Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
630 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE. AT ITS CURRENT SPEED...IT SHOULD ARRIVE AT KAMA AFTER 02Z.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY AND FASTER COLD FRONT IS RIGHT ON ITS
HEELS...SO THINK THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY ARRIVE BEFORE 02Z. THE MAIN
IMPACTS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL BE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE AWW...AND LOW CLOUDS.
CURRENT MODELS AND UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC
SOLUTION...WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. STILL SOME THREAT OF
-FZDZ AND -SN AT KGUY MAINLY AFTER 06Z...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS.
ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS SEEING IFR CEILINGS
ESPECIALLY NEAR 12Z. AFTER 15Z THOUGH...ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
CEILINGS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER.

JOHNSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THROUGH TONIGHT: MOTHER NATURE JUST CAN'T MAKE UP HER MIND WHAT SHE
WANTS THE WEATHER TO DO. HIGHS TODAY HAVE RANGED FROM THE LOWER 90S IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. A VERY STRONG EARLY SPRING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
FROM SOUTH OF PUEBLO TO SOUTH OF GARDEN CITY. THIS FRONT WILL COME
BLASTING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
ABRUPTLY DROPPING TO WINTER LIKE LEVELS. IT MAY BE HARD TO BELIEVE,
BUT TEMPERATURES COULD DROP AS MUCH AS 62 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS. IT'S INTERESTING TO MENTION THAT THE LARGEST
24-HOUR TEMPERATURE SWING RECORDED AT AMARILLO WAS 67 DEGREES AND
OCCURRED DECEMBER 12, 1919. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES, SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES, BUT
IT'S LIKELY THE CAP WILL HOLD IN OUR AREA AND THE BETTER CHANCES OF
STORMS WILL BE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP
IN OUR AREA, IT COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS 3-HOUR
PRESSURE RISES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10 MB. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM
7 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH, BUT WE DIDN'T MENTION THIS
IN THE GRIDS.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POST-FRONTAL WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. UNFORTUNATELY, WE HAVE SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPES FOR TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT A COMBINATION OF
EITHER DRIZZLE, FREEZING DRIZZLE, OR SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODELS FORECAST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE -6 C
TO -8 C LAYER, SO THIS WOULD SUGGEST SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER, IF TEMPERATURES DON'T GET
THIS COLD ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE UPPER DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL NOT
BE SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. THEREFORE,
DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE. PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR JUST ABOUT ALL
LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF ANY MEASUREABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF A TEXLINE TO CANADIAN LINE.
IT'S IN THESE AREAS THAT WE'LL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH TO SEE WHETHER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. IF THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS ALL SNOW, WE'RE NOT REALLY CONCERNED THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH
TRAVEL IMPACT AS ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES. IF THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE
IS FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE, THE IMPACT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER AND COULD CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON AREA BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, WE'LL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL. DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDS, PRECIPITATION, AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE, FREEZING DRIZZLE, OR SNOW
WILL BE LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, EXTENSIVE CLOUDS, AND BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL DOWNRIGHT COLD TOMORROW. IN FACT, HIGHS WILL
BE UP TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MANY LOCATIONS ONLY TOPPING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY
THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SOME VIRGA
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
DRY. FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE WARNINGS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
60S BOTH DAYS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND INCREASE. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE DRY, BUT MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, SOME SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF A
PSEUDO-DRYLINE. NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER AND
SURFACE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF, AND AS A RESULT, IT WOULD SUGGEST
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW, WE ELECTED
TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, IT
LOOKS LIKE A BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR SPRINGLIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING ABRUPTLY WITH GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON TUESDAY BUT STILL FAIRLY
STRONG. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT...PRECLUDING ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 MPH. NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL NOT BE ALIGNED. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

16/15

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013

TXZ005-230000-
LIPSCOMB TX-
636 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIPSCOMB COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM
CDT...

AT 633 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF LIPSCOMB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LIPSCOMB...           HIGGINS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3608 10030 3628 10045 3647 10000 3647 9999
      3612 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 245DEG 25KT 3623 10014

SFJ