Gale Watch 7, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
207 AM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS AND ATTENDANT COLD AIR WILL PRODUCE
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL RIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK
WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

CURRENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN CHIPPEWA COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE. HAD A REPORT OF 6 INCHES IN 18 HRS UP THERE...WITH
POSSIBLY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THAT SNOW COMING IN A HEAVY SNOW
BAND THAT WAS HITTING THE AREA EARLIER. THAT BAND HAS SHOWN SIGNS
OF WEAKENING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. BACKING WINDS TO OUT OF THE
WEST WILL GRADUALLY LEAVE ONLY THE PARADISE AREA IN THE SNOW BY
12Z (WHEN THE ADVISORY ENDS. STILL PLAN ON THIS ADVISORY BEING
DROPPED AT THAT TIME.

BARELY ANY UPDATES NEEDED OUT SIDE OF SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING
SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WNW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH AS WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING SOUTH AND WEST OF NRN MICHIGAN. THIS
OUT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE GTV BAY
AREA BY 12Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

AFTER FURTHER CONSIDERATION...WILL BE POSTING AN LES ADVISORY FOR
CHIPPEWA SHORTLY. DOMINANT BAND POKING INTO THE TWIN SAULTS HAS
BECOME A LITTLE LESS WOBBLY IN THE LAST HOUR ON THE MONTREAL
RIVER RADAR. SAULT MI DROPPING TO 1/4SM IN +SN...AND PICKING UP
0.06 LIQUID IN LAST HOUR IN THE AUTOMATED GAGE...BOTH BOTHER ME.
WEB CAMS AT THE LOCKS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME HEALTHY...SUSTAINED
SNOWFALL. WILL KICK UP ACCUMS ALONG A PARADISE-SAULT LINE TO 3-5.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1021 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

STEADY AS SHE GOES. LES BANDING CONTINUE TO BE MORE IMPRESSIVE
INTO CHIPPEWA CO INTO NW LOWER...BUT IN BOTH AREAS LES CONTINUES.
WILL NEED TO EXTEND HIGHER POPS DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT. CAN REDUCE
ACCUMS IN NORTHERN LOWER...LES ISN/T AMOUNTING TO VERY MUCH HERE.
NORTHERN CHIPPEWA STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE.

MEANWHILE...WHERE IT ISN/T SNOWING...IT/S PRETTY MUCH CLEAR. SKIES
HAVE OPENED UP NICELY IN NE LOWER (OUTSIDE OF THE BAND GRAZING
ROGERS CITY) AND IN MACKINAC/SE CHIPPEWA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
REASONABLY TIGHT...AND IT WON/T BE AN /IDEAL/ RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...BUT WILL BE REDUCING TEMPS IN THESE AREAS. SOME MESONET
READINGS...RACO AND ENGADINE IN EASTERN UPPER MI DOWN TO 6F...
CLEAR LK STATE PARK (MONTMORENCY CO) IS 2F.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES) IN NORTHERN LOWER MI HAS BEEN DIMINISHING
IN INTENSITY...LARGELY AS EXPECTED. COVERAGE REMAINS FAIRLY
HIGH...AND WILL SPREAD HIGH POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS A SOMEWHAT
BROADER PORTIONS OF NW/N CENTRAL LOWER. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
REGARDLESS.

LES REMAINS MORE VIGOROUS INTO EASTERN UPPER...AS THE LONG FETCH
OFFSETS THE DRIER INCOMING AIR. THE DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY WIN
(EVENTUALLY)...THOUGH COULD SEE PUSHING ACCUMS UP A SMIDGE
(THOUGH STILL 3 INCHES OR LESS).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

CURRENTLY, WINDS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER ARE WNW IN N LOWER AND
MORE W IN E UPPER. THE SNOW BANDS ARE MORE OF THE TEXTBOOK WNW SNOW
BANDS OVER NW LOWER. AS THE LAST OF THE TROUGH THAT WAS BROUGHT ON
BY THE ARCTIC TROUGH LAST NIGHT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST,
ALLOWING THE BANDS TO HAVE TO STRETCH EAST INTO PORTIONS OF NC AND
NE LOWER. MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER IS AROUND 70 TO 80 % BACK
INTO NW WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT...THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
SO THE DRIER AIR UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THE
BANDS, BUT NOT STOP THEM. WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AT 06Z STILL
EXPECTED TO BE -20C OR SO, WILL EXPECT THAT THE SNOW BANDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH INERTIA. HOWEVER, AFTER 06Z, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT W, AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND -16C IN
N LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z. WITH THE DRY AIR (850-700 MB LAYER RH AROUND
30-40%) AND THE INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING TO AROUND 2500 FT. THE
SNOW WILL PROBABLY SHUT OFF, OR AT THE LEAST DIMINISH TO FLURRIES.
SO AS FAR AS SNOW AMOUNTS GO WILL EXPECT THAT MINOR TO LIGHT AMOUNTS
WILL FALL, WITH MOST OF THE SNOW IN THE FAVORED WNW FLOW REGION OF
OF THE SNOW BELTS IN NW LOWER. CAN'T RULE OUT ANY MODERATE AMOUNTS,
BUT THINK THAT THEY ARE LOW PROBABILITY TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING DURING THE DAY ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL SHUT OFF BY AROUND 18Z AS THE -10C ISOTHERM MAKES
AN APPEARANCE INTO N LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER, THE WARM FRONT THAT
WILL IS USHERING THIS WARMER AIR, WILL PRODUCE SNOW. LOOKING AT THE
SNOW RATIOS (STILL 17:1 TO 20:1 OVER THE FORECAST AREA) AND THE
MOISTURE EXPECTED (MIXING RATIO OF AROUND 2G/KG) WILL EXPECT
MODERATE AMOUNTS IN E UPPER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS IN N
LOWER. WINDS WILL THE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM,
SO THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

LONG WAVE RIDGING CURRENTLY LOCKED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WITH DEEP
LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. GREAT LAKES REGION SITTING WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT...A MORE
TYPICAL WINTER PATTERN. FLOW PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STATIC THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR AND A COUPLE WEATHER
SYSTEMS CYCLE THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SOME HINT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BREAK
DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MODERATING
TEMPS IN THE EASTERN CONUS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. SO IN A NUTSHELL...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST BUT POTENTIALLY
MODERATING TO SEASONABLE READINGS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEARER TERM...A COUPLE WAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING MORE ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO NRN MICHIGAN. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO BRING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE COLD.
WEAK-ISH LEAD MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE LATER
SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS/WARM FRONT (WITH
PERHAPS A WEAK CLOSED SFC LOW) EXPECTED TO NOSE THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...STRETCHING OUT ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN/SRN LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR
SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER AIR TO FLOOD INTO NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS 0C 850 MB ISOTHERM ADVANCES INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
INITIALLY...PULSE OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF SNOW LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGH EARLY-MID FRIDAY EVENING. BUT TRENDS STILL SUPPORT THE
NOTION OF A DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS...EXPECT LIGHT SNOWFALL TO TAPER OFF S-N
FRIDAY EVENING PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MUCH WARMER AIR. MAY SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF
AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT STRIPS OUT...ALTHOUGH SFC BASED SATURATED
LAYER SHRINKS TOP DOWN RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING IMPLYING THAT ANY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
SLATED TO DIVE INTO NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
SPINNING UP A FAIRLY DEEP SFC LOW THAT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WE START THE DAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR/DRY SLOT WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW STILL LINGERING OVER THE NRN PART OF THE
CWA CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT ITSELF. BUT CONDITIONS WILL START TO
DETERIORATE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST AND SURGE OF SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR
OVERSPREADS THE REGION (850 MB TEMPS RAPIDLY COOLING TO -20C TO -25C
BY SUNDAY MORNING). I ENVISION A HYBRID OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW BLOSSOMING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE ADVANCES THROUGH THE REGION AND
THERMAL PROFILES BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE CONVECTION. BUT THE
BIGGEST DOWNTURN COMES SATURDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
BOUNDARY BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION SETTING THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD
LAKE SNOWS. WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER TAPPING 40 TO 50 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW (BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS?). RIGHT NOW...HAVE PAINTED SNOW ACCUMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELTS
AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. NOT QUITE THERE FOR ANY WARNING
CRITERIA AT THIS POINT (SAVE FOR THE VSBY ISSUES)...AND THUS NOT
PLANNING ANY WATCHES YET (NOT TO MENTION ITS 5TH PERIOD AND BEYOND).
ULTIMATELY WE WILL LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF HEADLINES FOR THIS
SYSTEM...AND WATCHES MAY BE CONSIDERED OVERNIGHT AND/OR
TOMORROW.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN THE SNOW BELTS ACCORDINGLY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO SOME EXTENT AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO STAY IN THE TEENS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY (EXTENDED PERIODS)...REMAINS COLD RIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW TO ABOVE ZERO. LAKE
SNOWS WILL ALSO PERSIST AND WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING IN THE SNOW
BELTS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER TROUGH AND CORE OF COLDEST AIR
MAY BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING OUT WEST TRIES
TO ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. A PEEK BEYOND THE
CURRENT SEVEN DAY FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK. MOST RECENT RUNS (12Z) OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST P-TYPE
ISSUES WITH THIS STORM ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN YET AGAIN AS WARM AIR
GETS PULLED UP INTO THE REGION. BUT THAT'S WAY OUT THERE IF FORECAST
LAND AND WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

BRIEF EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. -SN
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

DRIER AIR IS ENTERING THE REGION ACROSS LAKE MI...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE PLAINS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING...AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST (EXCEPT AT APN)...BUT WILL BE MOSTLY VFR.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE- WARD FROM THE
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...AND -SN WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE.
HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS ALL SITES...OTHERWISE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST THU JAN 17 2013

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
FRIDAY, THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT CLIPPER THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ONCE
THROUGH THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GALES, ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN
FOR LATE ON THE DAY, AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ008.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...BA
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
411 AM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
191215-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
411 AM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SNOW WILL MOVE IN OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY...THEN CHANGE OVER
TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY. TRAVEL MAY REMAIN HAZARDOUS
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LAKE INDUCED
SNOW...CAN BE EXPECTED IN FAVORED SNOW BELTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND
EAST UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH WINDS SUNDAY WILL GENERATE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND REPORTS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. REPORTS MAY BE
MADE ONE OF THREE WAYS:

BY PHONE: 1-800-647-8676 (REPORTS ONLY PLEASE...NO FORECASTS)

BY FACEBOOK: FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.GAYLORD.GOV

BY TWITTER: TWITTER.COM/NWSGAYLORD

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.

SMD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
403 AM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     HEAVY SNOW       PARADISE                46.63N 85.05W
01/18/2013  M5.0 INCH        CHIPPEWA           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 HR TOTAL THRU 4 AM. 21 HR TOTAL THRU 4 AM
            IS 8.5 INCHES. SNOWDEPTH 10 INCHES.

&&

IRIS SYSTEM