Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
618 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO AFFECT MAINLY THE GUYMON
AND DALHART TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE TO MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THEN
MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 08Z TO 10Z FRIDAY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY
AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING IN THE W OK PANHANDLE AT THIS HOUR. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD...THIS IS NOT THE SAME SET UP AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 70S...AND ONLY THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE HAS REACHED
90 TODAY...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...AND A SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. THIS WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY...AND
THUS SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST INITIALLY...THOUGH SOME HAIL TO GOLF
BALL SIZE...AND STRONG WINDS TO 60 MPH...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BY EARLY TO MID EVENING...AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HELP THE CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE
INTO AN MCS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS. THROUGH OUT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREAT. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

TOMORROW...STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A FAST ZONAL FLOW.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM...EXPECT MUCH
MORE LIMITED COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION. AS SUCH...MAY SEE SOME STORM FREE PERIODS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND THERE
ARE SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS EXACT TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...AND
POSSIBLY A COLD FRONT...IS UNCERTAIN AT BEST.

JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

JOHNSON

HYDROLOGY...
WHILE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE FOR
FLASH FLOODING SET UP...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL...MODERATE STORM
MOTIONS...AND A PATTERN THAT DOESN/T MATCH ANY CONCEPTUAL
MODELS...THE SOIL CONDITIONS IN THE OK AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES
ESPECIALLY MEAN THAT EVEN MODERATE RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
TODAY...TOMORROW...AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

08/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
323 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-091145-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
323 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...STRONG WINDS TO
70 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...STRONG WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. THE BIGGEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JOHNSON

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
506 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

TXZ018-019-082230-
ARMSTRONG TX-DONLEY TX-
506 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ARMSTRONG AND WESTERN
DONLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 504 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF GOODNIGHT...OR 18 MILES WEST OF
CLARENDON...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GOODNIGHT...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3515 10123 3508 10089 3479 10109 3486 10133
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 201DEG 15KT 3489 10119

KB

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