Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY TO
NEAR CANADIAN. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WILL MOST LIKELY WANE AFTER SUNSET. A MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PULL UP STATIONARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY PEAK HEATING...SO WILL KEEP
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. BUT...IF THIS
FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH...THEN WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER BUMPING
POPS UP ACROSS THE SOUTH. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEE THE LATEST SWODY2
FOR MORE DETAILS. FLOODING MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST WHERE IT HAS BEEN WET LATELY.

NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME LOOK GOOD FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
REMOVE POPS FROM ANY GIVEN AREA. THE FRONT MAY TAKE SOME MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WITH IT TO OUR SOUTH...SO THIS COULD BE A DRIER DAY.

THE INSTABILITY SHOULD RECOVER SOME ON SATURDAY AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST FROM THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE PANHANDLES.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NOW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEK GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES AND THE FACT THAT LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                72  97  68  91  65 /  20  30  40  20  20
BEAVER OK                  74  91  69  88  68 /  40  40  60  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              65  89  65  83  62 /  40  40  50  30  30
BORGER TX                  73 100  69  91  66 /  30  30  40  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              70 101  70  93  68 /  20  30  40  20  30
CANYON TX                  72  98  68  93  66 /  20  20  30  20  20
CLARENDON TX               75  99  70  94  69 /  20  20  40  20  20
DALHART TX                 66  95  65  88  64 /  40  30  40  30  30
GUYMON OK                  72  94  67  87  66 /  40  40  50  30  30
HEREFORD TX                69  98  68  92  65 /  20  20  30  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                74  95  69  90  69 /  30  30  50  20  30
PAMPA TX                   73  97  68  89  64 /  20  30  40  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                76  99  70  95  71 /  20  20  40  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              76 102  71  99  72 /  20  20  40  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

10/15

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