Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR...SHORTWAVE HAS REACHED EXTREME WRN VA. AT
THE SFC...COLD FRONT HAS MADE VERY LITTLE SRN PUSH FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALIGNED FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WAVE ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OBSERVED ON RADAR/OBS LOCATED OVER CNTRL VA HAS HELPED
ENHANCE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING AS WAVES ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION.
THE MOST PROMINENT WAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN TN AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. SFC WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS NRN NC/SRN VA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT EWD ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS
OCCURS...BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 70S WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (1000-1200
J/KG CAPE) ACROSS ERN VA INTO NERN NC. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND LOW LEVEL WSWLY FLOW OF 30-40 KT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. OVER CNTRL
VA...WEAK LAPSE RATES DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE (PRECIP WATERS ~2
INCHES) WILL PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. WEAK TO
MARGINAL SHEAR WILL INHIBIT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIP WATER REMAIN
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NWRN VA
LATE TONIGHT...HELPING PUSH THE FRONT OFFSHORE. BEST MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE...BUT REMNANT MOISTURE AND SUBTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MILD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROUGH AXIS WILL LOCATE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDS...AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS ALONG THE COAST FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AS
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND REMNANT MOISTURE REMAIN. CONFLUENCE
ALOFT WILL ALLOW COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...EXTENDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. COMBINATION OF
NWLY FLOW...LOWER HEIGHTS AND DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S WEDS AFTERNOON.
REMNANT MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE FOR
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. N/NELY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. ONSHORE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE (THANKS TO OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
UPPER 60S) AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

BAGGY MID LEVEL TROUGH AND NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRI. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THURS-FRI. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION WILL STALL OFF THE SE
COAST...WITH BEST MOISTURE REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO STAY W OF THE FA. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS NWLY FLOW AND ONSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE (MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). COOL
MORNING TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 60S. SOME INLAND LOCALES (ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT)
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING
MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL
PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S SATURDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND
UPWARD FROM AROUND 65 EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT
CIGS AND VIS TO LOWER BRIEFLY INTO MVFR (AND POSSIBLY IFR)
CONDITIONS UNDER STRONGER STORM CORES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS WELL.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
WILL START TO DRY OUT AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALIGNED SW-NE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT.
THE WESTERNMOST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER W-CENTRAL NC WILL LIFT ENE
OVERNIGHT AND PULL OFF THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHALLOW NORTHERLY CAA SURGE SHOULD FOLLOW AS THE LOW PULLS OFF THE
COAST. THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO UNDER-ESTIMATE THESE TYPE
OF SURGES...SO A SHORT-DURATION LOW-END SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES/SOUND FROM 08-14Z (4-10AM). AS FOR THE OCEAN...THE
WIND WILL PROGRESSIVELY BECOME NE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF CAPE COD. AT THIS TIME THE STRENGTH OF THE
FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILDS SEAS TO 5FT...SO
NO SCA AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH LINGERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY
10-15KT ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN 3-4FT SEAS. THE HIGH
SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND
SHIFTING TO S AND REMAINING AOB 15KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...AJZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

MDZ021>025-NCZ012-VAZ048-049-060>094-099-100-192015-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-
HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-
CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-
RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
409 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING EARLY TONIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ALSO...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STRONGER
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ635>637-650-652-654-656-658-192015-
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER FROM URBANNA TO WINDMILL POINT-YORK RIVER-
JAMES RIVER FROM JAMESTOWN TO THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
409 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...THE EASTERN JAMES RIVER...THE EASTERN RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER
AND THE EASTERN YORK RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ALSO...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STRONGER
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>634-638-192015-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
JAMES RIVER FROM THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO THE HAMPTON ROADS BRIDGE-
TUNNEL-
409 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE EASTERN
JAMES RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ALSO...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STRONGER
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ013>017-030>032-102-VAZ095>098-192015-
HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-BERTIE-CHOWAN-
PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-
CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-
409 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ALSO...STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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