River Flood Warning 9, NWS Gaylord, MI

744 
WGUS43 KAPX 180539 CCA
FLWAPX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1239 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MICHIGAN...

  PINE RIVER NEAR RUDYARD AFFECTING CHIPEPWA COUNTY

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OF AROUND 2 INCHES FELL IN EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. RUNOFF HAS CAUSED THE PINE RIVER NEAR RUDYARD TO
RAPIDLY RISE TO FLOOD STAGE OF 17 FEET. A CREST BETWEEN 17 AND 18
FEET IS EXPECTED TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PERSONS IN THE WARNED AREAS SHOULD TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT PROPERTY 
FROM RISING WATER LEVELS. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...MOVE QUICKLY TO 
HIGHER GROUND.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION LATER MONDAY MORNING...OR AS NEW 
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC033-181600-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FL.W.0009.131118T0539Z-131118T2200Z/
/RUDM4.1.ER.131118T0525Z.131118T1400Z.131118T2200Z.NO/
1239 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
  PINE RIVER NEAR RUDYARD.
* AT 12:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 17.0 AND 18.0 FEET 
  EARLY MONDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...WATER REACHES BOTTOM OF PRAIRIE RD BRIDGE 
  DECK.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       TUE     WED     THU

PINE RIVER
  RUDYARD           17   17.0  MON 12 AM      12.7     7.8     5.5

$$

JZ

149 
WGUS43 KAPX 181229
FLWAPX
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
729 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MICHIGAN...

  PINE RIVER NEAR RUDYARD AFFECTING CHIPPEWA COUNTY

.WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OF AROUND 2 INCHES FELL IN EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. RUNOFF HAS CAUSED THE PINE RIVER NEAR RUDYARD TO
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE OF 17 FEET. THE RIVER CRESTED NEAR 18.1 FEET EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND WILL FALL BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PERSONS IN THE WARNED AREAS SHOULD TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT PROPERTY 
FROM RISING WATER LEVELS. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...MOVE QUICKLY TO 
HIGHER GROUND.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION LATER TODAY...OR AS NEW 
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.


&&

MIC033-190000-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FL.W.0009.131118T1229Z-131119T0000Z/
/RUDM4.1.ER.131118T0500Z.131118T0900Z.131118T1800Z.NR/
729 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE PINE RIVER NEAR RUDYARD.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING....
* AT  7:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...WATER REACHES BOTTOM OF PRAIRIE RD BRIDGE 
  DECK.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       TUE     WED     THU

PINE RIVER
  RUDYARD           17   17.8  MON 07 AM      14.1     8.8     6.4



$$

JZ

453 
WGUS83 KAPX 181652
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1152 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  PINE RIVER NEAR RUDYARD AFFECTING CHIPPEWA COUNTY

.THE PINE RIVER NEAR RUDYARD...WHICH CRESTED AT 18.12 FEET...HAS
NOW FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FALL 
QUICKLY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

MIC033-181722-
/O.CAN.KAPX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-131119T0000Z/
/RUDM4.1.ER.131118T0500Z.131118T0900Z.131118T1506Z.NR/
1152 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE PINE RIVER NEAR RUDYARD.
* AT 11:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.7 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 10:06 AM MONDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 12.1 FEET BY TOMORROW
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...WATER REACHES BOTTOM OF PRAIRIE RD BRIDGE 
  DECK.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       TUE     WED     THU

PINE RIVER
  RUDYARD           17   16.7  MON 11 AM      14.0     8.6     6.4

$$

JPB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1105 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 427 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING PUSHING
A POTENT COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY LATE EVENING. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP...DRAGGING MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTER IS JUST NE OF MICHIGAN NOW. INITIAL COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW THRU ERN LWR MICHIGAN ATTM. SHARP WIND
SHIFT FROM S/SW TO W/NW SHOWS CLEARLY IN REGIONAL SFC OBS...AS
DOES A MARKED INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WIND GUSTS HAVE REACHED AROUND 40 KTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE...
AND AROUND 30 KTS FOR MORE INLAND LOCATIONS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING
OF SURFACE WINDS IS STILL EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE TIGHTEST LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REACHES
MICHIGAN. AS EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD WRAP-AROUND PRECIP HAS
OVERSPREAD OUR ENTIRE CWA AT THIS HOUR...AND WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE AS WE HEAD INTO OVERNIGHT. STRONG CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE ANY REMAINING RAIN OVER
TO SNOW AND WILL CERTAINLY ACTIVE THE LAKES...TARGETING THE
TYPICAL NW FLOW AREAS FOR HIGHEST POPS AND POTENTIAL SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK. STILL...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL SHORT
OF FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING DESPITE STRONG CAA. THUS...ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINOR EVEN IN THE SNOWBELT REGIONS (I.E.
UNDER AN INCH).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

CONVECTIVE LINE HAS CLEARED THE CWA TO THE EAST AND HAVE CLEARED
ALL OF OUR COUNTIES FROM THE TORNADO WATCH. DRY SLOT SLIDING UP
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN HAS DIMINISHED THE PRECIP ACROSS A GOOD
PART OF LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE SRN COUPLE TIERS OF
COUNTIES OF THIS CWA. BUT NICE BATCH OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP JUST
BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN
AND WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. STILL A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS BATCH OF OF
RAINFALL...UNDER THE DRY SLOT AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND
SRN COUNTIES COULD YET SEE ISOLATED STORMS. BUT BY AND LARGE...
STORM THREAT IS DONE. NOW WAITING FOR THE GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET CORE PUNCHING
ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND PARTS OF SRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AFTERNOON...WHILE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN UP ACROSS
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ONGOING ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO INDIANA AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AND WITHIN
CORRIDOR OF VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS TO WORK WITH. INSTABILITY OF
COURSE DECREASES NORTHWARD INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND HAS KEPT
SEVERE STORMS AT BAY UP THIS WAY. BUT STILL HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS
TO GO AS MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE TRAVERSES LOWER MICHIGAN. MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS CWA HAS BEEN HEAVY RAIN/URBAN
FLOODING.

TONIGHT...AS STATED...MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH...BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. BUT OBVIOUSLY THE
VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF
60 KNOTS WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT UNTIL THE LINE
CLEARS THE REGION.

THEN...COLD FRONT STILL SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING...
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...PUSHING MAIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT
SHOWERS/STORMS EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WRAP AROUND/
DEFORMATION SHOWERS EXPANDING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
WISCONSIN WILL SLIP UP THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL
POPS GOING...DIMINISHING S-N OVERNIGHT AS DEFORMATION PRECIP LIFTS
UP THROUGH THE REGION. RAPID COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED LATE
OVERNIGHT AND LOOKING TO GET WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT GOING BY
MORNING. JUST MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER FROPA...18Z NAM GUIDANCE HAS 50 TO 60 KNOTS IN THE MIXED
LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING
TOP END GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. SO...STILL NOT CONVINCED
THAT HIGH WIND WARNING/STORM FORCE GUSTS CRITERIA WILL BE MET
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES SILL LOOK TO OCCUR ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE INTO THE STRAITS AS WELL AS THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE. CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO TAKE ANY WIND RELATED
WARNINGS DOWN AT THIS POINT AS IT WILL BE WINDY AFTER ALL. HAVE
TWEAKED WIND GUSTS IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE 35 TO 45 KNOT
WIND GUSTS...BUT HAVE A FEW GUSTS UP AROUND 50 KNOTS RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

LONG TERM FOCUS INITIALLY CENTERS ON THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF
DEEP/HIGH IMPACT STORM RACING NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT
SUNRISE MONDAY. AS MENTIONED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN AN PROGRESSIVE ONE...WITH OVERHEAD DEEP
TROUGHING QUICKLY RELAXING AS FLOW REGIME TAKES ON A MUCH MORE ZONAL
FLAVOR HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND MID WEEK. INCREASING HINTS THAT A
STEP-DOWN PROCESS TO A MUCH COLDER PATTERN TAKES HOLD
THERE-ON-AFTER... WITH LEAD WAVE/COLD FRONT BRINGING A SURGE OF
COOLER AIR HEADING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A
MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CORE OF ARCTIC AIR VISITING THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW WITH REGARDS TO
THESE LATTER FEATURES AS FAST FLOW PATTERN IS ONE GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH. FORECAST ATTENTION FOR THIS CYCLE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED ON MONDAY'S EVENTS...WITH A MUCH MORE GENERIC APPROACH
TAKEN FOR THE LATTER PERIODS.

WINDS WILL BE A'HOWLING MONDAY MORNING WITHIN TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS SUB 975MB BEHEMOTH ROCKETS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. CAA IS MAXIMIZED DURING THIS
TIME...ONLY INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS/ALLOWING VERY GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE. WINDIEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE STRAITS (FORCED FUNNELING) AND POINTS NORTH (TIGHTEST GRADIENT).
WHILE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS (50 KNOTS OR HIGHER) NOT
ANTICIPATED...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED REPORTS OF SUCH RIGHT
THROUGH THE STRAITS AND UP ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR COASTLINE. HIGH
WIND WARNING ALREADY OUT TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY THROUGH MID
MORNING. NO DOUBT IT WILL BE WINDY ELSEWHERE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. JUST TO ADD TO THE COMPLEXITY...LAKE
INDUCED SNOWS LOOK TO RAMP UP RATHER QUICKLY IN FAVORED AREAS AS H8
TEMPERATURES APPROACH -10C OVER THE BIG WATERS. DEEPEST SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT RESIDES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH DEEP MOISTURE UP AND
BEYOND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS. DELTA T/S ON THE
ORDER OF 16C NOT OVERWHELMING...BUT OTHER THERMODYNAMICS/KINEMATICS
NOTHING TO SNEEZE AT. SNOWFLAKE FRAGMENTATION AND MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP SLR SOMEWHAT ON THE LEAN SIDE (10/12 TO 1).
STILL...COULD EASILY SEE SIZABLE AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...LOCALLY
HIGHER...FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF CHIPPEWA
COUNTY. MOISTURE PROFILES NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE/DEEP OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN...AND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF THE WHITE STUFF
SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE NORTHWEST LOWER SNOWBELTS. ABOVE MAKES FOR
SOME TRICKY HEADLINE DECISIONS FOR EASTERN UPPER. USUALLY LIKE TO
WRAP SUCH IN A WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE...IN THIS CASE A WARNING
GIVEN EXPECTED WIND GUSTS. TIMING...HOWEVER...REMAINS FAR FROM
IDEAL...WITH WINDS RAMPING UP WELL BEFORE SNOWS ARRIVE. WITH
INHERITED HIGH WIND WARNING ALREADY IN PLACE...DECISION ON THIS END
IS TO CONTINUE WITH SUCH FOR NOW...FULLY AWARE AN EVENTUAL
TRANSITION TO A WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT
SOME POINT FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY. LINGERING EVENING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS
WIND DOWN RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS EFFECTS OF STORM ARE
RAPID TO EXIT (THAT WHOLE PROGRESSIVE FLOW THING).

REGION LOOKS TO CATCH A WELL EARNED BREAK TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. INITIAL COOL DOWN TALKED
ABOUT EARLIER KICKED OFF BY APPROACHING WEAK WAVE/ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY HEADING THROUGH THURSDAY. FORCING AND MOISTURE
NOT OVERWHELMING...AND INHERITED CHANCE RAIN/SNOW MENTION MORE THAN
ADEQUATE AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE. BIGGER STORY FOR THE LONG RANGE
REMAINS GROWING CONSENSUS FOR A SLUG OF ARCTIC AIR TO DROP THROUGH
THE REGION HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SOME PROGS AS COLD AS
NEAR -20C AT H8! DEGREE OF PATTERN AMPLIFICATION STILL IN DOUBT
HOWEVER...AND SOME HINTS THAT TROUGH MAY NOT BE AS DEEP AS
ADVERTISED...WITH JUST A GLANCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR. EITHER
WAY...LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE GUNS WILL GET ACTIVATED ONCE AGAIN AS
HIGHS DROP INTO THE 20S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1105 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR THRU THE 24 TAF FORECAST
PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD WRAP-AROUND RAIN COMES TO AN END AND NW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU MONDAY...DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. STRONG W/NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 TO 40 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW LEVEL GRADIENT STARTS TO LOOSEN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 427 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIP UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION BY MID
TO LATE EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF STORM FORCE
POSSIBLE. WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE BY MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL
REMAIN SOLID GALE FORCE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ020>036-041-042.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ008-015.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ016>019.
LH...STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ342.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ322.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...BA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1100 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
181100-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1100 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT. THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM:

* WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ON THE LAKES. SEE
  ONGOING MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.

* WINDS OVER LAND WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
  AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE
  COMMON...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
  LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS. PLEASE SEE THE
  ONGOING HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY. THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM:

* HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER
  MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING. SEE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

* GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
  OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. SEE MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.

* SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
  MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT
  REGIONS. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN
  AND CENTRAL CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE
  GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING
  SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED. DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY
YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1017 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CHARLEVOIX              45.32N 85.26W
11/17/2013  E3.00 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   PUBLIC

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0900 PM     HEAVY RAIN       INTERLOCHEN             44.65N 85.75W
11/17/2013  M1.67 INCH       GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   PUBLIC

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0835 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW LEVERING           45.61N 84.81W
11/17/2013  M2.21 INCH       EMMET              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 12 HOURS

0827 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LOVELLS                 44.81N 84.47W
11/17/2013  M1.33 INCH       CRAWFORD           MI   PUBLIC

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 12 HOURS

0807 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE TORCH LAKE        45.06N 85.32W
11/17/2013                   ANTRIM             MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

0805 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E HONOR               44.67N 85.94W
11/17/2013  M1.35 INCH       BENZIE             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0757 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MANCELONA               44.90N 85.05W
11/17/2013  M1.11 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 12 HOURS

0753 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE PETOSKEY          45.36N 84.95W
11/17/2013  M1.68 INCH       EMMET              MI   COOP OBSERVER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0741 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W IRONTON             45.26N 85.22W
11/17/2013  M2.16 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   PUBLIC

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S SAULT STE. MARIE    46.47N 84.37W
11/17/2013  M2.50 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION SAULT STE MARIE /ANJ/ HEAVY
            RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW PELLSTON           45.57N 84.80W
11/17/2013  M2.10 INCH       EMMET              MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION PELLSTON RGNL AIRPORT OF EMMET
            COUNTY /PLN/ HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE TRAVERSE CITY      44.74N 85.58W
11/17/2013  M1.82 INCH       GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION CHERRY CAPITAL AIRPORT /TVC/
            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW GAYLORD            45.02N 84.70W
11/17/2013  M1.40 INCH       OTSEGO             MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION OTSEGO COUNTY AIRPORT /GLR/
            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE MAPLE CITY        44.85N 85.84W
11/17/2013  M2.05 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   COOP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER STATION MAPLE CITY 1E /MAPM4/
            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W SOUTH BOARDMAN      44.64N 85.32W
11/17/2013  M1.15 INCH       KALKASKA           MI   COOP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER STATION SOUTH BOARDMAN 2W
            /BDMM4/ HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW WATERS             44.91N 84.72W
11/17/2013  M1.40 INCH       OTSEGO             MI   OFFICIAL NWS OB

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0643 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WILLIAMSBURG            44.77N 85.40W
11/17/2013  M1.45 INCH       GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0642 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S CLAM RIVER          44.88N 85.28W
11/17/2013  M1.72 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WNW KINROSS           46.28N 84.53W
11/17/2013  M1.87 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       KELDEN                  46.21N 84.31W
11/17/2013  M1.33 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 18 HOURS

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW KELDEN            46.19N 84.32W
11/17/2013  M1.78 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MI   COOP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER STATION PICKFORD 3NE /PICM4/
            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW TROUT LAKE        46.19N 85.02W
11/17/2013  M1.69 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MI   COOP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER STATION TROUT LAKE /TRTM4/
            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE FRANKFORT         44.65N 86.20W
11/17/2013  M1.63 INCH       BENZIE             MI   COOP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER STATION 2 NE FRANKFORT /FRKM4/
            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0550 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W OSSINEKE            44.91N 83.45W
11/17/2013  M56 MPH          ALPENA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0534 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BARTON CITY             44.68N 83.60W
11/17/2013                   ALCONA             MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT
            ALCONA COUNTY.

0511 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HALE                    44.38N 83.81W
11/17/2013                   IOSCO              MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STERLING                44.03N 84.02W
11/17/2013                   ARENAC             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...PHONE LINES
            DOWN...SHINGLES AND SOFFIT RIPPED OFF OF
            SEVERAL HOUSES. M-76 IN TOWN IS CLOSED DUE
            TO TREES OVER ROAD.

0509 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WHITTEMORE              44.23N 83.80W
11/17/2013                   IOSCO              MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

0503 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S ATLANTA             44.94N 84.15W
11/17/2013                   MONTMORENCY        MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROSCOMMON               44.50N 84.59W
11/17/2013                   ROSCOMMON          MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW MAPLE RIDGE       44.13N 83.93W
11/17/2013                   ARENAC             MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREES DOWN.

0443 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE FREDERIC          44.83N 84.71W
11/17/2013                   CRAWFORD           MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. TREES
            DOWN OVER I-75 BETWEEN FREDERIC AND WATERS.

0436 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW EAST JORDAN       45.18N 85.15W
11/17/2013  M1.95 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 2 HOURS

0430 PM     TSTM WND GST     GLADWIN                 43.98N 84.49W
11/17/2013  E62 MPH          GLADWIN            MI   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAINT HELEN             44.36N 84.42W
11/17/2013                   ROSCOMMON          MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW SKIDWAY LAKE      44.18N 84.13W
11/17/2013                   OGEMAW             MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES DOWN.

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NE SPARR              45.14N 84.48W
11/17/2013                   OTSEGO             MI   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.

0427 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SW BLISS              45.64N 84.91W
11/17/2013  M1.48 INCH       EMMET              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

0423 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W GLADWIN             43.99N 84.56W
11/17/2013                   GLADWIN            MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN OVER
            ROADWAYS IN WESTERN GLADWIN COUNTY. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0422 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSE SOUTH BOARDMAN    44.58N 85.22W
11/17/2013  M1.19 INCH       KALKASKA           MI   PUBLIC

            0.90 INCHES FELL IN 20 MINUTES. HEAVY RAIN
            DURATION 12 HOURS

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROSCOMMON               44.50N 84.59W
11/17/2013                   ROSCOMMON          MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE WATERS             44.89N 84.69W
11/17/2013                   OTSEGO             MI   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            BOTH SOUTHBOUND AND NORTHBOUND LANES OF I-75
            CLOSED DUE TO TREES DOWN OVER INTERSTATE.
            BETWEEN MILE MARKER 269 AND 270.

0400 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW EAST JORDAN       45.17N 85.17W
11/17/2013  M1.83 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES

0400 PM     HEAVY RAIN       INDIAN RIVER            45.42N 84.62W
11/17/2013  M0.90 INCH       CHEBOYGAN          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 1 HOUR

0400 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CADILLAC                44.25N 85.42W
11/17/2013  M1.79 INCH       WEXFORD            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 10 HOURS

0352 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LAKE CITY               44.33N 85.21W
11/17/2013                   MISSAUKEE          MI   PUBLIC

            INTERSECTIONS FLOODING.

0330 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW ALLENVILLE         46.00N 84.83W
11/17/2013  M1.06 INCH       MACKINAC           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 7 HOURS 30 MINUTES

0330 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE TRAVERSE CITY     44.73N 85.60W
11/17/2013                   GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING AT THE INTERSECTION OF GARFIELD RD
            AND S. AIRPORT RD.

0330 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OLD MISSION             44.97N 85.49W
11/17/2013                   GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOCAL ROADS FLASH FLOODING.

0330 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WSW TRAVERSE CITY     44.75N 85.63W
11/17/2013                   GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            INTERSECTIONS OF 16TH AND 14TH STREETS AT
            VETERANS DRIVE FLOODED.

0330 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ESE CADILLAC          44.24N 85.40W
11/17/2013                   WEXFORD            MI   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            FLASH FLOODING AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            BUSINESS 131 AND GRANITE ST. FLASH FLOODING
            ALSO IN RESIDENTIAL AREAS NEARBY.

0315 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PARKDALE                44.27N 86.30W
11/17/2013                   MANISTEE           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER US-31 NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            M-55.

0310 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EAST JORDAN             45.16N 85.13W
11/17/2013  M1.12 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            YARDS AND STREETS HAVE STANDING WATER OVER
            THEM. HEAVY RAIN DURATION 35 MINUTES

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SAULT STE. MARIE        46.48N 84.37W
11/17/2013  E1.25 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12-14 INCHES OF STANDING WATER IN DOWNTOWN
            SAULT STE. MARIE MAINLY DUE TO CLOGGED
            DRAINS.

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BOYNE CITY              45.18N 84.96W
11/17/2013  M1.55 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 12 HOURS

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW WELLSTON          44.23N 85.96W
11/17/2013  M2.06 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   COOP OBSERVER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW WELLSTON          44.23N 85.96W
11/17/2013  M1.52 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   COOP OBSERVER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1215 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW WATERS             44.91N 84.72W
11/18/2013  M2.06 INCH       OTSEGO             MI   COOP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER STATION 9 SSW GAYLORD /APXM4/
            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1221 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE CADILLAC           44.26N 85.40W
11/17/2013  M2.67 INCH       WEXFORD            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1224 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 17 ESE GOETZVILLE       46.02N 83.74W
11/17/2013  M45 MPH          CHIPPEWA           MI   PUBLIC

&&

NWS GAYLORD MI
IRIS SYSTEM