Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
614 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ALONG WITH SOME DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING EITHER OR
BOTH OF THE AMARILLO AND DALHART TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO FORECAST AT EITHER TAF SITE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY AND UPDATE IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
DIMINISHING AFTER 02Z TO 04Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS...THEN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 14Z TO 15Z FRIDAY TO AROUND
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE CORRIDOR OF BEST INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WHICH STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE...SO WOULD EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES MAY ALSO SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPOTTY AREAS OF RAIN MAY LAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.

THE PANHANDLES WILL BE UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OR JUST TO THE WEST AND A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND THESE WILL INTERACT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH
COULD CAP OUR ATMOSPHERE KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL PUSH BACK TO THE WEST
AND WILL BE NEARING THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE BY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS FORECAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL GET OVER 20 MPH MOST
DAYS...BUT THE LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. EVEN WHERE
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY GETS BELOW 20 PERCENT...THE GREEN UP SHOULD
KEEP ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT BAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

11/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
306 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-210815-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
306 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. HEAVY RAIN
MAY ALSO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

GOEHRING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
451 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

TXZ006-011-202245-
HARTLEY TX-OLDHAM TX-
451 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OLDHAM AND SOUTHERN
HARTLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 450 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NARA VISA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN OLDHAM AND SOUTHERN HARTLEY
  COUNTIES.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3582 10247 3559 10229 3530 10296 3541 10305
      3547 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 238DEG 24KT 3543 10292

SCHNEIDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
657 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

TXZ016>018-210100-
ARMSTRONG TX-DEAF SMITH TX-RANDALL TX-
657 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ARMSTRONG...RANDALL
AND SOUTHEASTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 653 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF
DAWN TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HEREFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HEREFORD...           CANYON...             UMBARGER...
  LAKE TANGLEWOOD...    DAWN...               BUFFALO LAKE...
  TIMBERCREEK CANYON...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 91 AND 121.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3475 10247 3518 10215 3516 10156 3476 10182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 060DEG 4KT 3486 10222 3474 10234

SCHNEIDER

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