Alert archive / Alaska / Storm Warnings in 2013
Storm Warning 18, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this storm warning at Oct 8, 2013, 4:00 PM AKDT. It was in force for 12 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 8, 2013, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 9, 2013, 4:00 AM AKDT
- In force
- 12 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
147 FZAK51 PAJK 082349 CWFAJK COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ098-091400- 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TUE NIGHT THEN EXIT TO THE EAST WED AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN GALE FORCE. A SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. $$ PKZ011-091400- GLACIER BAY- 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING THEN DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ012-091400- NORTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING THEN DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT LATE. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. .THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ013-091400- SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING THEN DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ021-091400- ICY STRAIT- 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ022-091400- CROSS SOUND- 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. SW SWELL. RAIN. .WED...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. .THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. RAIN. .FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ031-091400- STEPHENS PASSAGE- 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. .THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ032-091400- NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ033-091400- SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SW LATE. SEAS 7 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN. .WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SW SWELL. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ034-091400- FREDERICK SOUND- 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SW LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. .THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ035-091400- SUMNER STRAIT- 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SW LATE. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES WITH SW SWELL. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ036-091400- CLARENCE STRAIT- 400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT LATE. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS LATE. .THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$
3 follow-up statements
126 FZAK51 PAJK 090506 AAA CWFAJK COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 906 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ098-091400- 906 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TUE NIGHT THEN EXIT TO THE EAST WED AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN GALE FORCE. A SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. $$ PKZ011-091400- GLACIER BAY- 906 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING THEN DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ012-091400- NORTHERN LYNN CANAL- 906 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING THEN DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT LATE. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. .THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ013-091400- SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL- 906 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING THEN DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ021-091400- ICY STRAIT- 906 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ022-091400- CROSS SOUND- 906 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. .WED...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. .THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. RAIN. .FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ031-091400- STEPHENS PASSAGE- 906 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. .THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ032-091400- NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 906 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ033-091400- SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 906 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SW LATE. SEAS 7 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN. .WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SW SWELL. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ034-091400- FREDERICK SOUND- 906 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SW LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. .THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ035-091400- SUMNER STRAIT- 906 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SW LATE. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES WITH SW SWELL. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ036-091400- CLARENCE STRAIT- 906 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT LATE. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS LATE. .THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$
830 FZAK51 PAJK 090633 AAB CWFAJK COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 1033 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ098-091400- 1033 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TUE NIGHT THEN EXIT TO THE EAST WED AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND REMAIN GALE FORCE. A SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. $$ PKZ011-091400- GLACIER BAY- 1033 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING THEN DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ012-091400- NORTHERN LYNN CANAL- 1033 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 UPDATED ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. .THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ013-091400- SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL- 1033 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ021-091400- ICY STRAIT- 1033 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ022-091400- CROSS SOUND- 1033 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. .WED...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. .THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. RAIN. .FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ031-091400- STEPHENS PASSAGE- 1033 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. .THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ032-091400- NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 1033 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ033-091400- SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 1033 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SW LATE. SEAS 7 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN. .WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SW SWELL. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ034-091400- FREDERICK SOUND- 1033 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT SHIFTING TO THE SW LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. .THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ035-091400- SUMNER STRAIT- 1033 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT SHIFTING TO THE SW LATE. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES WITH SW SWELL. SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ036-091400- CLARENCE STRAIT- 1033 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT LATE. RAIN. .WED...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS LATE. .THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$
872 FZAK51 PAJK 091139 CWFAJK COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 9 2013 SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ098-100100- 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WED AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THU MORNING. A SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. $$ PKZ011-100100- GLACIER BAY- 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 9 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ012-100100- NORTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 9 2013 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS. .TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. .THU...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ013-100100- SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 9 2013 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS. .TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .THU...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ021-100100- ICY STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 9 2013 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS. .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ022-100100- CROSS SOUND- 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 9 2013 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. .THU...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ031-100100- STEPHENS PASSAGE- 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 9 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. .THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ032-100100- NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 9 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ033-100100- SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 9 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. HIGHER GUSTS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS. .TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. HIGHER GUSTS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ034-100100- FREDERICK SOUND- 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 9 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. .THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ035-100100- SUMNER STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 9 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. .TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. .THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ036-100100- CLARENCE STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT WED OCT 9 2013 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN PORTION...GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS. .TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SHOWERS. .THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 8, 3:40 PM AKDT, 20 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 8, 3:40 PM AKDT, 20 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
340 PM AKDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING IN YAKUTAT ALL
DAY AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 KT HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT BERING
GLACIER WITH MUCH HIGHER VALUES FURTHER WEST. THE HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING
AND OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN INSIDE WATERS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO GALE FORCE TODAY
AND EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 50 KT STORM FORCE WINDS IN NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL THIS EVENING.
THIS FRONT IS BRINGING IN WARMER AIR ALOFT FROM THE TROPICS...SO
DO NOT EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE TO FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT THE TEMPERATURE WILL FALL OR RATHER...NOT RISE MUCH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE HAVE DECREASED MAX TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE CAA AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH SOLAR HEATING UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. THE CAA WILL CAUSE INSTABILITY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SHOWERS. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OVER THE GULF LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG
WEST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION ABOUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
RIVERS.
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FRONT. MOST CHANGES WERE MADE FOR LOCAL
EFFECTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.
.HYDROLOGY...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH TO 2 INCHES
THROUGH MID DAY TOMORROW WILL CAUSE LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS TO
HAVE SHARP RISES. HOWEVER, WITH WATER LEVELS CURRENTLY LOW...DUE
TO THE LOWER FREEZING LEVELS...AND WITH THE FRONT LOOKING TO MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY RIVER TO REACH BANKFULL. HOWEVER
LEVELS SHOULD BE MONITORED IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS
KEEPING HEAVY RAIN OVER AN AREA FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH THU IS NOT LOOKING TOO BAD AS WE
ARE LEFT WITH REMAINING SHOWERS IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE SW SWELL THAT WILL BUILD IN THE GULF DUE
TO THE DOMINATE SW FLOW. GIVEN THE LONG FETCH SWELL HEIGHTS WILL
REACH 11 TO 13 FT OUT OF THE SW ON WED NIGHT AND CONSEQUENTLY
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH 20 FT AT THE SAME TIME. SWELL AND WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH FRI.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK COMES WITH LOADS OF
UNCERTAINTY ATTACHED TO IT AS THE FORECAST MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
DETERMINING HOW IT WILL DEVELOP. SOME MODEL RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT
HAD DEVELOPED A 990 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF ON THU NIGHT
AND SENDING IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DUE TO A STRONG JET
STREAK AND SHARPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER HEAD. WHILE OTHERS
DIDN'T EVEN HAVE THE FEATURE OR HAD IT WEAKER, SLOWER AND FARTHER
SOUTH. SINCE THEN, MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM THE
STRONGER OF THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE SURFACE LOW. LATEST RUNS OF THE
ECMWF AND THE GEM (BOTH OF WHICH, SHOWED THE STRONGER LOW IN
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS) NOW SHOW A WEAKER (AROUND 1006 MB) AND
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT SOME OF THE OTHER
MODELS (UKMET, AND SREF) WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY. WITH NO CURRENT
MODEL RUNS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF THE STRONGER LOW
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, I HAVE DECIDED TO BREAK AWAY
FROM CONSISTENCY AND GO TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GEM/SREF
FOR A WEAKER, SLOWER, AND FARTHER SOUTH TRACK TO THE LOW ON FRI
AND FRI NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN A LIGHTER WIND AND SOMEWHAT LOWER
PRECIP FORECAST FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT IN THE SE GULF AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH
SOME RAIN FROM A WEAK FRONT THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
FARTHER SOUTH.
ONCE WE GET CLEAR OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM, A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
TO THE AREA FOR SAT AND SUN. EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING WET AGAIN
AS ANOTHER FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF. MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS RIDGE AND FRONT BUT THEN CHOKE AGAIN
ON THE WAVES THAT FOLLOW THE FRONT MID NEXT WEEK. ALL IN ALL I
DON'T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST FROM
FRI ONWARD GIVEN THAT THE MODELS ARE JUMPING BETWEEN SEVERAL
SOLUTIONS AT THE MOMENT. DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE WPC DATA FOR
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND FOR ITS USE OF ENSEMBLE DATA TO EVEN OUT
THE DIFFERENCES.
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR AKZ026-027.
STRONG WIND FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR AKZ020-021-024-025.
STRONG WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ018-022-023.
STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR AKZ028.
STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR AKZ019.
STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051-052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ053.
&&
FERRIN/EALThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 4:00 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 18 hr | |
| Oct 9, 4:00 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Oct 9, 4:00 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 48 hr | |
| Oct 9, 4:00 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 24 hr | |
| Oct 9, 9:58 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 9 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.