Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ SUPERCELL STORM THAT IMPACTED THE KAMA TERMINAL HAS MOVED
EAST AND NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO KAMA. FORECAST WILL BE DRY
THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.
IFR CIGS AT KGUY SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE HAIL
INDUCED FOG AT KAMA /REDUCING VISBYS TO IFR/ SHOULD ALSO LIFT WITHIN
A COUPLE OF HOURS. BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS DURING THE DAY
AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE TO STAY EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/

AVIATION...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND A DRYLINE
EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAINLY AFFECTING THE AMARILLO TAF SITE THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXCEPT WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS OR GREATER NEAR THE CONVECTION.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE A LOT OF INTERESTING FEATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WAS RETREATING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS FOUND
EAST/WEST ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A JET STREAK IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL PROBABLY HELP THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLES.

NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS FURTHER
WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED MOVE INTO THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES BY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DRYLINE ENDS UP FURTHER EAST THAN
WHAT THE CURRENT MODELS SHOW GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS A DRIER AIR
MASS FILTERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.

FIRE WEATHER...
ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
BE CONDITIONAL ON HOW MUCH AND HOW WIDESPREAD THE RAIN IS TONIGHT...
SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR NOW. IF WE DO NOT
SEE MUCH RAIN...THEN AREAS WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE COULD
SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEST AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. THE WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
443 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-292145-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
443 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE EAST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A PERRYTON TO
CLARENDON LINE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO
5 TO 15 PERCENT WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING EAST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDTIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
107 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     HAIL             6 W AMARILLO            35.20N 101.92W
05/29/2013  M1.00 INCH       POTTER             TX   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERING ROADWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300519

FENNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
110 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 AM     HAIL             PANHANDLE               35.35N 101.38W
05/29/2013  M1.00 INCH       CARSON             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 50-60 MPH WINDS

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300520

BUFFALO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
156 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

TXZ004-005-009-010-290730-
HEMPHILL TX-LIPSCOMB TX-OCHILTREE TX-ROBERTS TX-
156 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ROBERTS...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN OCHILTREE...SOUTHWESTERN LIPSCOMB AND WESTERN HEMPHILL
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

AT 151 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES WEST OF
CANADIAN TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF LORA TO 2 MILES EAST OF CODMAN...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MIAMI...              CANADIAN...           LORA...
  CODMAN...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3610 10030 3586 10022 3565 10022 3563 10088
      3579 10087 3603 10083
TIME...MOT...LOC 0656Z 257DEG 36KT 3596 10059 3579 10057
          3565 10066

KB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
247 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1141 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW AMARILLO          35.17N 101.90W
05/28/2013                   RANDALL            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE 2 TO 3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE WAS SPLIT WITH THE
            SPLIT PART PEELING DOWN AND SOUTHWARD FACING WINDOWS AND
            SKYLIGHTS WERE BROKEN AT AN APARTMENT COMPLEX.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300522

KRAUSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
248 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

TXZ003-004-008-009-290830-
HANSFORD TX-HUTCHINSON TX-OCHILTREE TX-ROBERTS TX-
248 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROBERTS...
SOUTHWESTERN OCHILTREE...NORTHEASTERN HUTCHINSON AND SOUTHEASTERN
HANSFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

AT 245 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTH OF SPEARMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN HUTCHINSON...NORTHWESTERN
  ROBERTS...SOUTHEASTERN HANSFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN OCHILTREE
  COUNTIES.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3626 10081 3598 10064 3586 10117 3608 10130
TIME...MOT...LOC 0749Z 246DEG 28KT 3599 10114

KB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
326 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

TXZ004-005-009-010-290915-
HEMPHILL TX-LIPSCOMB TX-OCHILTREE TX-ROBERTS TX-
326 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ROBERTS...SOUTHERN
OCHILTREE...SOUTHWESTERN LIPSCOMB AND NORTHWESTERN HEMPHILL COUNTIES
UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 322 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WAKA...OR 17 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SPEARMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WOLF CREEK PARK...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3642 10051 3597 10032 3588 10097 3612 10106
TIME...MOT...LOC 0826Z 229DEG 43KT 3610 10088

KB