Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...THEN STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS HAS TRIGGERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A LEADING CLUSTER
PROPAGATING FROM NORTHERN VA TOWARD MD. UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
2500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...AND THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
LONG-LIVED ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
LOCALIZED MICROBURSTS IN THE PRESENCE OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING AND STEADILY WEAKEN LATER ON AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ANY
REMAINING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVING
WAY TO A PARTLY CLOUDY WARM AND HUMID NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE CONUS THURSDAY GENERATING
TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE DIGGING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
OFFSHORE. A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
STALLING NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE RESULT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. LIKELY POPS OVER
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT
TO THE COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING. A SSW WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY
(20-25 MPH) THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SPC HAS
REINTRODUCED SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SE VA AND NE NC. THE FLOW WITHIN THE 700-500MB LAYER INCREASES TO
AROUND 25-30KT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE WITHING THE AMBIENT AIRMASS.
THIS COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. AGAIN...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

A SECONDARY WAVE SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH 50-60% POPS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE FOCUS
SHIFTS MAINLY TOWARD THE COAST SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SHOULD SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD FROM THE
LOW 90S THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS
AND CLOUD COVER/OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEWPOINTS WILL
LINGER IN THE LOW 70S MAINTAINING A HUMID AIRMASS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL PRODUCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ENERGY
OVERRUNNING A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP A
STRONG...HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY...DEVELOPING A
STRONG (+2 TO +3 STD DEV) CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
STRONG BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
RETROGRADE WWD THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO
OPEN AND LIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUES-WEDS. THE RESULT WILL BE
DEEP SWLY FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. PRECIP WATERS WILL
REACH UPWARDS OF +1 STD DEV. MEANWHILE...SFC FRONT WILL RETROGRADE
WWD INTO CNTRL VA SUNDAY...REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH ALL THAT SAID...EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH WEDS AS WAVES LIFT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 850-700MB MOISTURE FLUX (+2-3 STD DEV) WILL
EXIST ALONG THE COAST SUN-TUES...WHICH COULD LEAD TO PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EACH AFTERNOON FOR CONVECTION. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR WEST BERMUDA HIGH IS ABLE TO BUILD...IF AT
ALL...INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD SHIFT THE HEAVIEST RAIN
POTENTIAL FARTHER INLAND.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL PREVENT AFTERNOON TEMPS FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...SO HAVE TRENDED FORECAST BELOW
LATEST GUIDANCE. THE RESULT WILL BE TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S
(SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL). REGARDLESS...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL
PRODUCE A WARM/HUMID AIRMASS. MILD OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS...WITH
ATTENDANT SHORT-LIVED MVFR/PSBL IFR. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING TSTM EVOLUTION THROUGH 06Z...BUT GENERALLY
AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC. KSBY/KPHF ALSO APPEAR TO
HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN THE 23Z-01Z TIME FRAME...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE DIRECTLY INTO TAF.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH UPR TROF
DVLPG WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. VFR WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE
TIME...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHWRS/TSTMS
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE WATERS TODAY. S/SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS AOB 3 FT AND WAVES AOB 2
FT. A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE WATER TEMPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY
IN THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...STILL EXPECT A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION
TO PREVENT HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS HAVE
CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT TONIGHT OVER THE BAY AND 20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 20 KT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THURS
MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD SCA CONDS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURS NIGHT/FRI BEFORE
STALLING ALONG THE COAST FRI MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE LATE THURS THROUGH FRI MORNING. SEAS ALSO EXPECTED TO
REACH UP TO 6 FT 20 NM OUT THURS NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS IT REMAINS THIRD PERIOD AND WINDS ARE
MARGINAL. THEREAFTER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE
STALLED FRONT RETROGRADES OVER CNTRL VA. EXPECT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB SCA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
RICHMOND ASOS WILL BE CHECKED BY TECHNICIANS LATER IN THE WEEK TO
ADDRESS UNREPRESENTATIVE AFTN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM
EQUIPMENT...AKQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-060>094-099-100-271930-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
325 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 373 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ095>098-271930-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-
325 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ633-634-638-654-656-658-271930-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
JAMES RIVER FROM THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO THE HAMPTON ROADS BRIDGE-
TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
325 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE
EASTERN JAMES RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>632-635>637-650-652-271930-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER FROM URBANNA TO WINDMILL POINT-YORK RIVER-
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
325 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 373 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER...THE EASTERN RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER
AND THE EASTERN YORK RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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