Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
702 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE THOUGH SCT COVERAGE OF STORMS...STILL UNCERTAIN
IF STORMS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS. KAMA IS UNDER THE
BIGGEST RISK AS A LARGE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS JUST
EAST OF THE AIRPORT IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH THE HIGHEST
RISK IS THROUGH 12Z. CAN EXPECT STRONG AND VRB WINDS...MVFR CEILINGS
AND IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO HEAVY RA UNDER ANY STORMS.

JOHNSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013/

SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER WAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WHILE THIS WAVE LED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO POP UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON...THIS ACTIVITY WAS WANING GIVEN
THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND IN
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ALONG A CONVERGENCE AXIS. DESPITE THE THICK
STRATOCU DECK OVER THE AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PANHANDLES HAS
DESTABILIZED WITH SBCAPES AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS WHERE CLOUD COVER WAS NOT AS THICK. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY FOR STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SEVERE STORM IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THAT IS ON TRACK TO
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. STILL WITH PWATS AT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING ISSUES WILL STILL BE A
CONCERN IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR 30-40 KTS. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH THE PANHANDLES RESIDING IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE WARMER TEMPS COMBINED WILL LEAD TO
A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE DEGREE OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT AS A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS KANSAS
INTO OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE DAY. DID LOWER POPS DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...AS THIS AREA WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THIS
UPPER WAVE. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA LATE
AT NIGHT. THIS MCS MAY ALSO CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE
HIGHER POPS WERE PAINTED.

LONG TERM...
MADE SEVERAL SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HAVE COME IN DRIER DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE FURTHER TO THE EAST...CAUSING
THE STEERING FLOW TO TRANSITION MORE OUT OF THE NORTH THAN THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE PANHANDLES AND WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE REMOVED
POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. HAVE HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SUNDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES NEAR THE REGION
ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES LOOK SLIM WITH THE STEERING FLOW VEERING MORE
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE PANHANDLES IN A DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT...PRECLUDING ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION 20 FOOT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER 20 MPH. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL. A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS
IS SLATED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

09/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-151100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
300 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS CAN BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WHERE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND STRONG
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. IN ADDITION HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARDS. IN ADDITION HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD BE READY FOR LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

CLK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
754 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

TXZ017-018-150145-
ARMSTRONG TX-RANDALL TX-
754 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ARMSTRONG AND
SOUTHEASTERN RANDALL COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 749 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PALO DURO CANYON...OR 11
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CANYON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CEMETERY ROAD AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN RANDALL COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 95 AND 102.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS... AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3489 10191 3500 10173 3475 10148 3474 10180
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 310DEG 6KT 3488 10176

SIMPSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
805 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

TXZ012-017-150145-
POTTER TX-RANDALL TX-
805 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN RANDALL AND CENTRAL
POTTER COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 802 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MASTERSON...OR 19 MILES NORTH OF AMARILLO...MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  AMARILLO...           BUSHLAND...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 118 AND 123.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 56 AND 78.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS... AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3512 10171 3514 10213 3559 10194 3556 10171
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 355DEG 27KT 3546 10181

SIMPSON