Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR KAMA...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING JUST AFTER SUNRISE/11Z THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. DECIDED NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF VCTS OR -RA FOR KAMA AS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
REMAIN EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BUT OVER KAMA.

FOR KGUY AND KDHT...VCTS AND EVEN SOME -RA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
03Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
AS HIGH...BUT DID INCLUDE MVFR SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 12-15Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KNS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013/

NOT TOO MANY CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST.  HAVE INCREASED
POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND HIGHER INSTABILITY REMAIN IN PLACE.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORECAST FOR ALL OF FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...AS SECONDARY COOL SURGE ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
IT DROPS SOUTHWARD.  MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES.  HAVE
EXTENDED LOW POPS PAST MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 80
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ALL SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS FOR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE SLIGHTLY
RICHER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR RESIDUAL BOUNDARY.

FRIDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE DRY AS WEAK FLOW EXPECTED AT ALL
LEVELS.  HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM SATURDAY...AS MID-LEVEL ANTICYLONIC
FLOW SETS UP AND STRENGTHENS.  PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AS LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

REMAINING PERIODS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW THEREAFTER.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING WEAK 500 MB LOW OR TROF ON
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES.  SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  CONTINUED VERY WARM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-101115-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
330 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH 10 PM
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A BEAVER TO CLAUDE LINE. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING
PONG BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

COCKRELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
448 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

TXZ018-019-092230-
ARMSTRONG TX-DONLEY TX-
448 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARMSTRONG AND
SOUTHERN DONLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 443 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLARENDON...MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLARENDON...          LELIA LAKE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3497 10067 3475 10067 3477 10120 3498 10106
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 255DEG 9KT 3481 10103

ANDRADE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
533 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

TXZ019-092315-
DONLEY TX-
533 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DONLEY COUNTY UNTIL 615
PM CDT...

AT 528 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF CLARENDON...MOVING EAST AND
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CLARENDON...          LELIA LAKE...         HOWARDWICK...
  GREENBELT LAKE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY

LAT...LON 3517 10107 3516 10074 3476 10073 3475 10107
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 180DEG 13KT 3494 10098

ANDRADE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
643 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

TXZ009-100030-
ROBERTS TX-
643 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROBERTS COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM
CDT...

AT 639 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF CODMAN...OR 20 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MIAMI...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MIAMI...              CODMAN...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3604 10106 3602 10063 3565 10060 3562 10107
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 280DEG 9KT 3586 10092

ANDRADE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
719 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

TXZ009-014-100100-
GRAY TX-ROBERTS TX-
719 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROBERTS AND GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL
800 PM CDT...

AT 716 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 3 MILES EAST OF CODMAN...OR 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MIAMI...AND ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST SOUTH OF
LEFORS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PAMPA...              MIAMI...              MCLEAN...
  LEFORS...             LAKE MCCLELLAN...     CODMAN...
  ALANREED...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 133 AND 145.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3600 10057 3521 10056 3522 10098 3604 10103
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 280DEG 9KT 3563 10069

ANDRADE