Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF
FORECAST AREA WILL POSE A RISK TO KGUY AND KDHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.  NORTH AND NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH KAMA AROUND 05Z MONDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z MONDAY...AND TO
THEN PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY.  AT KAMA...IFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 10Z MONDAY...AND TO THEN DISIPATE AROUND
NOON.  LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AFTER 21Z MONDAY AT ALL TERMINALS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK REMAIN THE
MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST.

THE GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT/OPEN UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGING FROM EAST TX INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO
DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAS STARTING
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG IT. OTHER CONVECTION WAS
LIGHTING UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND CO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. OTHER CONVECTION WILL TRY TO MOVE IN OUT OF NM ABOARD THE
NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW...WITH THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS. COULD SEE
A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNSET WHERE MLCAPES ARE IN THE 800-1200 J/KG RANGE
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LOW WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINING THE MAIN CONCERN
AS PWATS REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTH...WITH ITS ACTUAL MOVEMENT
ULTIMATELY HINGING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG IT.

PRETTY GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY
SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS IT TRIES TO LIFT BACK NORTH...AND SOME WEAK
UPPER FORCING PRESENT AS WELL ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE MAY SEE SOME
ENHANCED MOISTURE MAKE IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK
FROM THE CURRENT TROPICAL ACTIVITY /INGRID AND MANUEL/ BUT THE
MOISTURE INFLUX THIS FAR NORTH APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
THAT BEING SAID...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT /WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH PWATS REMAINING IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE/
THROUGH TUESDAY...SUPPORTING CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. BY TUESDAY THE FOCUS STARTS TO SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES IN TANDEM WITH THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME.

START TO SEE SOME DRYING AND SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT OF THIS PLUME BY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. RAIN CHANCES WITH
THE FRONT LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AND WE/LL SEE SOME COOLING FOR FRIDAY
AS WELL. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                62  81  62  84  62 /  40  40  30  30  10
BEAVER OK                  63  81  64  88  66 /  60  40  30  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              57  77  59  86  61 /  60  40  20  10   5
BORGER TX                  61  83  65  87  68 /  50  40  30  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              61  82  63  86  63 /  40  40  30  20  10
CANYON TX                  62  83  61  83  59 /  40  40  30  30  10
CLARENDON TX               62  83  65  86  65 /  40  40  30  30  20
DALHART TX                 57  80  58  86  59 /  50  40  20  10  10
GUYMON OK                  60  78  62  88  65 /  60  40  20  10  10
HEREFORD TX                62  82  59  83  59 /  40  40  30  30  10
LIPSCOMB TX                65  81  64  88  68 /  50  40  30  30  10
PAMPA TX                   59  80  63  84  64 /  40  40  30  30  10
SHAMROCK TX                64  84  64  88  66 /  40  40  30  30  20
WELLINGTON TX              65  87  66  88  67 /  40  40  30  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

03/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
320 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-161100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
320 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR
FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
425 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

OKZ001-TXZ001-152230-
CIMARRON OK-DALLAM TX-
425 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DALLAM AND
SOUTHWESTERN CIMARRON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 422 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
A THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 10 MILES WEST OF FELT...OR 14
MILES EAST OF CLAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FELT...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3651 10301 3664 10301 3679 10261 3641 10260
      3640 10303 3650 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 265DEG 13KT 3652 10293

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
501 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

OKZ001-TXZ001-152300-
CIMARRON OK-DALLAM TX-
501 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DALLAM AND
SOUTHEASTERN CIMARRON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 455 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4
MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRIGGS TO 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF WARE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GRIGGS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3650 10203 3650 10216 3635 10217 3624 10257
      3651 10260 3669 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 324DEG 7KT 3655 10208 3630 10254

JC

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