Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Amarillo, TX

984 
WWUS84 KAMA 262059
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
359 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

OKZ001-002-TXZ001-002-006-007-270200-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130527T0200Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HARTLEY-MOORE-
359 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA: IN OKLAHOMA...CIMARRON...TEXAS. IN TEXAS... 
  DALLAM...SHERMAN...HARTLEY...MOORE.

* WIND: SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE 
  EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* HUMIDITY: RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 8 AND
  15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. 

* TIMING: CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
  BEGIN AROUND NOON TODAY AND END AROUND 9 PM THIS EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD. AVOID
ACTIVITIES THAT PROMOTE OPEN FLAMES AND SPARKS.

&&

$$


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AMA

533 
WWUS84 KAMA 270201
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
901 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

OKZ001-002-TXZ001-002-006-007-270315-
/O.EXP.KAMA.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130527T0200Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HARTLEY-MOORE-
901 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA: IN OKLAHOMA...CIMARRON...TEXAS COUNTIES. IN TEXAS...
  DALLAM...SHERMAN...HARTLEY...MOORE COUNTIES.
 
* WIND: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

* HUMIDITY: RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE 15 PERCENT.

* TIMING: RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE COMING TO AN END AT THIS TIME.


$$

COCKRELL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
656 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN CO/NM
TODAY PROVIDING BREEZY SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET
ALTHOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN WINDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OFF THE CAPROCK
TODAY...WHICH CAN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT TO IS
UNCERTAIN AND IF IT STAYS WEST OF KGUY/KAMA AN ISOLATED STORM CAN
AFFECT THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS FAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...SFC DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY
NEAR OR JUST E OF A KGUY TO KAMA LINE WITH DEWPOINTS CRATERING TO THE
W. HAVE USED 10 POP RULE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TNGT...INCORPORATING
SLGHT CHC TSTMS FOR ROUGHLY ERN HALF OF FCST AREA. STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE CONTINGENT ON BREAKING THRU A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER STILL
PRESENT OVER THE AREA. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

FOR MONDAY...THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE EVEN FURTHER E AS SW FLOW INCREASES
AT SEVERAL LEVELS. EXPECT DRYLINE TO RACE EWD INTO ERN SECTIONS...LEAVING
WRN AND CNTRL ZONES DRY. SLGT CHC POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS ERN THIRD OF FCST AREA HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THE GRIDS. AGAIN...IF
STORMS FORM...SOME COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WRN TROF BEGINS TO ASSERT ITS INFLUENCE ON SRN
HIGH PLAINS AS EARLY AS LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DRYLINE
MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY SHOULD EDGE INTO CNTRL ZONES BEFORE RETREATING
WWD TUE NIGHT AS PRSSURES FALL ALONG LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. 20 POPS FOR TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN HALF
OF PNHDLS AND AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT SEEM TO FIT MODEL TRENDS. SVR
POTENTIAL IS THERE AS WELL...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS PSBL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WRN
TROF WILL ZIP ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS WED AND WED EVE. ECMWF AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WED AND WED NIGHT...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS A QUICKER END TO THE PRECIP FROM W TO E WED NIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND TIMING TOWARDS LATEST ECMWF AND GFS TRENDS. SVR
POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON A NUMBER OF FACTORS COMING
TOGETHER WHICH...THIS FAR OUT...IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WITH MUCH
CERTAINTY. NO POPS AFTER WED NIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS SEEN ON
ALL MODELS FOR THU THRU SAT.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL OK PNHDL AND THE NW TX PNHDL...AND A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
RECENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SW AND SOUTH
CNTRL TX PNHDL WILL RESULT IN NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY. HOWEVER...ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL
SECTIONS OF THE OK AND TX PNHDLS.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY...MOORE...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-262100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
633 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS WELL AS
THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT. AS A RESULT...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA FROM NOON TODAY UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.
IF STORMS FORM...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ALONG WITH FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 5 TO 15
PERCENT.

ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES DUE TO
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH
FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. IF STORMS FORM...
THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. SOME OF THE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE
READY FOR LIMITED ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...MONDAY... AND
TUESDAY.

ANDRADE