Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR
ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NY AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IS BEING REALIZED...WITH SBCAPES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A
POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT. FURTHERMORE...A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...POSSIBLY A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NYS. THIS BOUNDARY...OR JUST AHEAD OF
IT...SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN SFC BASED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT...GIVEN STRONG 0-6 KM
SHEAR...WITH 500 MB WINDS AROUND 50 KT...UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP/FORM BOWING SEGMENTS AND MAY RAPIDLY
MOVE ACROSS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT
AND BERKSHIRES. IN ADDITION...BEFORE CONGEALING...SOME MORE
DISCRETE CELLS MAY ATTAIN MID LEVEL ROTATION AND ALLOW FOR LARGE
HAIL FORMATION. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION
OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SINK FURTHER S AND E LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARD OR AROUND
SUNSET. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH. TO THE NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTH THE SHOWERS MAY
EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD IN WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 NORTH DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AT NIGHT BUT NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES RESULTING FROM ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS OVER THE
REGION.

THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE DISPARITIES AMONG VARIOUS
SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY...TO CHANCE BY SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. WILL MENTION VCTS STARTING BETWEEN 18Z-21Z...BUT
SCATTERED NATURE PRECLUDES ANY TEMPO FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL THE STORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TRACKED CLOSELY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.

UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH REGARDS TO FOG
POTENTIAL BASED ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
WITH IFR POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z
TOMORROW MORNING.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KT. WINDS COULD BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.

THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A HALF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-181100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
121 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS OF 58 MPH OR HIGHER...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL ONE
INCH DIAMETER OR GREATER.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AT 35 TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING... ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN HAS BEEN ACTIVATED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN CONNECTICUT...LITCHFIELD.

IN MASSACHUSETTS...BERKSHIRE.

IN NEW YORK...ALBANY...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...FULTON...GREENE...HAMILTON...
HERKIMER...MONTGOMERY...RENSSELAER...SARATOGA...SCHENECTADY...SCHOHARIE...
ULSTER...WARREN...AND WASHINGTON.

IN VERMONT...BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1227 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

NYZ032-033-038-041>043-083-084-171730-
HAMILTON NY-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON NY-NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-
NORTHERN WARREN NY-SOUTHEAST WARREN NY-NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
1227 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  HAMILTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 1220 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH
HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND WARREN COUNTIES...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE PLEASANT AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF MOFFITT BEACH CAMPGROUND BY 1245
PM EDT
WELLS BY 1255 PM EDT
SACANDAGA CAMPGROUND BY 100 PM EDT
LAKE LUZERNE CAMPGROUND BY 130 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4406 7507 4407 7489 4400 7425 4392 7432
      4382 7421 4383 7414 4380 7405 4375 7405
      4381 7338 4377 7334 4359 7342 4358 7339
      4363 7337 4363 7332 4353 7323 4333 7325
      4332 7510 4409 7518
TIME...MOT...LOC 1625Z 280DEG 33KT 4343 7467

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084-171830-
HAMILTON NY-MONTGOMERY NY-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON NY-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-NORTHERN WARREN NY-SOUTHEAST WARREN NY-
SOUTHERN FULTON NY-NORTHERN FULTON NY-NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
121 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN

  HAMILTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  FULTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 116 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES EAST OF WHITEHALL
TO 15 MILES WEST OF NORTHWOOD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FAIR
HAVEN TO 13 MILES WEST OF HINCKLEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SACANDAGA
CAMPGROUND...NORTHAMPTON BEACH PUBLIC CAMPGROUND...MOFFITT BEACH
CAMPGROUND...LAKE PLEASANT...LAKE LUZERNE CAMPGROUND...HARTFORD...
COMSTOCK...CEDARVILLE...CAROGA LAKE PUBLIC CAMPGROUND...WEST GLENS
FALLS...WELLS...WARRENSBURG...STRATFORD...POLAND...OHIO...
NORTHVILLE...NEWPORT...MOHAWK...MIDDLEVILLE...MAYFIELD...LITTLE
FALLS...LAKE LUZERNE-HADLEY...LAKE GEORGE VILLAGE...ILION...HUDSON
FALLS...HERKIMER...GRANVILLE...GLENS FALLS...FRANKFORT...FORT
EDWARD...EDINBURG...DOLGEVILLE...DAY CENTER...CRANBERRY CREEK...
CORINTH...COLD BROOK...CAROGA LAKE AND BOLTON LANDING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4322 7508 4326 7516 4330 7515 4334 7509
      4343 7509 4359 7342 4358 7340 4360 7329
      4355 7324 4353 7323 4332 7325 4289 7516
      4297 7522 4306 7522
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 282DEG 27KT 4358 7317 4337 7533

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
224 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FORT EDWARD             43.27N  73.58W
06/17/2013                   WASHINGTON         NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON RT. 4 IN FORT EDWARD

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1300206

SND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRANVILLE               43.41N  73.26W
06/17/2013                   WASHINGTON         NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1300207

SND