Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
306 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...
THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

THROUGH TONIGHT...COULD SEE AN INITIAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING DEVELOPING ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH SOME AREAS
STILL 5 F DEGREES BELOW THE CONVECTIVE TEMP...AND LIMITED CONFIDENCE
OF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLES...AM NOT CERTAIN
HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE WILL BE FOR THIS ROUND. STILL A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS TO COME WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. MANY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS MCS COULD
PRIMARILY STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION IN DEEPER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...WAS HESITANT TO LOWER POPS IN THE AREA GIVEN A
STILL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE EVEN LATE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...ONE DIFFERENCE TOMORROW FROM THE LAST
FEW DAYS IS THAT IT MAY TAKE LONGER FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
BEGIN IN A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH CONSIDERABLY HIGHER CIN
VALUES THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE
REGION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD SEE ONE MORE ROUND OF CONVECTION
WITH THE LAST IN THIS SERIES OF TROUGHS THAT SLIDES OVER THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...BY THIS POINT THE RIDGE MAY BE BUILDING ENOUGH THAT THE
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY INHIBIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. FOR
NOW...STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY...BUT CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE REGION
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. UNDER THIS PATTERN...COULD SEE OFF AND ON RAIN
CHANCES WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST...AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

JOHNSON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINS AND GREEN UP...COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ABOVE 20 PERCENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

JOHNSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  88  64  84  66 /  30  20  30  30  40
BEAVER OK                  68  89  66  87  67 /  60  10  30  30  40
BOISE CITY OK              63  88  62  83  63 /  40  20  40  30  40
BORGER TX                  67  91  69  86  70 /  40  20  30  30  40
BOYS RANCH TX              66  91  64  87  67 /  30  20  40  30  40
CANYON TX                  65  88  64  84  66 /  30  20  30  30  40
CLARENDON TX               68  89  66  85  69 /  40  20  30  30  40
DALHART TX                 62  89  62  84  64 /  30  20  40  30  40
GUYMON OK                  65  89  65  86  66 /  50   5  30  30  40
HEREFORD TX                65  89  63  85  63 /  30  20  40  30  40
LIPSCOMB TX                69  88  66  84  70 /  60  10  30  30  40
PAMPA TX                   65  89  64  82  66 /  50  20  30  30  40
SHAMROCK TX                69  90  67  84  69 /  50  20  30  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              71  92  69  86  69 /  40  20  30  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

14/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
314 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-170815-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
314 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR
SIZE...STRONG WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
407 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

OKZ003-162145-
BEAVER OK-
407 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BEAVER COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

AT 402 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF FLORIS...OR 8 MILES WEST OF
BEAVER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BEAVER...             MOCANE...             FORGAN...
  FLORIS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS... AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3667 10024 3662 10063 3684 10083 3701 10056
      3701 10036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 254DEG 15KT 3679 10063

JACKSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
429 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

TXZ012-013-162215-
CARSON TX-POTTER TX-
429 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CARSON AND
NORTHEASTERN POTTER COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 425 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE MEREDITH...OR 18 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BORGER...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN POTTER AND NORTHWESTERN CARSON
  COUNTIES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS... AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3545 10177 3562 10177 3562 10150 3540 10156
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 290DEG 4KT 3554 10167

JACKSON