Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE
KGUY TERMINALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE TERMINAL BY 0030Z. BRIEF MVFR VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS ALONG WITH VARIABLE THUNDERSTORM WINDS. BEYOND 0030Z...NOT
EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL TSRA TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST BY 08Z AT KGUY/KDHT AND BY 14Z AT KAMA. PRIOR TO THIS
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS LATER
TONIGHT. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINALS
TUESDAY FOCUSING ANY CONVECTION OFF TO THE EAST. POSSIBLE FOR TSRA TO
DEVELOP NEAR KGUY BETWEEN 20-00Z BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
AFTERNOON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING CLUSTER OF HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING IN SOUTHWESTERN KS...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A
SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN CO. THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE
WESTERN OK PANHANDLE BUT CURVES BACK INTO EASTERN NM. STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL LEAD TO AN EXPANSION
IN STORM COVERAGE. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
THE STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN KS CONGEALING INTO A MCS THAT WILL MARCH
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN OK LATER THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
STORMS INITIATING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE AIDED LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BY A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JET OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK. DESPITE THE OUTPUT BY
THE HIGH-RES MODELS...MOST NWP GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS STORM COVERAGE
A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST SO HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE BY
06Z DUE TO INCREASING CINH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
IN THE WESTERN ZONES TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY.
THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
EAST BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
/ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES/
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DRYLINE AFTER 18Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WED WHILE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES.
ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL BE DISPLACED FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE PROVIDED BY
THE UPPER LOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...UPSLOPE SFC FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO
THE PASSAGE OF ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE
PLAINS SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LOW. DIURNAL HEATING CAN ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO STORM INITIATION...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 70 IN THE NORTHWEST OK PANHANDLE TO
AROUND 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.

THE AREA WILL RESIDE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE IDEA
THAT ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM CAN MAKE
IT INTO THE PANHANDLES. AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS CAN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD END SUNDAY AS THE AREA GETS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. TEMPS WILL BE PLEASANT BEYOND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE DRYLINE
WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES TUESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER 20 FOOT WINDS
UNDER 15 MPH WILL PRECLUDE ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY RESULTING
IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WHILE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE BEYOND TUESDAY.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
340 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-041100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
340 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL 11 PM CDT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A GUYMON TO CLARENDON LINE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES UNTIL 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ONCE AGAIN
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST ON A
DAILY BASIS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED ON ONE OR MORE OF THESE DAYS.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

CLK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 PM CDT MON JUN 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             GUYMON                  36.69N 101.48W
06/03/2013  M0.88 INCH       TEXAS              OK   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300551

FENNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 PM CDT MON JUN 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             GUYMON                  36.69N 101.48W
06/03/2013  M1.00 INCH       TEXAS              OK   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300552

FENNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
717 PM CDT MON JUN 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HAIL             1 N GUYMON              36.70N 101.48W
06/03/2013  E0.88 INCH       TEXAS              OK   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA NSSL

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300553

SPENCER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
726 PM CDT MON JUN 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W HOOKER              36.86N 101.23W
06/03/2013  M58 MPH          TEXAS              OK   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300554

EA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
734 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

OKZ002-040100-
TEXAS OK-
734 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TEXAS COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

AT 730 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF ADAMS...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LIBERAL...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BAKER...              ADAMS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3695 10095 3692 10094 3674 10095 3673 10118
      3691 10120
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 262DEG 10KT 3681 10109

SCHNEIDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
806 PM CDT MON JUN 03 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     HAIL             4 NNE BRYANS CORNER     36.67N 100.79W
06/03/2013  E1.00 INCH       BEAVER             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS QUARTER SIZED AND BIGGER HAIL... BUT NO EXACT
            SIZE AVAILABLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300555

SPENCER