Storm Warning 24, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
352 PM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A WARM SOUTH WIND TO THE REGION. MOST LAND
AREAS HAVE SEEN WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH WHILE A FEW SUCH AS YAKUTAT
HAVE REACHED AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. STRONG WIND HEADLINES ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR MOST PLACES AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS...INCLUDING KETCHIKAN...THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND
CLARENCE STRAIT TONIGHT. OTHER INSIDE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
GALE FORCE WINDS OUT OF THE S-SE.

HEAVY RAIN IS THE NAME OF THE GAME TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE ONE THAT CAUSES A WIND SHIFT FROM S-SE TO W-SW.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE YAKUTAT AREA IN THE MORNING AND
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY STOP WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE COLD AIR MOVING
OVER THE WARM WATER WILL CREATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT THERE TO BE
RAIN CHANGING TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURE
GRADUALLY FALLS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATION WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS. GREATEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AT
WHITE PASS WITH A FEW INCHES TONIGHT AND ANOTHER 1-3 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE ABOUT A HALF INCH IN THE OTHER NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JUNEAU TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

MOST UPDATES TODAY WERE MADE WITH THE NAM12 AND ECMWF AS THEY
INITIALIZED THE PRESSURE FIELD THE BEST. OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE
FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND AS THE RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS WARRANTED
(FREEZING RAIN/INCREASING TEMPERATURES). FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
CHANGED BACK TO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...THINGS FINALLY CALMING DOWN IN THE LONG TERM AFTER AN
EXCITING FEW DAYS. THERE IS A GENERAL COOL OF THE TEMPERATURES TO A
MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE OF DAY. THERE IS SMALL BUBBLE OF
HIGHER PRESSURE THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...MEANWHILE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC ANOTHER WAVE
ON THE OLD FRONTAL BAND THAT IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA
FRIDAY WILL TRAVEL NORTH AND SPREAD RAIN INTO IT LOOKS JUST LIKE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THIS LOW/FRONTAL FEATURE IS
LOOKING TO TIGHTEN UP THE NORTH/NORTHEAST GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
THE EARLY PERIODS IS A LITTLE BETTER THAN AVERAGE. LATER TIMES
STEPS ARE HAVING A LITTLE MORE TROUBLE AS MODELS START TO
DISAGREE WITH EACH OTHER HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK AND WILL BE HAVING
TO RELAY ON THE ENSEMBLES FOR THE LATER PERIODS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ017-025-026.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ022-023.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-052-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011.

&&

FERRIN/BEZENEK