Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THIS
EVENING. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN AUTUMNAL AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 523 CONTINUES FOR ALL
OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 8 PM.

THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING IS FROM AROUND THE SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGION SOUTH
AND EAST...AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. A HANDFUL OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...ALONG WITH URBAN/SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH SBCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF BETWEEN 30-40 KT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY
RAIN. THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR WHERE HAVE T-STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER
THE SAME AREAS.

THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS LAGGING BACK ACROSS WESTERN NY AND LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR WESTERN AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW STRONG THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST WILL BE
BASED ON FAIRLY LIMITED INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...SO THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH T-STORMS. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH GOING FOR NOW.

THE SEVERITY AND COVERAGE OF T-STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER DARK AS
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
PUSHING THE FRONT STEADILY EASTWARD. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WITH COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR FILTERING IN BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION...AND IT WILL FEEL VERY AUTUMN-LIKE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
BE INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE REGION...WITH MULTIPLE SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH RESULTING
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF JUST NORTH OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...BUT SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY
FROST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH MAINLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
EXPECTED AND LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. IT
SHOULD BE A PLEASANTLY COOL EARLY FALL DAY WITH LESS WIND THAN
FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE
AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO. ELSEWHERE IT
WILL BE A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER TRANQUIL DAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS
MAY START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE ONLY
FEATURE PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEING AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
PRIOR TO THAT...THE PASSAGE OF A PRETTY DRY COLD FRONT MAY SQUEEZE
OUT PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WARMING INTO THE 60 TO MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
READINGS AVERAGING ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER MONDAY NIGHT.  BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK UP IN THE 40S AND LOWER
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH
TO MVFR/IFR WITH HEAVIER PCPN. MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS WELL AS STEADY SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. IFR FOG WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP AT KGFL AND KPSF LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 13Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR
CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME...WITH MORE WET WEATHER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO
TONIGHT. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS
AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN AUTUMNAL AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON FRIDAY...AND THE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE...URBAN...AND LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN FALLING IN
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS EVEN A THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...RAINFALL TOTALS MAY REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES. SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES
WILL OCCUR ON MAIN STEM RIVERS...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED BASED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NERFC. FLOWS REMAIN AT NORMAL TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS HEADING INTO MID SEPTEMBER.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...BUT RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-
VTZ013>015-131100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-
NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
105 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 523 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK
EXCLUDING THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ALSO...MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND OTHER LOW
LYING LOCATIONS IS POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY
MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

NYZ032-033-131100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
105 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 523 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ALSO...MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND OTHER LOW
LYING LOCATIONS IS POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY
MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
314 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NISKAYUNA               42.82N  73.90W
09/12/2013                   SCHENECTADY        NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN - MOHAWK TRAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1300432

FRUGIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
316 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NISKAYUNA               42.82N  73.90W
09/12/2013                   SCHENECTADY        NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREES DOWN - MOHAWK TRAIL

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER ALY1300432

FRUGIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
316 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

VTZ013>015-121945-
BENNINGTON VT-WESTERN WINDHAM VT-EASTERN WINDHAM VT-
316 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN

  BENNINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...
  WINDHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

AT 312 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 50
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED NEAR STRATTON...OR ABOUT OVER STRATTON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
STRATTON BY 325 PM EDT
WEST WARDSBORO BY 330 PM EDT
TOWNSHEND AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEWFANE BY 345 PM EDT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4306 7246 4300 7244 4298 7246 4295 7253
      4287 7295 4314 7316 4325 7276 4323 7270
      4324 7244 4323 7243 4315 7245 4312 7243
      4308 7243
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 245DEG 24KT 4300 7295

IRL/NAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

MAZ001-VTZ013-122000-
BENNINGTON VT-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-
333 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  BENNINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...
  BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...

AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW
ASHFORD...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTH ADAMS...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ADAMS BY 340 PM EDT
NORTH ADAMS AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAVOY BY 345 PM EDT
FLORIDA AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STAMFORD BY 355 PM EDT
6 MILES SOUTH OF READSBORO BY 400 PM EDT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4273 7301 4271 7301 4271 7295 4270 7294
      4267 7298 4267 7295 4265 7294 4255 7297
      4253 7297 4246 7337 4275 7326 4284 7293
      4274 7293
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 244DEG 24KT 4262 7319

IRL/NAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
342 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

NYZ041-050-053-054-084-122015-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON NY-EASTERN RENSSELAER NY-WESTERN RENSSELAER NY-
SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
342 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  RENSSELAER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 340 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 45 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MECHANICVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
8 MILES SOUTH OF GREENWICH BY 400 PM EDT
CAMBRIDGE BY 410 PM EDT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4327 7366 4323 7331 4293 7327 4280 7383
      4300 7384
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 253DEG 33KT 4293 7368

BJF

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