Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
702 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
AMPLE MOISTURE AROUND. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL COME THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY AT KGUY AND KDHT. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AT KDHT AND KGUY. STRONG ERRATIC
WINDS...HAIL...AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOPING IN MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE 10Z-17Z TIMEFRAME.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013/

UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. HEAVY RAIN...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING...WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY...SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
ALL HELP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO
CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY HELP CONVECTION TO FIRE
AGAIN THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND
COMBINES WITH THE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND SURFACE
BOUNDARIES.

THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TO PULL MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THIS WAY. OTHERWISE...ANY
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY FIRE CONVECTION AS
WELL.

SUNDAY MAY BE A DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION AS THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS WEST OVER WEST TEXAS FOR A DAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS DAY
DRY.

THE UPPER HIGH MOVES BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY WHICH
WILL PUT THE PANHANDLES IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL
AGAIN BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT
DAY TO DAY AND A HALF. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS AS IT SEEMS TO
HANDLE CURRENT SITUATION THE BEST.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES AND THE FACT THAT LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

11/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-081100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
600 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO TWO
INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

KB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
740 PM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSE BOISE CITY        36.69N 102.50W
08/07/2013  M64 MPH          CIMARRON           OK   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300750

ABM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
836 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

OKZ002-080230-
TEXAS OK-
836 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN TEXAS COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...

AT 833 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES EAST OF
ELKHART TO 8 MILES EAST OF EVA TO 10 MILES NORTH OF TEXHOMA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HOUGH...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3700 10135 3678 10142 3652 10191 3677 10183
      3699 10196
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 237DEG 15KT 3700 10184 3683 10173
          3665 10179

SCHNEIDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
850 PM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     TEXLINE                 36.38N 103.02W
08/07/2013  E60 MPH          DALLAM             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300751

COCKRELL/SPENCER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
902 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

OKZ002-003-080300-
BEAVER OK-TEXAS OK-
902 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BEAVER AND
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 901 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF ADAMS...OR 22 MILES EAST OF
GUYMON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TURPIN...             BAKER...              ADAMS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3693 10067 3656 10105 3666 10124 3700 10100
      3701 10081
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 214DEG 15KT 3669 10108

SCHNEIDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
906 PM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E GOODWELL            36.60N 101.60W
08/07/2013  M66 MPH          TEXAS              OK   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300752

ABM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
911 PM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E GOODWELL            36.60N 101.60W
08/07/2013  M68 MPH          TEXAS              OK   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300753

ABM