Alert archive / Michigan / Gale Warnings in 2013

Gale Warning 7, NWS Gaylord, MI

January 18, 2013

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this gale warning at Jan 18, 2013, 10:06 PM EST. It took effect at Jan 19, 2013, 3:00 PM EST. It was in force for 22 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 18, 2013, 10:06 PM EST (03:06 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 19, 2013, 3:00 PM EST
Expired
Jan 20, 2013, 12:58 PM EST
In force
22 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

098 
WHUS73 KAPX 190306
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1006 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

LMZ345-346-191200-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-130119T0900Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-130119T0900Z/
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0008.130119T1800Z-130120T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.W.0007.130119T2000Z-130120T1000Z/
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1006 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST
SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. THE GALE
WARNING FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE GALE WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-342-344-191200-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-130119T0600Z/
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0008.130119T1800Z-130120T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.W.0007.130119T2000Z-130120T1000Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
1006 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST
SUNDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE GALE
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ348-191200-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-130119T0600Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0008.130120T0600Z-130120T1800Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1006 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$

LMZ341-190415-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-130119T0600Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
1006 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ349-190900-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-130119T0900Z/
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1006 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347-191200-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0008.130120T0600Z-130120T1800Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
1006 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD
7 follow-up statements
758 
WHUS73 KAPX 190934
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
434 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

LHZ347-348-191745-
/O.EXB.KAPX.GL.W.0007.130120T0300Z-130120T1800Z/
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0008.130120T0600Z-130120T1800Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
434 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-346-349-LMZ341-191745-
/O.EXB.KAPX.GL.W.0007.130120T0300Z-130120T1800Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
434 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-342-344>346-191745-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0007.130119T2000Z-130120T1000Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
434 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 AM EST SUNDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
EST SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD
849 
WHUS73 KAPX 191625
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1125 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

LMZ323-342-344>346-200030-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0007.130119T2000Z-130120T1000Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1125 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 AM EST SUNDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
EST SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>349-LMZ341-200030-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0007.130120T0300Z-130120T1800Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
1125 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST SUNDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD
816 
WHUS73 KAPX 192046
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
346 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

LMZ323-342-344>346-200500-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130120T1000Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
346 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>349-LMZ341-200500-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0007.130120T0300Z-130120T1800Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
346 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST SUNDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-322-200500-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0010.130120T0300Z-130120T1800Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
346 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD
310 
WHUS73 KAPX 200321
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1021 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

LMZ323-342-344>346-201000-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130120T1000Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1021 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>349-LMZ341-201130-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130120T1800Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
1021 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-322-201130-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-130120T1800Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1021 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD
951 
WHUS73 KAPX 200859
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
359 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

LMZ323-342-344>346-201300-
/O.EXT.KAPX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130120T1300Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
359 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-346-LMZ341-201300-
/O.EXT.KAPX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130120T1300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
359 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347>349-201700-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130120T1800Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
359 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-322-201700-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-130121T0000Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
359 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD
941 
WHUS73 KAPX 201429
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
929 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

LHZ347>349-201800-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130120T1800Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
929 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-202200-
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-130120T2200Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
929 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-346-202230-
/O.EXA.KAPX.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-130121T0000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
929 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-322-202230-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-130121T0000Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
929 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD
052 
WHUS73 KAPX 201758
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1258 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

LHZ347>349-202200-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130120T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-130121T1000Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1258 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY. THE GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-322-201900-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-130121T0000Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1258 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ345-346-202200-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-130121T1000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
1258 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-202200-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-130121T2200Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1258 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 18, 7:31 PM EST, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 18, 7:31 PM EST, 2 hours 35 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
731 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

THE FIRST OF TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE TIP-OF-THE-MITT AND THE
UPPER PENINSULA INTO TONIGHT. MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE IN FOR
SATURDAY...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. BEHIND THIS SECOND SYSTEM...VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 731 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

SNOW CONTINUES IN EASTERN UPPER MI. SAULT MI HAD 2.8 INCHES IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS...WITH THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO LIKELY IMPROVING AS
THE SUPER-COLD AIR EJECTS. FORCING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW NOW IN NW WI ZIPS EAST...BUT 11PM CONCLUSION TO THE
HEADLINE THERE MAY BE A LITTLE PREMATURE. SNOW HAS STOPPED IN THE
STRAITS AREA AND POINTS SOUTH...AND THE ADVISORY FOR THE TIP OF
THE MITT WAS CANCELLED SOME TIME AGO.

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF CVX-GLR-OSC. TEMPS SURGING ABOVE
FREEZING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TVC 37F...MBL 39...AND LUDINGTON
40. EVEN CAD...UP IN THE HILLS...IS 34F. PER UPSTREAM OBS...DO NOT
EXPECT PLACES IN THE FAR SW TO RISE TOO MUCH FURTHER...BUT THEY
CERTAINLY WON/T FALL. ELSEWHERE...A SIGNIFICANT TEMP BUMP WILL BE
SEEN EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF PLN...WHICH IS ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS THE
FRONT WILL GET.

THERE IS VERY...VERY LITTLE LOW CLOUD IN THE WARM SECTOR
PRESENTLY. THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER IS MANAGING TO
GENERATE SOME STRATOCU 2-3K FT OFF THE GROUND...AND THERE
CERTAINLY IS A WINDOW FOR THIS TO LOWER SOME AND INTRODUCE SOME
DZ/FLURRY ACTIVITY. BUT WITH SURFACE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS IN
THE WARM SECTOR AROUND 10F AND NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH...A
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE
CARDS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...IN THE STRAITS AREA IN
PARTICULAR...MIGHT HAVE A BETTER CHANCE. EVEN IF WE GENERATE DZ IN
THE WARM SECTOR...THE PLACES THAT COULD GET /FREEZING/ DRIZZLE ARE
OBVIOUSLY GETTING SMALLER AS WE CONTINUE TO WARM ADVECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

TIRING FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH LOTS OF ISSUES TO
THINK ABOUT THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING LOW
PRESSURE OVER NW WISCONSIN WITH OUR WARM FRONT NOW STRETCHING ACROSS
GREEN BAY AND JUST INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN (34F NOW AT MBS).
ASSOCIATED PULSE OF WARM ADVECTION AND RESULTING AXIS OF
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL NOW STRETCHES ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
INTO THE STRAITS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THAT
REGION WITH SOME ELEMENTS OF ENHANCED F-GEN BANDING WITHIN THE
BROADER PRECIP SHIELD. GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE
WORKING OUT OK SO FAR. RECEIVED A SNOWFALL REPORT OF AROUND 3
INCHES IN CHEBOYGAN THROUGH THIS EVENT. LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL
IMPACT IN WESTERN PARTS OF MACKINAC COUNTY IS UNKNOWN.

TONIGHT...ELONGATED SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO NOSE RIGHT
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT THIS EVENING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS THE BEST LIFT ACROSS THE STRAITS AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES MAY BE JUST
ABOUT DONE. BUT WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ONE TO PERHAPS TWO INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL LET
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUE ON FOR NOW...BUT SUSPECT
EVENING CREW WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY A LITTLE
EARLY AS THE SNOW WINDS DOWN.

SOUTH OF THE FRONT/SFC LOW... WEDGE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS
WORKING NORTHWARD. THUS WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS PRETTY MUCH OVER
FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF M-72. FAIRLY DEEP SFC BASED SATURATED
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH SHRINK TOP DOWN
WITH TIME) SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE (DRIZZLE
WHERE TEMPS ARE OR EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE 32F) THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BUT WITH AN EVER SHRINKING SFC BASED SATURATED LAYER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE MAINLY AN EVENING ORDEAL. PLAN
NO HEADLINES TO COVER THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT AND LET
INCOMING EVENING CREW HANDLE IT IN A SHORT FUSED SENSE.

SATURDAY...INITIAL SFC LOW MOVES EAST LEAVING STALLED FRONT
STRETCHED THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION. MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND
DEEPENING SFC LOW ADVANCES THROUGH THE NRN LAKES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A VERY POTENT COLD FRONT/PLUMMETING TEMPS/GUSTY
WINDS/LAKE SNOWS ARRIVING MAINLY IN THE EVENING (SEE BELOW). WILL
HAVE A WINTER STORM WATCH HOISTED FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. BUT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY...MAY NOT SEE MUCH AT ALL OTHER THAN SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT (EASTERN UPPER).
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER AIR WORKS INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH 850 TEMPS REACHING THE 0C TO +2C RANGE. MAYBE SOME
SPRINKLES OR SOME DRIZZLE...OR NOTHING ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN UNTIL COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BLEED BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE IN THE DAY AND WE GET SOME LAKE EFFECT GOING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND
-15C IN N LAKE MICHIGAN BY 06Z. THE ONLY QUESTION ON THE TIMING WILL
BE HOW FAST DOES THE WIND DIRECTION SWING AROUND TO THE NW. THE
ECMWF HAS IT DOING IT IN THE EVENING SO THAT BY 06Z THE NW FLOW HAS
BEEN ESTABLISHED FOR A FEW HOURS. THE GFS IS JUST GETTING THE NW
FLOW GOING BY 05 OR 06Z. SO THIS WILL IMPACT WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL. HEDGED THE AMOUNTS A LITTLE BIT IN THE W FLOW DIRECTION
TO TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT FOR NOW. THEN OVERNIGHT, THE WINDS ARE NW
ON BOTH MODELS SO HAVE MORE NW FLOW IN THE FORECAST, AND ANY OF THE
WEST FLOW BANDS THAT MIGHT GET SMASHED TOGETHER FROM THE NORTHWEST
WINDS.

SUNDAY...DESPITE THE MOISTURE DROPPING A BIT IN THE MORNING, IT
NEVER FALLS BELOW 60% IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER, AND IT GOES BACK UP
OVER 80% BY 00Z. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE
-22C ISOTHERM APPEARS OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN. SO IT IS LOOKING LIKE
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE. THIS WILL MAKE A
FINE POWDER. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW VISIBILITY,
BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE.

INITIAL CALCULATIONS OF THE SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAIR AREA HAVING
MODERATE AMOUNTS. TWO PERIODS OF THIS WOULD PUSH US UP TO IF NOT
OVER THE WARNING AMOUNTS. NOT TO MENTION, WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AND SOMEWHAT INLAND, THAT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SO HAVE ISSUED THE WINTER STORM WATCH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS BACK OFF AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT, BUT
THE DIRECTIONS SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE WNW. THE MOISTURE REMAINS
AROUND 60%. SO WILL EXPECT THAT FOR THE NIGHT WE WILL GET SOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE AMOUNT WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -22C IN E
UPPER AND N LOWER. AGAIN THIS LEADS TO FINE POWDER SNOW, SO WILL
EXPECT SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS THAN WOULD GET FROM SLIGHT WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY...WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE NW OR THE WNW EITHER WAY, THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PILE UP, IN LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OVER NW AND
NC LOWER. IF THE WINDS CAN MAINTAIN CONSISTENT DIRECTION AS THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING, THEN THERE COULD BE A SINGLE BAND THAT COULD
PUT DOWN SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS, AND REACH INTO NE LOWER AS WELL. SO FOR
THE TIME BEING, WILL PUT MINOR TO LIGHT AMOUNTS IN NE LOWER. THESE
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPOSED TO GET COLDER STILL PUSHING -25C.
OBVIOUSLY, THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, BUT AGAIN WITH
THE CLOUD TOPS BEING SO COLD AND ALMOST THE ENTIRE COLUMN SUPPORTING
ICE, WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF FINE
POWDER.

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TUESDAY, MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
THE DIRECTION OF THE WIND. GFS SHOWS WINDS IN THE WNW DIRECTION,
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS NNW WIND FLOW. SO THE SNOW FALL IS INEVITABLE
BASED ON THE MOISTURE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE PROBLEM THEN
BECOMES WHERE THE LARGEST SNOW WILL FALL. LOOKING AT THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE PAGE FROM ST. LOUIS UNIVERSITY, WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERE
COULD BE HEAVY SNOW FALL, BUT SINCE THIS IS BASED ON THE GFS IDEA,
IT ENDS UP 50 MILES AWAY FROM THE ECMWF IDEA. WEDNESDAY, DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SLOWS THE SNOW DOWN. HOWEVER, THEN THE
WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION, AND WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
STILL BETWEEN -15C AND -20C, WILL STILL BE PICKING UP SOME
ENHANCEMENT. THE MODEL MAIN DISAGREEMENT IS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT THIS COULD BE ANOTHER GOOD OUT
OF THE SW. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, THEN IT IS STILL A NW FLOW EVENT
INTO NW LOWER. THURSDAY, THE MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT TRACK AND TIMING
FOR THE LOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO MICHIGAN. THE 00Z
ECMWF PUTS THE LOW THROUGH N MICHIGAN, WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE MAIN
SFC LOW NEAR THE QUAD CITIES. BOTH PUSH THE LOW THROUGH WITH COLD
ENOUGH AIR TO PRODUCE SNOW. SO THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE THERE.
FRIDAY, THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW IN QUEBEC, WITH NW FLOW OVER
MICHIGAN. THE GFS N TO NE FLOW AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERE WILL BE SNOW, BUT AGAIN THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
DETERMINE WHERE IN N LOWER THE SNOW GOES AND HOW MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE CIG/VSBY FORECAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POSSIBLE LOW CIGS/VSBYS WITH
DZ/FZDZ/-SN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MI...THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW CLOUD PRESENTLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT UP TO NEAR PLN
LATE TONIGHT...THEN STALL AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG IT.
FOR NOW...HAVE GONE MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR MBL...BUT WITH A MIX
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. THIS IS (SADLY)
UNLIKELY TO BE EXACTLY CORRECT...AND AM THINKING THAT...IF
ANYTHING...WE ARE LIKELY TOO PESSIMISTIC.

CLARITY COMES TO THE FORECAST BY SAT AFTERNOON...WHEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT ANY POTENTIAL GRUNGE...AND RETURNS US TO A
DEEP FREEZE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE WORST OF
THIS ARRIVES AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
SOUTH OF SLEEPING BEAR POINT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH
WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDING THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. MUCH
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING KICKING A POTENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
STATE. VERY GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH GALES IMPACTING PARTS OF ALL THREE LAKES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR MIZ008-015>023-025>029-031>034.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ008-
     015.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ345-346.
LS...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...NS
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...BA
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 18, 9:30 PM EST, 36 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
930 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
191200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
930 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE AREAS...SOUTH OF SLEEPING BEAR POINT. SEE LATEST NEARSHORE
MARINE FORECAST FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES
ON SATURDAY AND DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH VERY COLD AIR ONCE AGAIN SPILLING INTO THE STATE. AS
A RESULT WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SNOWBELTS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SEE THE ONGOING WATCH FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND REPORTS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. REPORTS MAY BE
MADE ONE OF THREE WAYS:

BY PHONE: 1-800-647-8676 (REPORTS ONLY PLEASE...NO FORECASTS)

BY FACEBOOK: FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.GAYLORD.GOV

BY TWITTER: TWITTER.COM/NWSGAYLORD

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.

ADAM/JSL/JZ

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 18, 7:17 PM EST, 2 hours 49 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
717 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     SNOW             SAULT STE. MARIE        46.48N 84.37W
01/18/2013  M3.0 INCH        CHIPPEWA           MI   OFFICIAL NWS OB

            12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 PM. SNOW DEPTH 11 IN.

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 19, 3:46 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryAPX4 days
Jan 19, 4:15 PM ESTWinter Storm WarningAPXAntrim, Crawford, Kalkaska, Leelanau, Otsego19 hr
Jan 19, 4:15 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryAPXBenzie, Cheboygan, Emmet, Grand Traverse, Manistee, Missaukee and 4 more19 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Michigan, 2013Every gale warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.