Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VCTS AT KDHT AND KGUY, BUT CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING IS ON THE LOW SIDE. IF THERE IS A DIRECT
IMPACT FROM TSRA, BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 KT,
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. BELIEVE KAMA WILL MISS ANY TSRA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THEY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TERMINAL. TSRA
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z ON MONDAY, BUT SINCE THEY WILL BE
ISOLATED, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS 07Z-18Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY 18Z.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

SHORT TERM...
THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

THROUGH TONIGHT...COULD SEE AN INITIAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING DEVELOPING ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH SOME AREAS
STILL 5 F DEGREES BELOW THE CONVECTIVE TEMP...AND LIMITED CONFIDENCE
OF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLES...AM NOT CERTAIN
HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE WILL BE FOR THIS ROUND. STILL A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS TO COME WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. MANY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS MCS COULD
PRIMARILY STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION IN DEEPER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...WAS HESITANT TO LOWER POPS IN THE AREA GIVEN A
STILL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE EVEN LATE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...ONE DIFFERENCE TOMORROW FROM THE LAST
FEW DAYS IS THAT IT MAY TAKE LONGER FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
BEGIN IN A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH CONSIDERABLY HIGHER CIN
VALUES THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE
REGION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD SEE ONE MORE ROUND OF CONVECTION
WITH THE LAST IN THIS SERIES OF TROUGHS THAT SLIDES OVER THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...BY THIS POINT THE RIDGE MAY BE BUILDING ENOUGH THAT THE
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY INHIBIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. FOR
NOW...STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LONG TERM...
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY...BUT CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE REGION
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. UNDER THIS PATTERN...COULD SEE OFF AND ON RAIN
CHANCES WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST...AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINS AND GREEN UP...COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ABOVE 20 PERCENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

JOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

JJ/JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
314 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-170815-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
314 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR
SIZE...STRONG WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

JOHNSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
721 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     HAIL             3 NW CLARENDON          34.97N 100.93W
06/16/2013  M1.00 INCH       DONLEY             TX   STORM CHASER

            HAIL STARTING TO ACCUMULATE ON HIGHWAY 287.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300633

JACKSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
726 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     HAIL             CLARENDON               34.94N 100.89W
06/16/2013  E1.00 INCH       DONLEY             TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300634

ABM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
727 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             5 N GOODNIGHT           35.10N 101.20W
06/16/2013  E2.75 INCH       ARMSTRONG          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEAR FM 1151 AND 294

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300635

COCKRELL