Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1204 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE. DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #271 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR ALL OF
FA EXCEPT FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FA. MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF
THE CONVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...BUT A
PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY...THROUGH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND POINTS EAST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EARLIER ONSET
OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD KEEP WESTERN
AREAS A LITTLE COOLER...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S.

INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND IS WORDED IN THE TEXT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES.

THE STORMS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE DISPLACED FROM
THE BEST LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET FORCING AND SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL SUPPORT STRONG ENOUGH
UPDRAFTS FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...WITH 45 KT BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS GETTING ENHANCED BY THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. HAIL WILL
BE A THREAT AS WELL...BUT CHANCES FOR ANY EXTREME SEVERE WEATHER
SUCH AS HAIL GREATER THAN GOLF BALL SIZED OR WINDS GREATER THAN 75
MPH OR TORNADOES LOOKS VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT SHOULD EXIT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S...A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE BEST BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ADVANCING THERMAL GRADIENT AND EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOK TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WELL BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A BIT SLOWER CLEARING...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH
NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES. GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD
EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD SPREAD EAST
AS WELL...BUT AGAIN WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO REDEVELOP CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE MIXING FROM THE BREEZY WINDS AND INCREASING
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH SOLIDLY INTO THE
70S...BUT UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
SLOW TO LOOSEN...SUGGESTING WINDS MAY NOT GO CALM AT NIGHT AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SO...LOWS IN THE 40S
MONDAY NIGHT...AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...
SOME MID 70S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOME 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS A BIT
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO GFS/ECMWF SPEEDING UP THE
TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE
MUDDLED...AS THE PATTERN BECOMES COMPLEX AND CHAOTIC. THE GFS IS
INDICATING A DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETTING UP. THIS COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE OVERALL LARGE SPREAD AMONG VARIOUS SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME INCLUDING THE ECMWF...WHICH IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH HEAVY PRECIP. EITHER WAY...WILL AT LEAST MENTION
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
LACKING...SO WILL LABEL AS SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY
DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...SO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND MAY NOT END UP WET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS THAT WILL BE PRESENT. DUE TO EXPECTED MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL FORECAST SMALLER THAN
NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A SERIES
OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NOON TODAY...BUT WITH BROKEN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THEN THE THREAT FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER AROUND 17Z OR 18Z AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WILL TRIGGER
CONVECTION. FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GROUPS FOR
TSRA STARTING AT 17Z FOR KGFL/KALB AND 18Z FOR KPOU/KPSF. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KT AND LARGE
HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL DIMINISH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY LESS THAN 10 KT UNTIL AROUND MID
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA MAINLY NEAR KPOU.
MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC PM -SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

RH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE...NEAR 80 TO 100 PERCENT
DURING THE NIGHTS. MINIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE 50
TO 70 PERCENT TODAY AND 30 TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

DRIER COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE PERIOD INTO
MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A SLOW MOVING BUT STRONG
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO HEAD OUR WAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL THESE
FACTORS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND ALLOW FOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT A HALF INCH TO INCH RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN SLOWER MOVING
LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1144 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-
VTZ013>015-031100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-
NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1144 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK
EXCLUDING THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRE...ALBANY...COLUMBIA
DUTCHESS...FULTON...GREENE...MONTGOMERY...RENSSELAER...SARATOGA
SCHENECTADY...SCHOHARIE...ULSTER...WARREN...WASHINGTON...BENNINGTON
...WINDHAM.

NYZ032-033-038-031100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
1144 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MAINLY NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 PM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST WINFIELD           42.88N  75.19W
06/02/2013                   HERKIMER           NY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN AT 256 BURROWS ROAD AND TREE ON
            HOUSE AT 8900 SR 51.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1300174

HWJIV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E OLD FORGE           43.71N  74.87W
06/01/2013                   HERKIMER           NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE DOWN ON SOUTH SHORE ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1300175

11