Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
342 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER WAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WHILE THIS WAVE LED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO POP UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON...THIS ACTIVITY WAS WANING GIVEN
THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND IN
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ALONG A CONVERGENCE AXIS. DESPITE THE THICK
STRATOCU DECK OVER THE AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PANHANDLES HAS
DESTABILIZED WITH SBCAPES AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS WHERE CLOUD COVER WAS NOT AS THICK. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY FOR STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SEVERE STORM IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THAT IS ON TRACK TO
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. STILL WITH PWATS AT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING ISSUES WILL STILL BE A
CONCERN IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR 30-40 KTS. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH THE PANHANDLES RESIDING IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE WARMER TEMPS COMBINED WILL LEAD TO
A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE DEGREE OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT AS A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS KANSAS
INTO OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE DAY. DID LOWER POPS DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...AS THIS AREA WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THIS
UPPER WAVE. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA LATE
AT NIGHT. THIS MCS MAY ALSO CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE
HIGHER POPS WERE PAINTED.

.LONG TERM...
MADE SEVERAL SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HAVE COME IN DRIER DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE FURTHER TO THE EAST...CAUSING
THE STEERING FLOW TO TRANSITION MORE OUT OF THE NORTH THAN THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE PANHANDLES AND WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE REMOVED
POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. HAVE HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SUNDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES NEAR THE REGION
ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES LOOK SLIM WITH THE STEERING FLOW VEERING MORE
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE PANHANDLES IN A DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT...PRECLUDING ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION 20 FOOT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER 20 MPH. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL. A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS
IS SLATED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  89  64  86  62 /  40  20  30  20  10
BEAVER OK                  64  92  65  87  63 /  30  40  40  30   5
BOISE CITY OK              61  92  60  87  60 /  40  30  40  20  10
BORGER TX                  66  93  68  89  66 /  40  20  40  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              66  93  64  91  63 /  40  20  30  20  10
CANYON TX                  63  88  64  88  61 /  40  20  30  20  10
CLARENDON TX               65  90  67  88  63 /  40  20  30  20  10
DALHART TX                 61  92  60  87  61 /  40  30  30  20  10
GUYMON OK                  63  93  63  87  62 /  30  40  40  20   5
HEREFORD TX                62  86  64  88  60 /  40  30  30  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                63  90  66  85  62 /  30  30  40  30   5
PAMPA TX                   63  89  65  85  62 /  30  20  40  30  10
SHAMROCK TX                65  90  65  87  63 /  30  20  30  30  10
WELLINGTON TX              67  92  68  90  64 /  30  20  30  30  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

11/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-151100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
300 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS CAN BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WHERE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND STRONG
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. IN ADDITION HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARDS. IN ADDITION HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD BE READY FOR LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

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