Wind Chill Advisory 1, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME AREAS A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BITTER COLD IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE
SNOW TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADJUSTING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT OF AN
UNDERACHIEVER. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OFF
LAKE ONTARIO COULD MOVE DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT THAT IS
QUESTIONABLE. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BUT
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITHIN THE BAND IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO
HERKIMER COUNTY...BUT WILL LOOK AT ALL NEW GUIDANCE AND REEVALUATE
FOR LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER WERE SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND IN GENERAL WERE
FOLLOWING TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS INCREASE WITH THE COASTAL LOW
MOVING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. SOME PERSISTENT WESTERLY UPSLOPE
SNOWFALL COUPLED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT MAY ADD ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND THE SRN GREENS.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER AS EVEN COLDER AIR SURGES
IN BEHIND THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD ONLY CLIMB TO BETWEEN 10 AND
AROUND 20 DEGREES.

AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...SHEAR INCREASES AND THE INVERSION LOWERS...ANY
LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NITE WILL DIMINISH AND
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH TO THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS. HAVE FORECAST DECREASING CHANCE POPS IN THOSE
AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THESE SAME AREAS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THAT REGION. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 15
TO 25 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS..TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
ZERO OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...AND
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO OVER THE SOUTH.

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN SOME
AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THE POSSIBILITY FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN THE HWOALY
PRODUCT FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOS GUIDANCE.  NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM EARLIER THINKING.  THURSDAY
BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE THURSDAY
WILL TRANSLATE TO OVERCAST SKIES FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL.  THE STORM WILL BE A QUICK MOVER...THOUGH...WITH THE
SYSTEM OFF OF NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY MORNING.

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GOING WITH ONLY SLGT CHC SNOW SHOWERS
IN LAKE EFFECT AS WIND REGIME WILL BE EITHER TOO NORTHERLY...AS HPC
TENDS TO BE INDICATING...OR BE OF TOO GREAT A VERTICAL SHEAR...AS
PER THE GFS.  SUNDAY NIGHT LINES UP A LITTLE BETTER FOR SOME BRIEF
LAKE EFFECT IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THEN A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
AHEAD OF A QUICK-HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AT THE OFFSET AS
IT IS POISED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH.

THIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF AN UNSEASONABLY COLD PERIOD...WHICH
WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ON THURSDAY
WILL MODERATE DAILY...TO HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BY
MONDAY.  A CLEAR-CUT MODERATION IN THE LOWS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS FROM AROUND -10 TO -15 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  SUNDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN
THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE MID TEENS DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TERMINALS AS OF 06Z. A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT ALL FOUR
TAF SITES AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR AT KPSF WHERE CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST-NORTHWEST AND STEADILY INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KT WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KT...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET BUT A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT-THU NGT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR...CHC -SN.
SAT...VFR...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THE PERSISTENT COLD WILL CAUSE ICE TO FORM ON MOST BODIES
OF WATER. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZE UP ICE JAMS TO
OCCUR ON SMALL STREAMS IN NORTHERN AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL COLDEST TIME OF THE YEAR FOR OUR AREA.

NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 21ST THROUGH 24TH:

ALBANY: HIGHS AROUND 30. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS.
GLENS FALLS: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
POUGHKEEPSIE: HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS.
BENNINGTON: HIGHS AROUND 30. LOWS NEAR 10.
PITTSFIELD: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LOWS NEAR 10.

RECORD LOWS FOR ALBANY (DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
JANUARY 21ST... -18 DEGREES 1994
JANUARY 22ND... -20 DEGREES 1984
JANUARY 23RD... -20 DEGREES 1970
JANUARY 24TH... -17 DEGREES 1948

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...GJM/JPV
CLIMATE...IAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EST MON JAN 21 2013

CTZ001-013-NYZ041-043-049-050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084-221200-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN SARATOGA-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-
430 PM EST MON JAN 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...
TACONICS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SARATOGA GLENS FALLS AREA AND
WASHINGTON COUNTY OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...AND FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>040-042-047-048-051-058-063-082-VTZ013>015-
221200-
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN WARREN-
SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-WESTERN ALBANY-WESTERN GREENE-
WESTERN ULSTER-NORTHERN FULTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-
EASTERN WINDHAM-
430 PM EST MON JAN 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WIND CHILL VALUES COULD BE 15 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VALUES COULD POSSIBLY BE COLDER THAN 30
BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS ONCE
EXACT LOCATIONS AND WIND CHILL VALUES ARE DETERMINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.