Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Albany, NY

077 
WGUS71 KALY 012251
FFSALY

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

NYC035-043-057-020230-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-130702T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY NY-FULTON NY-HERKIMER NY-
651 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER...SOUTHWESTERN FULTON AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES...

AT 643 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR HERKIMER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  DOPPLER RADAR 
RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS 
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE TOWN OF WINFIELD. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LITTLE
FALLS...FORT PLAIN...CANAJOHARIE...MIDDLEVILLE...ST. JOHNSVILLE...
DOLGEVILLE...EPHRATAH AND FONDA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
ALBANY.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT
ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV OR TWITTER
@NWSALBANY.

&&

LAT...LON 4319 7509 4311 7466 4296 7434 4283 7456
      4283 7467 4289 7486 4289 7488 4283 7489
      4283 7494 4290 7509 4285 7514 4286 7522
      4292 7521 4303 7523

$$

BGM

871 
WGUS71 KALY 012317
FFSALY

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
717 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

NYC035-043-057-020230-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-130702T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY NY-FULTON NY-HERKIMER NY-
717 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER...SOUTHWESTERN FULTON AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES...

AT 707 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED  
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IN THE TOWNS 
OF FRANKFORT...ILION AND HERKIMER ALONG WITH A MUDSLIDE IN 
PROGRESS.  MULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.  THESE STORMS 
WERE LOCATED NEAR MIDDLEVILLE...OR NEAR LITTLE FALLS...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE RECOMMENDING NO 
TRAVELING ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
DOLGEVILLE...EPHRATAH AND FONDA.

REPEAT...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER 
COUNTY. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT 
ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV OR TWITTER
@NWSALBANY.

&&

LAT...LON 4319 7509 4311 7466 4296 7434 4283 7456
      4283 7467 4289 7486 4289 7488 4283 7489
      4283 7494 4290 7509 4285 7514 4286 7522
      4292 7521 4303 7523

$$

BGM/IRL

704 
WGUS71 KALY 012358
FFSALY

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
758 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

NYC035-043-057-020230-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-130702T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY NY-FULTON NY-HERKIMER NY-
758 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN 
FULTON COUNTY AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER...SOUTHWESTERN FULTON AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES...

AT 747 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 
OFFICIALS REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LIFE THREATENING FLASH 
FLOODING IN THE TOWNS OF FORT PLAIN...ILION AND HERKIMER ALONG WITH 
A MUDSLIDE IN PROGRESS. MULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES AND ROAD WASHOUTS 
HAVE BEEN REPORTED. EVACUATIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNDERWAY IN THE TOWN 
OF FORT PLAIN ALONG THE OTSQUAGO CREEK DUE TO RAPID WATER RISES. 
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR MIDDLEVILLE...OR NEAR LITTLE 
FALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE RECOMMENDING NO 
TRAVELING ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
FONDA...DOLGEVILLE AND EPHRATAH.

REPEAT...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER 
COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTY AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY. 
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF 
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT
ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV OR TWITTER
@NWSALBANY.

&&

LAT...LON 4319 7509 4311 7466 4296 7434 4283 7456
      4283 7467 4289 7486 4289 7488 4283 7489
      4283 7494 4290 7509 4285 7514 4286 7522
      4292 7521 4303 7523

$$

IRL

554 
WGUS51 KALY 020141
FFWALY
NYC035-043-057-020630-
/O.EXT.KALY.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-130702T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
941 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...ILION...HERKIMER...
  WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FORT PLAIN...

* UNTIL 230 AM EDT

* AT 928 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 
OFFICIALS REPORTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LIFE 
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IN THE TOWNS OF FORT PLAIN...ILION AND 
HERKIMER ALONG WITH A MUDSLIDE IN PROGRESS. MULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES 
AND ROAD WASHOUTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE 
CURRENTLY UNDERWAY IN THE TOWNS OF FRANKFORT AND FORT PLAIN ALONG 
THE OTSQUAGO CREEK DUE TO RAPID WATER RISES. IN THE VILLAGE OF 
HERKIMER...THE FLOOD CONTROL DIKE ALONG BELLINGER BROOK BEHIND THE 
HERKIMER HIGH SCHOOL IS FAILING.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR ILION AND LITTLE 
FALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE RECOMMENDING NO 
TRAVELING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
WINFIELD...GERMAN FLATTS AND EPHRATAH.

REPEAT...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER 
COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTY AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY. 
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT
ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV OR TWITTER
@NWSALBANY.

&&

LAT...LON 4319 7509 4311 7466 4296 7434 4283 7456
      4283 7467 4289 7486 4289 7488 4283 7489
      4283 7494 4290 7509 4285 7514 4286 7522
      4292 7521 4303 7523

$$

IRL/BGM

052 
WGUS71 KALY 020307
FFSALY

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1107 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

NYC035-043-057-020630-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-130702T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY NY-FULTON NY-HERKIMER NY-
1107 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN 
FULTON COUNTY AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

...A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM EDT FOR 
SOUTHERN HERKIMER...SOUTHWESTERN FULTON AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY 
COUNTIES...

AT 1100 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 
OFFICIALS REPORTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LIFE 
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IN THE TOWNS OF FORT PLAIN...ILION AND 
HERKIMER ALONG WITH A MUDSLIDE IN PROGRESS. MULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES 
AND ROAD WASHOUTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE 
CURRENTLY UNDERWAY IN THE TOWNS OF FRANKFORT AND FORT PLAIN ALONG 
THE OTSQUAGO CREEK DUE TO RAPID WATER RISES. IN THE VILLAGE OF 
HERKIMER...THE FLOOD CONTROL DIKE ALONG BELLINGER BROOK BEHIND THE 
HERKIMER HIGH SCHOOL IS FAILING.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR ILION AND LITTLE 
FALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE RECOMMENDING NO 
TRAVELING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
WINFIELD...GERMAN FLATTS AND EPHRATAH.

REPEAT...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER 
COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTY AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY. 
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE 
IN THE WARNED AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT
ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV OR TWITTER
@NWSALBANY.

&&

LAT...LON 4319 7509 4311 7466 4296 7434 4283 7456
      4283 7467 4289 7486 4289 7488 4283 7489
      4283 7494 4290 7509 4285 7514 4286 7522
      4292 7521 4303 7523

$$

IRL

378 
WGUS71 KALY 020616
FFSALY

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013

NYC035-043-057-020622-
/O.CAN.KALY.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-130702T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY NY-FULTON NY-HERKIMER NY-
216 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHERN 
HERKIMER...SOUTHWESTERN FULTON AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE REPORTED THAT FLASH FLOOD WATERS HAVE 
ABATED...SO THE FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

HOWEVER...THERE STILL IS ONGOING LINGERING FLOODING...ESPECIALLY 
ALONG STREAMS...IN URBAN AREAS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. 
SOME ROADS REMAIN CLOSED.

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING 
FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT
ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV OR TWITTER
@NWSALBANY.

LAT...LON 4319 7509 4311 7466 4296 7434 4283 7456
      4283 7467 4289 7486 4289 7488 4283 7489
      4283 7494 4290 7509 4285 7514 4286 7522
      4292 7521 4303 7523

$$

JPV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
315 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY...

A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO
THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF
-SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING
SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW.

AT 1230PM ONE OF THESE SHORT WVS IS EXITING THE E PTNS OF THE
FCA...WMFNT MOISTURE/-SHRA SURGES ARE DEVELOPING FM W/CNTRL NYS
TWRD ADIRONDACKS. MOST OF AREA WILL BE QUIET NEXT FEW HOURS TILL
DIURNALLY CONVECTION FIRES IN S. WMFNT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALREADY
WATER LOGGED AREAS OF W MHWK VLY AND W ADNDKS.

ATM HRRR HAS THE SITUATION WELL HANDLED ATTM. DURING THE EVENING
HOURS THE NEXT SHORT WV COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF -SHRA/SCT TSTMS OVERSPREADING RGN AFT 21UTC....PARTICULARLY
N OF MSV-BRATTLEBORO LN. WRF HAS FRONTAL OUTBREAK A TAD FURTHER S.

WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND BYND. WITH RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER
SATURATED...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO
RENEWED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND WMFNT
REMAIN. WMFMT SURGES (OVERRUNNING) PCPN MAX AREA FM ADIRONDACKS
INTO SVT OVERNIGHT ON NAM...GFS ACROSS MOST OF FCA...GEM TRACKS IT
BWTN. WHILE TIMING AND LOCALES MAY BE HARD TO PIN DOWN...THE
THREAT OF SURGES OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE N
ADIRONDACKS.

TUES THE WMFNT CONTINUES N AND EXITS THE FCA BY 00UTC WED. PCPN
ASSOC WITH WMFNTL/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY ACROSS N TIER...WHILE
BULK OF FCA IS IN OR ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE SCT-BKN
SHRA/TSTMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BCM MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
BREAKS AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABV MONDAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD.
MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN RH AND QPF...TWO THINGS MODELS DRIVEN BY
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR CONVECTION DON'T DO ESPECIALLY WELL
AT.

WHILE THE WMFNT HAS LARGELY DEPARTED THE FCA...THE RICH TROPICAL
PLUME LINGERS ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW HOVER AROUND 2.O
INCHES DECREASING TO 1.5 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

TUES NT THE WMFNT WILL STILL BE NR N AND W TIER...ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE THE SHRA/TSTM THREAT
DURING THIS PERIOD BCMS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN

WITH RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE...FCA IN WM SECTOR...BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING ONTO E SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD....MORNING CLOUDS
WILL THIN...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BCM MORE COMMON EACH DAY
AND AFTN SUN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTMS. OVERALL POPS WILL
BE TRENDING DOWN FM LIKELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO CHC BY
THE 4TH OF JULY (THU). SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING UP.
NIGHTS WILL STILL BE MUGGY AND WARM...EVEN BY MARYLAND STANDARDS.
LOWS IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
80S...THUR THE MID 80S TO NR 90. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD...WHAT DOES FIRE WILL BE STRONGER AS CAPES WITH MORE
SUN BEGIN APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE EFP MAJOR W ATLC ANTICYCLONE AT SFC AND 500HPA (KNOWN
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH) RETROGRADES TO THE ATLC SEABOARD..AS THE
500HPA TROF RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS.

THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS FCA FRI...THE GFS
SHIFTS IT OUT OF THE FCA FOR THE WEEKEND AND BACK MONDAY. THE GEM
DISPLACES IT FURTHER N AND W TO W PERIPHERY...AND ECMWF HAS IT
DRIFTING IN AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE VARIABLE SUNSHINE...VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH CHC MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS. THE THREAT WILL
BE LEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S TO ARND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE VSBYS HAVE
GENERALLY INCREASED ABOVE 6 SM...CIGS REMAINS MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE
AREA.  THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES
FOR EARLY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD REDUCE
VSBYS/CIGS BACK TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
DUE TO LOW AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...AND THERE IS NOT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S. THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING.

THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN FLYING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS. STILL...FLYING CONDITIONS
MAY REMAIN MVFR WITH SOME BKN LOWER CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS FOR MOST OF THE TIME.

OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-SAT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.

A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.

THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE.  THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.  THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826.  THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-021200-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
413 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SEND ANY RAINFALL REPORTS OF 2 INCHES
OR MORE AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE VIA THE SEVERE WEATHER REPORT FORM ON THE INTERNET OR BY
TELEPHONE.

CORRECTED TEXT AND EXPIRATION TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 AM EDT MON JUL 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ROSENDALE               41.85N  74.08W
07/01/2013                   ULSTER             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            INTERSECTION OF RT. 32 AND WASHINGTON AVE. IN ROSENDALE
            IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1300303

LFM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1056 AM EDT MON JUL 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE HYDE PARK         41.79N  73.91W
07/01/2013                   DUTCHESS           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            INTERSECTION OF CRUM ELBOW ROAD AND CARDINAL ROAD
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1300304

LFM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1058 AM EDT MON JUL 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      STAATSBURG              41.85N  73.92W
07/01/2013                   DUTCHESS           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            3 HOUSES FLOODED ON BLUE HERON LANE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1300305

LFM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT MON JUL 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E PACHIN MILLS        42.00N  73.62W
07/01/2013                   COLUMBIA           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            FINKLE ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. ROAD IS WASHED
            OUT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1300306

LFM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT MON JUL 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW ANCRAMDALE        42.02N  73.61W
07/01/2013                   COLUMBIA           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            SKYLINE ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1300307

LFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
235 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

NYZ038-011945-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-
235 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

...A QUICK PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL HEADED TOWARDS

  HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...

AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.  THESE SHOWERS WERE
LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF JORDANVILLE...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTH OF
HARTWICK...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

THE HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR...
JORDANVILLE AND 8 MILES EAST OF WEST WINFIELD BY 300 PM EDT
CEDARVILLE BY 310 PM EDT
ILION...MOHAWK AND HERKIMER BY 320 PM EDT
FRANKFORT BY 325 PM EDT
7 MILES WEST OF MIDDLEVILLE BY 340 PM EDT
6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEWPORT BY 345 PM EDT

A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN A HALF HOUR PERIOD IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF SHOWERS.

LAT...LON 4322 7508 4324 7495 4288 7483 4289 7488
      4284 7488 4282 7490 4290 7509 4285 7514
      4285 7521 4286 7522 4292 7521 4306 7522
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 169DEG 19KT 4276 7501

FRUGIS