Gale Warning 10, NWS Gaylord, MI

218 
WHUS73 KAPX 181953
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
353 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

LHZ345>347-LMZ341-LSZ321-190300-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130319T0300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
353 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ345-346-190400-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0010.130319T0600Z-130319T2100Z/
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
353 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-342-344-190000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-130319T0000Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
353 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ348-349-LSZ322-190300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-130319T0300Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
353 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

393 
WHUS73 KAPX 190121
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
921 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

LHZ345>347-LMZ341-LSZ321-190300-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130319T0300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
921 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ345-346-190930-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0010.130319T0600Z-130319T2100Z/
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
921 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ348-349-LSZ322-190300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-130319T0300Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
921 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

425 
WHUS73 KAPX 190342
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1142 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

LMZ345-346-191800-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0010.130319T0600Z-130319T2100Z/
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1142 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-347>349-LMZ323-341-342-344-LSZ321-191800-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.130319T0342Z-130320T1200Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
1142 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

412 
WHUS73 KAPX 191408
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1008 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

LMZ345-346-192100-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-130319T2100Z/
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1008 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-347>349-LMZ323-341-342-344-LSZ321-192215-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-130320T1200Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
1008 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

199 
WHUS73 KAPX 192021
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
421 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

LMZ345-346-200000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-130320T0000Z/
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
421 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-347>349-LMZ323-341-342-344-LSZ321-200430-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-130320T1200Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
421 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

611 
WHUS73 KAPX 192328
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
728 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

LMZ345-346-200730-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-130320T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-130321T0000Z/
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
728 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. THE GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ346-LSZ322-200730-
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-130321T0000Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
728 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-347>349-LMZ323-341-342-344-LSZ321-200730-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-130321T0000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
728 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1034 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LATE SEASON WINTER WEATHER WILL IMPACT
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF BOTH
SYSTEM AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WORK THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST ROUND
OF SNOW WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS INTO
ONTARIO...ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...SETTING OFF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. SNOW WILL FINALLY END TOWARD FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES...THOUGH COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

TWO-FOLD COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTH. MAIN SHORT WAVE CENTER ADVANCING THROUGH IOWA DRIVING
BATCH OF PRECIP INTO WISCONSIN/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECOND PIECE
OF ENERGY AND GULF MOISTURE FEED ADVANCING THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...DRIVING
ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER PRECIP (AND CONVECTION) THROUGH THAT
AREA. THINNING BAND OF PRECIP STRETCHES ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND CONNECTS THE TWO.

THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE/ASSOCIATED FORCING
AND PRECIP WILL SWING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAIN GULF
MOISTURE FEED WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE S/E WITH THE SECONDARY
LOW...WHICH WILL THROTTLE OUR QPF/SNOWFALL TOTALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY 3 INCHES OR LESS WITH THE INITIAL PRECIP.
OVERNIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL ADD ANOTHER INCH OR SO BY MORNING.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...PERHAPS A LITTLE
FAST WITH THE TIMING. ONE CHANGE I DID MAKE WAS TO REMOVE MIXED
PRECIP FROM OUR SE COUNTIES (JUST SNOW). FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS-EVAP COOLING POTENTIAL JUST
DOESNT SUPPORT LIQUID.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPDATES EARLY THIS MORNING. MADE SOME SKY
COVERAGE CHANGES...MAINLY TO MAKE FOR CLEAR SKIES TO START OUT THE
DAY FOR THE INTERIOR CWA. HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN OVER WESTERN
CHIP/MACK AND ALSO THE COUNTIES NEARER SAGINAW BAY. AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN THIS UNTIL DEEPER MOISTURE SLAMS IN LATER
TODAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOWS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF LATE SEASON WINTER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND REALLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK IN GENERAL. OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS THE SYNOPTIC PORTION OF AN OTHERWISE SNOWY 5-DAY
FORECAST...WITH THE BIGGEST ISSUES BEING TIMING/AMOUNTS OF SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE THROWN IN
JUST FOR FUN. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
MAIN PLAYER IN OUR FORECAST...IN THE FORM OF AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
LEE CYCLONE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. NOT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF PRECIP ONGOING WITH THIS FEATURE
AT THE MOMENT...WITH MUCH OF THE ACTION CONFINED ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY/MID SOUTH WHERE WHERE DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT IS INTERACTING WITH MUCH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...CLOSER TO
HOME...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...COURTESY OF A
VERY DRY AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE...AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS
BUILDING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE PLAINS UPPER WAVE. TEMPS HAVE STEADIED
OUT THE PAST FEW HOURS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW AS LOW
LEVEL RIDGING IS SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE TODAY CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY QUIET AS LOW
LEVEL RIDGING HANGS TOUGH WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
RESIDE OVERHEAD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL THICKENING OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WITH TIME AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT KICKS INTO GEAR. WAS A
LITTLE WORRIED EARLIER ABOUT LAKE HURON STRATUS RE-DEVELOPING...
BUT DRY AIR HAS HELD THAT IN CHECK THUS FAR. THINGS WILL CHANGE
QUICKLY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES...WITH AN
AXIS OF MODEST MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASCENT (285-305K SURFACES)
RAMPING UP FROM ROUGHLY 17Z ONWARD. MOISTURE IS NOTHING TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE (MIXING RATIOS UP AROUND 3G/KG...PWATS UP AROUND A HALF
INCH)...BUT MODEST PERIOD OF FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
TROUBLE SATURATING THE COLUMN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...WILL
CONTINUE RAMP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALL SPOTS...REACHING EASTERN UPPER
MAINLY AFTER 21-22Z. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SNOW...AS ANY
INITIAL WARM NOSE SHOULD BE ERASED BY WET-BULBING OF THE ENTIRE
COLUMN BACK BELOW 0C...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
WHERE SOME LAKE HURON INFLUENCE MAY TRY TO THROW IN A FEW SURPRISES.
SNOW AMOUNTS DON'T LOOK TO BE ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL GIVEN RATHER
QUICK PERIOD OF FORCING (4-6 HOURS AT THE MAX FOR ANY ONE
LOCATION)...WITH A GENERAL 2-3 INCHES EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PUSHING 4 OR 5 INCHES ACROSS THE U.P. WHERE
SNOW SHIELD WILL LINGER THE LONGEST...AND WHERE SOME LAKE HELP MAY
COME INTO PLAY ON SOUTHEAST FLOW. HEADLINES DIFFICULT...BUT WILL
ATTEMPT TO WRAP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF LAKE SNOW (DISCUSSED
BELOW) WITH TODAY'S EVENT FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOCUSED ON
NORTHWEST LOWER/EASTERN UPPER.

SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHARP DRY SLOT AND SUBSEQUENT LOSS OF
BOTH MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION FORCING. THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR
ROUGHLY 00-03Z SOUTHERN COUNTIES...REACHING THE STRAITS BY 06Z. IT
IS IN THIS TIME FRAME WHERE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRIPS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH
SATURATION MAINLY BELOW 800MB (THERMAL REGIME RIGHT AROUND THE -9C
ISOTHERM). HOWEVER...DON'T BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A HUGE DEAL AS IT
WILL BE FALLING ON TOP OF EXISTING SNOWFALL...AND IT LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE AS SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERS ACROSS THE U.P. QUICK LULL IN PRECIP SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER AS COLDER AIR COMES POURING BACK IN AFTER
09Z...THOUGH STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION IS STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES. GRADUAL RAMP-UP IN DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR...SETTING OF RENEWED LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
THROUGH 12Z SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED (AN INCH OR LESS) AS THERMAL
PROFILES FAVOR RATHER LOW RATIOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

A LONG STRETCH OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINS ON TRACK FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...REMINDING US THAT WINTER CAN TRULY HANG ON IN THE GREAT
WHITE NORTH. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE OBVIOUS...SNOWFALL TOTALS
AND HEADLINE MANAGEMENT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TYPICAL
SNOWBELTS OF NRN MICHIGAN. UPPER LOW WILL BE CLOSING OFF TUESDAY
AND REMAINING AROUND THE NRN GREAT LAKES OVER THIS TIME FRAME. A
SERIES OF SFC TROUGHS/SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER POCKETS OF MOISTURE
WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH...ENHANCING SNOWFALLS. FLOW IS RATHER
WNW/NW THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME...WITH NICE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW/LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOKING
MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE...SEEMINGLY NON-EXISTENT AT TIMES. THE
LATTER ALONE...HAS PROMPTED INCREASED SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND LAPSE RATES LEADING TO LIKELY SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THOSE AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS IN THE AFTERNOON
WHILE ALSO DISRUPTING ANY BANDING FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE
SNOWBELTS (NOT SO MUCH TUESDAY WHERE SHEAR IS HIGHER). LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING APPEARS TO LEAD TO BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...PRIMARILY CHIPPEWA
COUNTY...BUT MANY OF THE DETAILS/MESOSCALE FACTORS WILL HAVE TO BE
DEALT WITH ON A SHORT TERM BASIS. CAN EASILY SEE WARNING LEVEL
CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS OVER THIS TIME FRAME...BUT BECAUSE OF SOME
AMBIGUITY ON THESE DETAILS/TIMING...HEFTY INTER AND INTRA-OFFICE
COORDINATION HAS LED TO A RATHER LONG WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE MOST IMPACTED LOCALES...WITH A SHORTER ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT TARGET ZONES. BOTH OF WHICH
INCLUDE THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL TO BE RECEIVED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. ALSO...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH...FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUES.
ALL-IN- ALL...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.
THOUGHTS ON SNOWFALL TOTALS...BELIEVE THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER/DISCUSSION...THAT 1-3" IS MOST LIKELY CONSERVATIVE.
HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE SNOWFALL IN CERTAIN PERIODS WHERE THERE
WERE AGREEMENTS ON SOME OF THE DETAILS/MESOSCALE INFLUENCES.
OTHERWISE...IT STILL FEELS A BIT TOO SOON TO TRY AND NAIL ANYTHING
SPECIFIC DOWN. JUST BE READY FOR IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL FOR SOME
AREAS...EXCEEDING A FOOT BY THURSDAY'S END. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE
FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER...AS WELL AS
CHARLEVOIX...OTSEGO...ANTRIM...CRAWFORD..KALKASKA...LEELANAU AND
GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTIES OF NORTHERN LOWER. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FLOW TURNS MORE NNW/N THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION WARMING WRAPPING AROUND NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW THAT GRADUALLY RELEASES TO THE NE
CONUS. WE REMAIN IN BROAD TROUGHING WITH WEAK WAVES FLOATING
AROUND THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NO REAL GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW. IT'S A
RATHER DINGY LOOKING AIR MASS WITH SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND
POSSIBLY SOME OVERNIGHT LAKE STRATUS/FLURRIES?? WILL KEEP FORECAST
PRECIP FREE FOR NOW...WITH STRONGER MARCH SUN BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

INCREASED SE FLOW COMING IN OFF LAKE HURON HAS BROUGHT SOME BKN
MVFR CIGS AT APN. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS CLOUD COULD
REMAIN OVER APN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL DEEPER MOISTURE
AND LIGHT SNOWS SPREAD IN WITH PREVAILING IFR VSBYS/CIGS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ANYTHING OUT OF CONTROL...BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BEHIND THE SNOW. GUSTS OUT OF
THE SE TODAY REACHING AROUND 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ALL THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE WATERS...BUT CHANNELING OF
EASTERLY FLOW WILL REQUIRE GALE WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND
THE STRAITS...AS WELL AS WHITEFISH BAY. WINDS WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
FOR A TIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS THROUGH
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THAT
LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES
BACK ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RE-DEVELOP FOR ALL WATERS INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE GUSTS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN...PERHAPS IMPACTING THE WATERS CLOSER TO MANISTEE.
COLD CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL RIGHT ON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ008-019>022-026>028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ015>017-025-031-032.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ345-346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

UPDATE...BA
SYNOPSIS...DL
SHORT TERM...DL
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD
MARINE...DL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
449 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
191230-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
449 AM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN AFTER NOON TODAY.
MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...HEAVIEST INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN. ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON...AS WELL INTO WHITEFISH BAY FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BE DUE TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES. SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME. PLEASE VIEW THE
LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT ANY TIME. REPORTS MAY BE MADE ONE OF THREE
WAYS:

BY PHONE: 1-800-647-8676 (REPORTS ONLY PLEASE...NO FORECASTS)

BY FACEBOOK: FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.GAYLORD.GOV

BY TWITTER: TWITTER.COM/NWSGAYLORD

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.

LAWRENCE/SMD