP OF THE MITT. 

MIZ016>019-021>024-121545-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130412T1600Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-
ALPENA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA
345 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL CHANGE
   OVER TO SNOW AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING.

 * TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. HIGHEST
   AMOUNTS NORTH OF M-68.

 * TOTAL SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN A
   QUARTER AND A HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND
   SOUTH OF M-68.

IMPACTS...

 * ICY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

 * ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES AND POWER LINES WILL
   LIKELY LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... 
   SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE 
   ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL 
   CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-025>036-041-042-121300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130412T1300Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...
LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...
STANDISH
345 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS
MORNING. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * A COMBINATION OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CHANGE
   OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING.

 * TOTAL SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND 
   ONE HALF INCH WILL BE SEEN ON TREES AND POWER LINES...WITH 
   LESS THAN THAT ON PAVED SURFACES. 

 * TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE... 
   MAINLY NORTH OF M-72. 

IMPACTS...

 * ICY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

 * ICE ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER LINES LEADING TO SOME POWER
   OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND 
   ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO 
   POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-121545-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130412T2300Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
345 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...BUT WILL
   GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

 * SOME SLEET WILL MIX IN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON.

 * TOTAL SNOWFALL OF BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
   WILL BE AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON.

IMPACTS...

 * SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS LEADING TO HAZARDOUS FOR TRAVEL.

 * THE WET...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE SHOVELING DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND 
   SLEET ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO 
   POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$

068 
WWUS43 KAPX 121118
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
718 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

...WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

MIZ016>019-021>024-121230-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130412T1600Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-
ALPENA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA
718 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

THE WORST OF THE WINTER WEATHER IS OVER...AS MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN
A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW AND DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DAY.

$$

MIZ020-025>036-041-042-121230-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130412T1300Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...
LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...
STANDISH
718 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

THE WORST OF THE WINTER WEATHER IS OVER...AS MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN
A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW AND DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. ONLY
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DAY.

$$

MIZ008-015-121930-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130412T2300Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
718 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...BUT WILL
   GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

 * TOTAL SNOWFALL OF BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS 
   WILL BE AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON. 

IMPACTS...

 * SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS LEADING TO HAZARDOUS FOR TRAVEL.

 * THE WET...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE SHOVELING DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND 
   SLEET ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO 
   POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

&&

$$


SMD

538 
WWUS43 KAPX 121425
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1025 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013


MIZ008-015-121530-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130412T2300Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1025 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
824 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BRING A WINTRY MESS OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  A LARGE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WHILE SNOW MOVES INTO
THE UPPER PENINSULA.  PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION OVER
TO ALL SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY COUNTIES UNDER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TONIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED THE
BRIDGE...WITH SNOW AT PLN. BIG GOULASH OF PRECIP TYPES SOUTH OF
THERE...WITH SLEET NOW THE PRIMARY P-TYPE AT THE OFFICE AND DOWN
TO HTL...AND FZG RAIN (AND SOME PLAIN RAIN ON SOME COASTS) IN NW
AND NE LOWER. ICING HAS BEEN MOST PROMINENT ON ELEVATED
SURFACES...EXCEPT WHERE SLEET HAS BEEN DOMINANT...AND THE PLN/FZRA
MIXTURE HAS FORMED NON-GLAZE ICE.

00Z APX SOUNDING HAS CONFIRMED THAT THE WARM NOSE ALOFT IS LESS
DEEP THAN PROGGED (3700FT OBSERVED VS 5000FT FROM THE 18Z NAM).
THIS LENDS CONFIDENCE TO THE IDEA THAT...AWAY FROM THE LAKE
MI/HURON COAST...EASTERN UPPER MI WILL BE ALMOST ALL SNOW. GIVEN
THE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND TROWAL DYNAMICS HEADING THAT
WAY...WILL UPGRADE EASTERN UPPER TO A WARNING...WITH 5 TO 10 INCH
ACCUMS THRU LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO NORTHERN LOWER AT THE MOMENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

SOME VERY EARLY THOUGHTS...

1) A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST 1/2 HOUR WITH CELLS
BETWEEN MT PLEASANT AND BIG RPDS. 18Z NAM BRINGS 100J/KG OF MUCAPE
AS FAR NORTH AS M-72 THRU 01Z-ISH...AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THESE AREAS.

2) THE WARM NOSE ALOFT IS NOT AS PROMINENT AS PROGGED. PRESENT
PL/FZRA MIX HERE AT OUR OFFICE FITS THE LARGER PICTURE...BUT PURE
PL AT TVC DOES NOT. THE WARM NOSE SHOULD BE MUCH MORE PROMINENT
OVER THERE (775MB TEMPS TO 4C)...AND PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID OR
FREEZING THERE. THIS IS A TENTATIVE ARGUING POINT IN FAVOR OF
LESS FZRA THAN PROGGED BY THE SHORT-TERM MODELS.

3) THE INITIAL FZRA WE HAD AT OUR OFFICE DID NOT FREEZE ON
ROADS...DESPITE AIR TEMPS AROUND 27F. THE RWIS SENSOR AT THE I-75
WATERS EXIT EXPLAINS THAT ONE...WITH ROAD SURFACE TEMPS 38-39F.
THANK YOU...HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE. OF COURSE...THIS WARMING
INFLUENCE WANES AND EVENTUALLY DISAPPEARS WITH TIME THIS EVENING.
(INTRO OF SLEET INTO THE P-TYPE MIX HAS SINCE CAUSED LOCAL ROADS
TO TURN SLUSHY. )

4) NO HEADLINE CHANGES FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE A /VERY/ ITCHY
TRIGGER FINGER REGARDING POTENTIAL UPGRADES TO WARNINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP OF INTEREST...THERE
WAS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WITH LOW CENTERS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN INDIANA. MEANWHILE...1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWED
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THE MAIN
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE NUMEROUS...WITH THE AMOUNT AND TYPE
OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS THE RESULTANT HEADLINES THE BIGGEST
QUESTIONS.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...POTENT STORM SYSTEM EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. FORCING/MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS
ALREADY FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE OF
BETWEEN PLUS 4 AND 5 CENTIGRADE IS LOCATED BETWEEN 700 AND 875 MB
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SUB FREEZING LAYER FROM 875 MB TO THE SURFACE
MANIFESTED BY A DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LIKELY JUST DEEP
ENOUGH TO REFREEZE PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET AT TIMES. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS ARE THEN
IN AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM NOSE ERODES OVERNIGHT...LIKELY CHANGING
PRECIPITATION OVER TO WET SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32...WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION (AND GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS) MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. MEANWHILE...MAINLY SNOW AND
SLEET IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT (ACCUMS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES) AND EASTERN UPPER (4 TO 8 INCHES). THIS REMAINS A VERY
CHALLENGING FORECAST AND COULD SEE A BUNCH OF SCENARIOS PLAYING
OUT SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. AN UPGRADE
TO WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING UPON THE AMOUNT OF ICE AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS A
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH...LIKELY MAKING FOR
MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

OVERVIEW: SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START THIS
FORECAST CYCLE...WITH A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS AND
TIGHT BAROCLINIC PATTERN STILL SITTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES (HIGHS
PUSHING THE 80S IN SRN OHIO YESTERDAY...BUT JUST INTO THE 40S IN NRN
MICHIGAN). CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW EXPECTED TO ADVANCE UP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH ALL SORTS
OF P-TYPE ISSUES TO ADDRESS. BEYOND THAT...LONG-WAVE TROUGHINESS
LOOKING TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA STARTING LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AS FORECAST NAO/AO
INDICES SWING BACK TOWARD THE POSITIVE SIDE OF THINGS. THIS SUGGESTS
A MODEST SHIFT TOWARD SOME "WARMER" WEATHER FOR THE EASTERN STATES
NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS WE GET INTO A
SW FLOW ALOFT REGIME. (BUT BEYOND THE CURRENT SEVEN DAY
FORECAST..."WARM UP" MAY BE ONLY BRIEF AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR
SLIDES BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK.)

FOR THE NEARER TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FILLING
AND SOMEWHAT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
WEAKISH SYNOPTIC FORCING STRETCHING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY. AT LEAST THE WARM NOSE ALOFT GETS SHUNTED WELL
EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT EASING P-TYPE FORECASTING ISSUES.
BUT INITIALLY...SECONDARY SFC LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK UP ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME LIGHTER PRECIP
(SNOW) GOING THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. BUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH H8 TEMPS DIPPING BACK DOWN TO -10C OR COLDER OVER
LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PROBABLY A
GOOD BET IN THE SNOW BELTS AS WINDS EVENTUALLY SWING BACK AROUND TO
W/NW. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HEATING/SFC BASED
CAPE VALUES RUNNING 50 TO 100 J/KG (PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS) AND LOW
VALUES OF SHEAR IN THE MIXED LAYER (10 TO 15 KNOTS AT BEST)...EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME CELLULAR AND SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE CWA WITH
LITTLE (IF ANY) ACCUMULATIONS AT THAT POINT PARTICULARLY AS SFC
TEMPS GO ABOVE FREEZING. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW/DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MODEST LAKE INSTABILITY LINGER WITH LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS PROBABLY CONTINUING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE ON
SUNDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION. BUT NEXT PULSE OF ENERGY (SHORT WAVE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
TODAY) AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW QUICKLY ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES...LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MAY ALREADY BE
SOME WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE
PRIMARILY RAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE AS STOUT LOWER LEVEL WARM LAYER
ADVECTS UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE LOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (EXTENDED PERIODS)...AS MENTIONED IN THE
OVERVIEW...PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER
LONG-WAVE TROUGHINESS ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES PLACING
THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC REGION AND SW FLOW
ALOFT. LARGELY QUIET/IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAYS COLD FRONT GETS SHOVED DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE NRN LAKES
REGION. BUT THE PATTERN RELOADS AGAIN OUT WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS YET ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY ADVANCES OUT OF THE MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ADVANCES INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS THE ECMWF HAS A
FURTHER NORTH/WEST TRACK PLACING MUCH OF THE CWA ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE STORM. GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND TRACKS THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
DETROIT GIVING NRN MICHIGAN A SNOW STORM. WILL HAVE A GENERIC CHANCE
FOR RAIN OR SNOW FOR NOW...AND KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS WE GO
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

ICY MIX OF PRECIP TONIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING FROM MVFR TO
IFR.

COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH...WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS LAKE HURON ON THURSDAY. PRECIP IS CONTINUING TO EXPAND
NORTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS EVENING...AND WILL REACH PLN
SHORTLY. MBL SHOULD SEE ALL -RA...UNTIL MIXING WITH -SN/DZ TOWARD
DAYBREAK. APN/TVC WILL SEE MIXED PL/FZRA...UNTIL THEY ALSO GO OVER
TO SN IN THE MORNING. PLN WILL SEE PL/SN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL TEND
TO LOWER WITH TIME...TRENDING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR. PRECIP
WILL TEND TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY (HANGING ON LONGEST AT APN)...BUT
WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS CONTINUING.

BLUSTERY EAST WINDS WILL BACK NE AND WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 446 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND THROUGH THE SRN AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
NEARSHORES SURROUNDING LAKES HURON AND MICHIGAN. THESE WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN UP BY FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE ALSO BACKING AROUND OUT OF
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ025>036-041-042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ016>036-041-
     042.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ008-015.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ341-342.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...JB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...BA
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...AS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
607 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
121145-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
607 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A WINTRY MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH
TONIGHT IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER MANY OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SURROUNDING LAKES HURON AND MICHIGAN.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
THREAT FOR RIVER AND LOWLAND FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE ONGOING
FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE HEARD THIS EVENING...SOUTH OF M-72
IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. REPORTS MAY BE MADE ONE OF THREE WAYS:

BY PHONE: 1-800-647-8676 (REPORTS ONLY PLEASE...NO FORECASTS)

BY FACEBOOK: FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.GAYLORD.GOV

BY TWITTER: TWITTER.COM/NWSGAYLORD

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.

AJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
636 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FREEZING RAIN    RHODES                  43.90N 84.18W
04/11/2013  M0.15 INCH       GLADWIN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ICE ACCUMS ON ELEVATED OBJECTS ONLY.
            FREEZING RAIN DURATION 6 HOURS

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
646 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     FREEZING RAIN    1 S BAY VIEW            45.37N 84.94W
04/11/2013  M0.08 INCH       EMMET              MI   COOP OBSERVER

            NCMC CAMPUS IN PETOSKEY. FREEZING RAIN
            DURATION 3 HOURS

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
747 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     FREEZING RAIN    2 WNW WATERS            44.91N 84.74W
04/11/2013  M0.15 INCH       OTSEGO             MI   OFFICIAL NWS OB

            6H ICE ACCUMULATION AT NWS GAYLORD. FREEZING
            RAIN DURATION 6 HOURS

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
810 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     SLEET            ROSCOMMON COUNTY AIRPORT44.36N 84.68W
04/11/2013  M0.5 INCH        ROSCOMMON          MI   OFFICIAL NWS OB

            LIQUID EQUIV 0.40 INCHES. MINIMAL ICING IN
            TREES. SLEET DURATION 6 HOURS

&&

IRIS SYSTEM