Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
540 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALON A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT KGUY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. HAVE
INSERTED TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS. CHANCES FOR THESE STORMS TO
IMPACT EITHER KDHT AND KAMA ARE LOW AND HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE
PREVAILING GROUPS. SHORT FUSED UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED SHOULD THESE
STORMS REACH EITHER OF THESE TERMINALS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH...EXCEPT AT KDHT WHERE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FIRST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT SVR TSTM WATCH 379 AS WELL AS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT IN KS...PUSHING SWD. OTHER ISOLD
SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING IN SW AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL. REVISED PUBLIC
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KS BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN
NM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT IN CENTRAL KS. WITH THIS FRONT GRADUALLY
SLIDING SOUTH THIS EVENING...THESE STORMS CAN CLIP THE EASTERN
OK/NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE LATER THIS EVENING. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH IF STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS INSTABILITY AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS WEAK AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
NEARBY SO DID GO AHEAD AND TRIMMED THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY...THE AREA
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING ONE MORE
DAY OF THIS OPPRESSIVE HEAT. HOWEVER EASTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL SERVE TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGH TEMPS WITH EXPECTED
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 103 IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NM CAN MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED STORMS CAN TRACK FURTHER
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

CLK

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CUTOFF AND
RETROGRADE WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME BY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN NM MOVING INTO THE AREA VIA NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES DEPENDING ON THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AS IF IT SLIDES TOO FAR WEST...THE AREA
WILL RESIDE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...GREATLY LIMITING PRECIP
CHANCES. OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM SAT
AND NEXT WEEK GIVEN BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

FALLING HEIGHTS...GREATER CLOUD COVER...AND HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO SEASONAL AND EVEN BELOW SEASONABLE
LEVELS. TRENDED TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEX MOS GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. A NICE CHANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO
TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FRIDAY. HOWEVER 20
FOOT WINDS WILL STAY UNDER 20 MPH PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPS...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT BEYOND FRIDAY WILL PRECLUDE ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

14/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
523 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-281100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
523 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE... WITH
LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH
10 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
HOURS. STORMS EACH DAY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
659 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

OKZ002-003-TXZ002>005-280030-
BEAVER OK-HANSFORD TX-LIPSCOMB TX-OCHILTREE TX-SHERMAN TX-TEXAS OK-
659 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SHERMAN...NORTHERN
OCHILTREE...NORTHERN LIPSCOMB...NORTHERN HANSFORD...BEAVER AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 659 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ROSSTON TO 11 MILES EAST OF ELMWOOD TO 6 MILES WEST OF BOOKER TO 4
MILES NORTHWEST OF TEXHOMA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BEAVER...             PERRYTON...           LIPSCOMB...
  TEXHOMA...            SLAPOUT...            KNOWLES...
  HARDESTY...           GRAY...               GOODWELL...
  GATE...               ELMWOOD...            BRYANS CORNER...
  BOYD...               BALKO...              WOLF CREEK PARK...
  WAKA...               GRUVER...             FOLLETT...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS... AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3700 9999 3635 10000 3618 10034 3627 10162
      3660 10198 3671 10089 3685 10045 3701 10018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 320DEG 28KT 3684 9984 3660 10030
          3645 10062 3653 10179

14

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