Storm Warning 33, NWS Juneau, AK

212 
FZAK51 PAJK 241936 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1036 AM AKST TUE DEC 24 2013

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-250100-
1036 AM AKST TUE DEC 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH TUE AS A
GALE FORCE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE TUE EVENING. 

$$

PKZ011-250100-
GLACIER BAY-
1036 AM AKST TUE DEC 24 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE LATE MORNING. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING
TO 5 FT IN THE LATE MORNING. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-250100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1036 AM AKST TUE DEC 24 2013

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING
VARIABLE 10 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT OR LESS LATE. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IN
THE MORNING. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...N 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-250100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1036 AM AKST TUE DEC 24 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N IN THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING
TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING SE
20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND BECOMING 30 KT IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING
LATE. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING 
TO 5 FT LATE.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-250100-
ICY STRAIT-
1036 AM AKST TUE DEC 24 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-250100-
CROSS SOUND-
1036 AM AKST TUE DEC 24 2013

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-250100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1036 AM AKST TUE DEC 24 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-250100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1036 AM AKST TUE DEC 24 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-250100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1036 AM AKST TUE DEC 24 2013

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-250100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1036 AM AKST TUE DEC 24 2013

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-250100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1036 AM AKST TUE DEC 24 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-250100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1036 AM AKST TUE DEC 24 2013

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT LATE. NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
314 PM AKST MON DEC 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS PACKAGE WAS MOVING THE WARM
FRONTAL FEATURE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG ALONG WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS A FEW MILES UP STEPHENS PASSAGE AND THE PRECIPITATION FIELD
NORTH BY ONE ZONE...FOR THE AFTERNOON OF THE 24TH...CHANCE OF
SNOW/RAIN IN JUNEAU/GUSTAVUS/HOONAH. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
HAINES/YAKUTAT. AND MAINLY RAIN LIKELY FOR
SITKA/PETERSBURG/KAKE/WRANGELL. DOWN SOUTH, FEELING MORE
CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE THERE.

 OVERALL, FORECAST PANNED OUT FAIRLY WELL...PERHAPS REALITY WAS
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FORECAST...AND THE PEAKS GREATER THAN THE
MAXES FORECAST FOR WINDS. CROSS SOUND HAS PEAKED AT 45 TODAY.
NORTHERN LYNN DEFINITELY MADE GALE. AND SKAGWAY CAME UP AS WE
KNEW IT WOULD. SOME SURPRISES...HAINES WINDS CAME UP EVEN AT THE
AIRPORT TO GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH. REPORTS FROM MUD BAY
INDICATED 15 TO 30 THIS AFTERNOON...NOT CLEAR IF THIS REFLECTED
GUSTS. WHATEVER THE CASE, WINDS SHOULD BE ON THEIR WAY DOWN.
WHITEHORSE WINDS HAVE STARTED GUSTING FROM THE NORTH AND THUS THE
NEGATIVE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AND
FLIP TO POSITIVE LATE IN THE NIGHT. SKAGWAY'S WINDS SHOULD GO
LIGHT, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT WITH HOW STRONG THE NORTH
WINDS WILL BE TOMORROW. OFTEN AS COLDER AIR SETTLES DOWN THE PASS
INTO THE THE TOWN, AN INVERSION SETS UP ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
OVERSHOOT TOWN. STUCK WITH 5 TO 15 FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT. HAINES
SHOULD FLIP TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN DRAINING
DOWN THE CHILKAT VALLEY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY TOMORROW FOR MUCH OF THE CANAL AREA.
GRADIENTS SUGGEST THAT WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGER IN THE JUNEAU
AREA, BUT PERHAPS SINCE THE GRADIENT SUPPORTS MORE OF A SOUTHWEST
FLOW, THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH BLOCKAGE FROM DOUGLAS. DID GO WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR CROSS SOUND THIS EVENING.

 SHOWERS OVER HYDER WILL LIKELY GO BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
SOMETIME OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF AN INCH. JUNEAU PROFILER
ANALYSIS CONFIRMS THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW, SO
NOT REALLY WORRIED ABOUT HIGHER AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON HYDER. GRADIENTS GO
LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LESS MIXING AND SOME COOLING PERHAPS. WHILE
HIGHS RIGHT NOW 37...FEEL THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT COOLER
UP PORTLAND CANAL AFTER SECOND THOUGHT, AND WHILE HAVE A
RAIN-SNOW MIX, THIS COULD GO ALL SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER QUICK INCH OR EVEN TWO OR THREE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF LESS RAIN THAN THOUGHT MIXING IN.

 OVERALL PACKAGE INHERITED WAS PRETTY GOOD. MADE ONLY
INSIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR MONDAY NIGHT, AND CONCENTRATED ON
TUESDAY FOR MOVING THE SYSTEM FORWARD A TAD UP INTO THE
PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE GOOD TO AVERAGE.

.LONG RANGE...STILL SOME ISSUES AS FAR AS HOW FAR SOUTH COLD AIR
WILL GET AND HOW FAST PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT.
MODELS WERE VERY SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE PRECIP COMING IN. THE
NAM...WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD AIR COMING
SOUTH...HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER. OTHER MODELS PRETTY MUCH
STAYED THE SAME ON THE COLD AIR. ENDED UP MAKING LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE POPS AND WINDS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. DID TWEAK TEMPS...AND
ENDED UP DOING TWEAKS EVERY 6 HRS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED TO HANDLE
THE NON-DIURNAL TREND. CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO
UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE PAHN AND PAGY
AREAS FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. LEFT THE QPF GRIDS AS IS...BUT DID
MAKE TWEAKS TO SNOWFALL DUE TO THE TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. MAY NEED
WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR PAJN/PAGS AREAS BEFORE IT WOULD CHANGE TO
RAIN LATER TUE NIGHT. IF THE COLDER AIR CAN GET FURTHER S LIKE THE
NAM...THE WARM UP WOULD BE DELAYED SOME AND COULD LEAD TO HIGHER
SNOWFALL IN THE PAJN-PAEL CORRIDOR.

AFTER WED...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS MADE WERE TO THE DAY 6 PERIOD ON OUT
TO USE LATEST WPC GRIDS AND EXTEND OUT TO DAY 8. EVEN WPC HAD
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR DAYS 4 AND 5...THUS THE DECISION TO
LEAVE THEM AS IS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A MILD PATTERN IN GENERAL WITH
SWLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031>034-036-041>043-
     051>053.

&&

JWA/RWT