River Flood Warning 3, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

.AVIATION...
TSRA MAY CONCERN THROUGH 06Z AT THE TERMINALS. MOST CONFIDENT THAT
KDHT AND KAMA WILL BE IMPACTED BY TSRA THROUGH THEN. IT'S POSSIBLE
THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHRA 08Z-14Z AT KAMA, BUT CONFIDENCE
OF THESE IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. BRIEF VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A DIRECT TSRA IMPACT.

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE TERMINALS 02Z-08Z WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NNE.

HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR, POSSIBLY A BRIEF STINT OF
IFR, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING IS SOMEWHAT LOWER.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A
COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
COLD FRONT WAS NEARING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE NOW. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING.

HAVE LEFT A SMALL POP OVER THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY UNTIL ABOUT NOON.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LIGHT
WINDS COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES EQUALS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE
NUMBERS...SO THERE IS STILL ROOM TO GO DOWN.

ON SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN AND TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL.

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVEING
DRY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGING WILL
SLIDE OFF TO THE WEST AND ALLOW AN FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH
THE PANHANDLES. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON JUST HOW
MUCH MOISTURE CAN RETURN BEFORE THIS SYSTEMS APPROACHES THE AREA.
THIS DIFFERENCE IN MOSITURE CONTENT SEEMS TO BE CAUSING THE
DIFFERENCES IN RAIN CHANCES. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A CONCENSUS AND
HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS BRIEF
CHANCE FOR RAIN, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW
BEFORE FURTHER TILTIING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK. THE GFS IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BRING BACK AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOSITURE WITH THIS
PATTERN WHERE AS THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY BUT IF A BETTER CONSENSUS FORMS THEN POPS
MAY NEED TO BE INSERTED.

FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BELOW ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY PICK UP EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT LOWEST AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

JC/JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
338 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-200845-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
338 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES. A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS... WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
FRIDAY MORNING. ANY STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
POSSIBLE LIMITED ACTIVATION TONIGHT.

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