Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
307 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...
DRY LINE HAS STALLED IN THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES...GENERALLY ALONG
A LINE FROM BEAVER...TO CANADIAN TO JUST EAST OF CLARENDON. WHILE
THIS WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT TO BE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR TODAY...AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
HAS DEVELOPED. THOUGH CAPE VALUES ARE MODEST IN THE POST FRONTAL
REGION...GENERALLY 500 TO 1000 J/KG ML CAPE...BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
NEAR OR GREATER THAN 30 KTS. WHILE NOT INCREDIBLY IMPRESSIVE...THESE
SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO FOR SOME SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS ESPECIALLY WITH THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DRYLINE...STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CAPE VALUES IN
THIS REGION ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER...ABOVE 1000 J/KG...SHEAR IS
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER...20 TO 25 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH LCLS AT OR
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL SHOULD KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT MINIMAL OVER THE
PANHANDLES.

STORMS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE SHOULD NOT STAY IN THE PANHANDLES VERY
LONG. WHILE STORMS IN THE UPSLOPE/POST-FRONTAL REGIME COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...THOUGH EXPECT THE STORMS TO BECOME
ELEVATED VERY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THUS THE SEVERE THREAT COULD
SHIFT TO A HAIL THREAT ONLY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...

MUDDLED PATTERN CONTINUES AS LONG AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WITH THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...THE LOW
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND FILLING AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. EVEN WITH THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW NIGHT.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...DESPITE THE TROUGH BEING OVER THE
REGION AND REASONABLE MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE REGION...THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON STORM CHANCES FOR TOMORROW.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY STARTS TO DIG
SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE REGION...THOUGH HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR
IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE. BY THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION...THE REGION WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR
MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS...THIS DOESN'T HAPPEN UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. REGARDLESS OF WHEN THIS OCCURS...ONCE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER US...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EFFECTIVELY END FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. AFTER TONIGHT HOWEVER...COOLER WEATHER AND INCREASING
MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                50  72  49  70  49 /  10  20  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  54  73  48  71  48 /  40  20  30  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              48  67  45  69  47 /  30  30  30  20  10
BORGER TX                  52  74  51  72  52 /  20  20  20  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              49  74  52  72  46 /  10  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  49  74  51  71  45 /  10  20  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               54  76  53  71  52 /  10  20  20  10  10
DALHART TX                 46  69  46  68  45 /  20  30  30  20  10
GUYMON OK                  50  71  48  72  49 /  30  30  30  10   5
HEREFORD TX                47  73  51  69  46 /   5  20  20  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                55  74  50  71  48 /  40  20  30  10   5
PAMPA TX                   51  71  49  70  50 /  20  20  20  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                55  77  53  72  51 /  20  20  30  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              56  80  54  74  55 /  20  20  30  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

03/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
233 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-091100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
233 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO PING PONG BALL SIZED
AND STRONG WINDS TO 60 MPH.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLES THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHORT LIVED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
403 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             BLACK MESA PARK         36.85N 102.88W
05/08/2013  E0.88 INCH       CIMARRON           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300422

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
417 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

TXZ019-020-082145-
COLLINGSWORTH TX-DONLEY TX-
417 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COLLINGSWORTH AND EASTERN DONLEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 413 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF QUAIL...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF
MEMPHIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  QUAIL...              DOZIER...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3517 10047 3494 10013 3481 10054 3498 10059
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 226DEG 18KT 3499 10052

JC

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