Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
515 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME LOCALLY
SEVERE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TO OUR EAST...LEAVING US
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. THEN...SUMMER
HEAT WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW...LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 11 PM EDT FOR
OUR ENTIRE REGION.

AS OF 515 PM EDT...BGM HAS ISSUED A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WARNINGS FOR CAYUGA...MADISON...ONEIDA AND ONONDAGA COUNTIES IN
THEIR COUNTY WARNING AREA. IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER...THESE STORMS
COULD WORK INTO OUR REGION AROUND 600 PM. THERE A FEW NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS WORKING INTO SCHOHARIE COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE REMAINDER OF
OUR REGION. WE ARE UNDERNEATH A LOT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS AS IF SOME CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY
6 PM AS LEAST TEMPORARILY.

THE CELL IN ONEIDA COUNTY WAS WORKING INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY
AND A SEVERE WARNING HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT CELL.  JUST
RECEIVE A REPORT OF A LOT OF TREES DOWN IN THE SYRACUSE AREA...SO
THESE STORMS ARE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.

A POTENT SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING FURTHER INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
OUR AREA WILL WELL SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION
LATER ON THIS EVENING AS WELL.

WE STILL CANNOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN AS THESE STORMS MARCH TOWARD OUR
REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN OUR REGION HAVE BEEN
MARGINAL...AROUND 6.0 CM/K BUT CLOSER TO 6.5 OR EVEN HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. SBCAPES HAVE REACH AROUND
1000 J/KG OR HIGHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION WEST AND SOUTH.

WE ARE THINKING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT
SEVERE...HOWEVER OUR WHOLE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) WAS PLACED INTO
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SINCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND WINDS
ALOFT WERE STRONGEST TO OUR NORTHEAST...THE INSTABILITY HIGHEST TO
OUR SOUTHWEST.

WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS...SINCE IT WAS ALREADY INCLUDED AND PWATS WILL BE
AROUND 1.75 INCHES...SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OFF THE CHARTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FOR LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. FOR
NOW JUST PLACED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS IN THE USUAL "FOGGY" PLACES.
ONCE WE SEE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL TAKES PLACE...WE WOULD GO AHEAD
AND INCREASE FOG COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY CALL IT DENSE.

LARGE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC...WHILE
ALOFT A RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
SUMMERY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL...BEGINNING TOMORROW AND
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO ABOUT
+17C. WITH GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 5000 FEET AND LOTS OF LATE MAY
SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE LOWER 90S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD. HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL EVEN WARM WELL INTO THE
80S.

OVERNIGHTS LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MUGGY...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S EXCEPT UPPER 50S IN SOME
OF THE COOLER OUTLYING SPOTS.

DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...MODERATE BUT NOT
EXCESSIVELY HIGH. APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINE THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY) LOOK TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
90S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO
HOT BUT NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF HEAT STATEMENTS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

WITH A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD THERE SHOULD BE AN INHIBITING
CAP ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT ANY CU THAT FORMS WILL
LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME BREAKING THE CAP. WE DID GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THURSDAY
(WHERE WE FEEL HAVE THE BEST FOR PARCELS TO DEVELOP CONVECTION). BY
FRIDAY...WE CONTINUED TO KEEP IT TOTALLY DRY FOR NOW AS THE RIDGE
WILL BE STRONGEST AT THAT TIME.

SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AND HEAD
EAST. THEREFORE...WE CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES EARLY...GOING TO
30 POPS FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHT CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE HEAT RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT...CROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. AHEAD OF IT...IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR EVEN
LOCALLY SEVERE. STILL TOO EARLY TO LOOK AT SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS...HOWEVER IT LOOKS POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITH A PRETTY
STRONG WIND ALOFT. WWE WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS THE TIME NEARS.

THIS FRONT COULD BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS IT
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH.

NOTICEABLY COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY...THE LATEST EUROPEAN SHOWS A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING TO OUR NORTH. THIS IS NOT DETECTED AS WELL BY THE GFS. SINCE
THE EUROPEAN HAS FORECASTED THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL RUNS...WE WILL
LEAN WITH ITS SOLUTION. THIS MEANS TUESDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY BY
EARLY JUNE STANDARDS. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...INTRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS ONLY. H850 TEMPERATURES ON THE
EUROPEAN MODEL LOOK TO COOL DOWN INTO THE LOW SINGLE NUMBERS...WHICH
WOULD MEAN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...MAYBE TOUCHING 70 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGHER TERRAIN WOULD ACTUALLY SEE HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 50S.

IT WILL TURN CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
MIGHT KEEP UP ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO PREVENT FROST ANYWHERE. EVEN
SO...WE WILL HAVE LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE COLDEST
SPOTS TO 40S.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING BACK
TO NEAR 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE TEMPERED THE TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL 22Z AT OUR TAF SITES...AND
NOT AS MUCH GUSTS.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MAINLY VFR...THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A WARM FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS WELL AS INCREASED WINDS. HAVE
INDICATED A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL TAF SITES WITH WINDS 25020G35 KTS.

THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT BY MID EVENING...
SO JUST INDICATING VCSH AFTER 00Z. AFTER 06Z EXPECT SOME FOG WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT LIFR AT KGFL.

THU MORNING FA WILL BE CLEARLY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MAINLY P6M
BKN035 CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z THU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING EXCEPT HIGHER GUSTS IN CONVECTION AS MENTIONED
EARLIER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
WEST AROUND 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...VFR/MVFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -TSRA EACH DAY. LATE NIGHT AND/OR
EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR ASSOC WITH FOG POSSIBLE.
SUN-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES LOOK TO BE NEAR 100 PERCENT THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH
LOTS OF DEW...DROPPING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ANY ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. AFTER THIS EVENING...ANY
ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ISOLATED AT BEST THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ANY OF THOSE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

THE WIND WILL SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO WEST THIS EVENING.
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH EACH OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LIGHT OR CALM EACH OF THE NIGHTS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHEN A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT HEADS INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FOUR DAYS ACROSS
THE HSA.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY AT 30 MPH. THEY COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT UNLESS
THEY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA (LOOKING UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME)...THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING LOOKS VERY LOW.

A THUNDERSTORM COULD ALWAYS PRODUCE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

AFTER THIS EVENING...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY LOOKS
VERY LOW...ISOLATED AT BEST. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE HIGHER HUMIDITY BUT AGAIN THAT
WOULD THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MIGHT INCREASE A LITTLE ON SATURDAY...AND A
LOT ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-301100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
338 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM...

IN NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...LITCHFIELD...

IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...BERKSHIRE...

IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...ALBANY...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...FULTON...
GREENE...HAMILTON...HERKIMER...MONTGOMERY...RENSSELAER...SARATOGA...
SCHENECTADY...SCHOHARIE...ULSTER...WARREN...WASHINGTON...

IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...BENNINGTON...WINDHAM...

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
501 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

NYZ032-038-292200-
NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-
501 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...

AT 458 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FRANKFORT...OR ABOUT OVER UTICA...AND MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTH OF FRANKFORT BY 510 PM EDT
NEWPORT...7 MILES SOUTH OF POLAND...7 MILES NORTH OF HERKIMER AND 7
MILES SOUTH OF COLD BROOK BY 515 PM EDT
MIDDLEVILLE BY 520 PM EDT
7 MILES NORTH OF LITTLE FALLS BY 525 PM EDT
DOLGEVILLE BY 535 PM EDT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4322 7508 4328 7516 4330 7515 4334 7508
      4334 7487 4328 7471 4318 7470 4314 7474
      4313 7473 4311 7477 4308 7477 4300 7474
      4293 7476 4299 7522 4306 7522
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 264DEG 38KT 4312 7524

TAW/IRL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
556 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             FAIRFIELD               43.14N  74.91W
05/29/2013  M1.00 INCH       HERKIMER           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERED GROUND WITH HAILSTONES UP TO ONE INCH IN
            DIAMETER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1300114

BEW