Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Albany, NY

099 
WGUS71 KALY 280831
FFSALY

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
431 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

NYC035-043-057-281030-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-130628T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY NY-FULTON NY-HERKIMER NY-
431 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER...WESTERN FULTON AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 424 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING IN 
THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
STRATFORD...POLAND...OHIO...NORTHWOOD...NEWPORT...MIDDLEVILLE...
COLUMBIA CENTER AND COLD BROOK...

TRAINED SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES IN 
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN COLUMBIA CENTER.  AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN 
INCH TO INCH OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY.  SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING 
CONTINUES DUE TO THE SATURATED SOILS AND THE DEBRIS AROUND FROM THE 
FLASH FLOODING EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION 
WITH NUMEROUS ROAD WASHOUTS AND IMPACTS TO HOMES LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT
ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV OR TWITTER
@NWSALBANY.

&&

LAT...LON 4322 7508 4326 7516 4330 7515 4334 7509
      4346 7510 4346 7479 4334 7487 4324 7458
      4323 7451 4279 7449 4289 7486 4282 7490
      4290 7509 4285 7514 4286 7522 4289 7521
      4306 7522

$$

TAW

213 
WGUS51 KALY 280912
FFWALY
NYC035-043-057-281630-
/O.EXT.KALY.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-130628T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
512 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS UPGRADED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING TO A FLASH FLOOD WARNING EMERGENCY...
  WESTERN FULTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LITTLE FALLS...ILION...HERKIMER...
  WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CANAJOHARIE...

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 503 AM EDT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED FROM  
  HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. LOCAL 
  FIRE OFFICIALS HAVE REPORTED SWIFT WATER RESCUES ARE UNDERWAY.     
  PLEASE SEEK HIGHER GROUND AND HELP FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT IF IMPACTED
  FROM THE FLASH FLOODING. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING ACROSS
  THE WARNED AREA WITH NUMEROUS ROADS WASHED OUT AND STREAMS AND CREEKS
  OUT OF THEIR BANKS. 

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO            
  MIDDLEVILLE...MOHAWK...ILION...HERKIMER...AND THE TOWN OF          
  FAIRFIELD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT
ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV OR TWITTER
@NWSALBANY.

&&

LAT...LON 4322 7508 4326 7516 4330 7515 4334 7509
      4346 7510 4346 7479 4334 7487 4324 7458
      4323 7451 4279 7449 4289 7486 4282 7490
      4290 7509 4285 7514 4286 7522 4289 7521
      4306 7522

$$

TAW/GJM

450 
WGUS71 KALY 281236
FFSALY

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
836 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

NYC035-043-057-281630-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-130628T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY NY-FULTON NY-HERKIMER NY-
836 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 1230 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER...WESTERN FULTON AND WESTERN 
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 823 AM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AS WELL AS TRAINED 
SPOTTERS AND THE PUBLIC REPORTED LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING 
FROM HEAVY RAIN THROUGHOUT THE WARNED AREA. LOCAL FIRE OFFICIALS 
HAVE REPORTED SWIFT WATER RESCUES ARE UNDERWAY. SIGNIFICANT FLASH 
FLOODING IS ONGOING IN THE TOWN OF FORT PLAIN WITH 50 TO 100 PEOPLE 
TRAPPED IN HOMES. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO OCCURRING IN 
THE TOWNS OF CANAJOHARIE AND ST. JOHNSVILLE WITH MULTIPLE STRUCTURES 
BEING AFFECTED. NUMEROUS ROADS ARE WASHED OUT AND IMPASSABLE MAKING 
TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. NUMEROUS STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE ALSO OUT 
OF THEIR BANKS. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION! 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
CANAJOHARIE...KAST BRIDGE...FORT PLAIN...FAIRFIELD...LITTLE 
FALLS...MIDDLEVILLE AND ST. JOHNSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT
ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV OR TWITTER
@NWSALBANY.

&&

LAT...LON 4322 7508 4326 7516 4330 7515 4334 7509
      4346 7510 4346 7479 4334 7487 4324 7458
      4323 7451 4279 7449 4289 7486 4282 7490
      4290 7509 4285 7514 4286 7522 4289 7521
      4306 7522

$$

IRL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1057 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM PENNSYLVANIA
ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.  THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS...AND CONTINUED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

AS OF 1055 PM EDT...STEADY RAIN WITH AREAS OF EMBEDDED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NOW ENCOMPASSING A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. WESTERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS MAINLY DRY AT THIS
HOUR...ALTHOUGH BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE LIFTING NORTHWARD RAPIDLY
APPROACHING LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THE STEADY RAIN SHIELD WILL MOVE IN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...AS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE AROUND 500
J/KG AS OF 10 PM. THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER IN TERMS OF
STRONG WIND/HAIL HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH IT
DOES APPEAR THEY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH...AS OPPOSED TO REMAINING
STATIONARY LIKE WHAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NY.
THERE...BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE PIVOTING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND HAVE RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING. IT APPEARS OUR AREA WILL HAVE A THREAT
FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING...BUT THE WORST MAY BE JUST TO THE WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. STILL...SOME FLASH FLOODING AND/OR MINOR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. SINCE HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM OF
THE MOHAWK...THIS BASIN WILL BE FAVORED FOR RIVER FLOODING.

AT 500 HPA...A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/MD
AND VIRGINIA...AND CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. AT
THE SURFACE...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW FOR MID JUNE /2 TO 4 STD
BELOW NORMAL/ IS LOCATED NEAR SCRANTON PA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS ADVECTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO 2.00
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA...WITH THE CENTER FORECAST TO TRACK RIGHT THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL RATES OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLASH FLOODING
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS TYPICAL URBAN...SMALL STREAM AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. /SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS
INCLUDING EXPECTED QPF VALUES/.

STEADY RAIN WILL START TO TAPER OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE RAINING FAIRLY STEADILY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION ON NORTH.

MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY...WITH READING IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT IT SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF BY
NOON. AT THIS POINT...THE CONCERN WILL BECOME FOR RIVER
FLOODING...AS ALL THE RUNOFF FROM THE OVERNIGHT RAIN REACHES THE
MAIN STEM RIVERS. MEANWHILE...SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN AS THE WHOLE UPPER
TROUGH CLOSES OFF TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY SPINS. SKIES WILL BE
FAIRLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS /MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH SOME LOW 80S IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS/.

IT WILL REMAIN WET AND UNSETTLED FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT
AS THE CLOSED SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND A
STRONG JET REMAINS OVERHEAD. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER DURING
THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. IT LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH SOME
BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE ON SAT AFTN FOR EASTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS. MIN
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH MAINLY 60S. DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS IN THOSE AREAS THAT GET SOME BREAKS OF SUN BETWEEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER REPETITIVE FORECAST IS SHAPING UP FOR THE DURATION OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THIS TIME WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES.

LATEST 12Z MODELS STILL SHOWS A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...WITH A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST
WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP
WILL PUT THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IN A GOOD POSITION OF POSITIVE
850-700 HPA SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ANOMALIES OF AROUND 2 TO 3
S.D. FLOWING RIGHT OVER THE REGION BRINGING GULF OF MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN RETURN WILL
ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO RIDE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO LARGE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND CAUSE PERSISTENT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
PERTURBATION PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALONG WITH
WIND ANOMALIES...HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF -1 TO -2 S.D. ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DIGGING TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC OF 1.5 TO 2 S.D. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST MODELS ALONG WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT...THIS PATTERN WILL
ALMOST BE STATIONARY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS. HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO
UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM PA. THIS WILL SPREAD A SHIELD OF STEADY RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF HEAVIER RAIN. THE STEADIER RAIN
SHOULD MOVE IN ACROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 02Z-03Z.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO MVFR LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF IFR DEVELOPING WITHIN ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL. WILL MENTION TEMPO GROUPS BETWEEN EITHER 03Z-06Z FOR
OCCASIONAL IFR FOR KPOU/KALB...AND 04Z-06Z FOR KPSF/KGFL.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY BETWEEN IFR/MVFR FOR THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS RAINFALL CONTINUES. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
TO SHOWERS BY 12Z...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN
POSSIBLY VFR IF ENOUGH DRYING OCCURS BY 16Z-18Z FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 3 TO 6 KT TONIGHT...
BECOMING SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-TUE...VFR/MVFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND
OR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH IFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WITH PWATS VALUES EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2 STD
ABOVE NORMAL...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY. A RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITHIN A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD. INITIALLY...THERE WILL
BE A CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO FLOODING FOR THE
MAIN STEMS RIVERS FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS FORECASTED FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES...ALTHOUGH
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. ISOLATED POINT RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 5
INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS AND THE ERN DACKS.

THE AREA MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE
THE MOHAWK RIVER BASIN BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC HYDROGRAPHS.  THIS
AREA HAS SEEN A LOT OF RAIN LATELY...AND SOILS ARE RATHER SATURATED.
THE NERFC HAS ALREADY FORECASTED SEVERAL POINTS TO RISE ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE HSA. HOWEVER...THE CATSKILL BASINS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS WELL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-281100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
925 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

NYZ059-060-280000-
EASTERN GREENE NY-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-
718 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IN

  GREENE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  COLUMBIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 714 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR COXSACKIE...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTH OF HUDSON...AND MOVING NORTH
AT 5 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
KINDERHOOK BY 725 PM EDT
NEW BALTIMORE BY 755 PM EDT

THIS STORM IS MOVING SLOWLY...SO IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL. ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME. THIS WILL LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

LAT...LON 4245 7385 4247 7367 4233 7370 4232 7385
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 180DEG 6KT 4239 7379

JPV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
804 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     FLOOD            STUYVESANT              42.39N  73.78W
06/27/2013                   COLUMBIA           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            STATE RT. 9J IS CLOSED BETWEEN SHARPTOWN ROAD AND
            RIVERVIEW ST. DUE TO WATER ON ROADWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1300269

LFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
938 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

NYZ038-039-041-042-050-082-083-280230-
NORTHERN WARREN NY-SOUTHEAST WARREN NY-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-
NORTHERN FULTON NY-SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-
NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
938 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF

  WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  FULTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 935 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.

THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING SLOWLY...SO THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THIS WILL LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS
AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

LAT...LON 4309 7519 4320 7509 4321 7410 4372 7410
      4375 7350 4352 7366 4330 7363 4302 7400
      4300 7440 4306 7476 4290 7479 4289 7507
      4290 7510 4289 7511 4288 7521 4294 7522
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 188DEG 19KT 4310 7428

JPV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1150 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ058>061-063>066-280430-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-EASTERN GREENE NY-WESTERN GREENE NY-
WESTERN ULSTER NY-EASTERN ULSTER NY-WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-
EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-
1150 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
  BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
  GREENE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  ULSTER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  DUTCHESS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  COLUMBIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 1145 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND
50 MPH...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LAKE KATRINE...OR ABOUT OVER SAUGERTIES...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LIVINGSTON BY 1155 PM EDT
CLAVERACK BY MIDNIGHT EDT
PHILMONT BY 1205 AM EDT
AUSTERLITZ BY 1210 AM EDT
NEW LEBANON AND LENOX BY 1220 AM EDT
PITTSFIELD AND HANCOCK BY 1225 AM EDT

RAINFALL RATES UP TO THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4182 7406 4233 7438 4244 7400 4251 7336
      4265 7330 4273 7302 4241 7299 4238 7302
      4237 7306 4233 7306 4231 7299 4225 7299
      4214 7307 4209 7307 4204 7305 4204 7300
      4197 7302 4197 7298 4180 7298 4178 7301
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 226DEG 36KT 4204 7389

TAW