Small Craft Advisory 913, NWS Juneau, AK

901 
FZAK51 PAJK 301907 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1004 AM AKST MON DEC 30 2013

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-311315-
1004 AM AKST MON DEC 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
MON. A LOW ALONG THE FRONT OFF BARANOF ISLAND EARLY MONDAY WILL
WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES NORTH THROUGH MON. 

$$

PKZ011-311315-
GLACIER BAY-
1004 AM AKST MON DEC 30 2013

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-311315-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1004 AM AKST MON DEC 30 2013

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-311315-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1004 AM AKST MON DEC 30 2013

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-311315-
ICY STRAIT-
1004 AM AKST MON DEC 30 2013

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.



$$

PKZ022-311315-
CROSS SOUND-
1004 AM AKST MON DEC 30 2013

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SW SWELL
LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-311315-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1004 AM AKST MON DEC 30 2013

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. SNOW LATE.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-311315-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1004 AM AKST MON DEC 30 2013

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-311315-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1004 AM AKST MON DEC 30 2013

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-311315-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1004 AM AKST MON DEC 30 2013

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-311315-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1004 AM AKST MON DEC 30 2013

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-311315-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1004 AM AKST MON DEC 30 2013

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
4 PM AKST SUN DEC 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS TO SE ALASKA. THIS FRONT IS ONLY
CAUSING CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION
CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AT THE FAR REACHES OF THE
RADAR. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
CAUSE A TRIPLE POINT LOW TO FORM A THE SURFACE. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT AND DEEPEN OFF BARANOF ISLAND LATE
TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING ON OUR DOOR STEP EXPECT WINDS TO
COME UP QUICKLY. HAVE EAST WINDS TO GALE FORCE SOUTH OF DOUGLAS
ISLAND AND THROUGH CROSS SOUND. ALSO HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS IN
CLARENCE STRAIT NEAR LINCOLN ROCK. WITH THE DEEPENING LOW TO THE
SOUTH HAVE CONTINUED THE STRONG NORTH WINDS THROUGH SKAGWAY
THROUGH MONDAY AND INCREASE WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL TO 45
KT...STRONGEST NORTH OF ELDRED ROCK.

THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL AGAIN BE ALONG ICY STRAIT AND JUNEAU.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET SNOW FOR THOSE AREAS AND ALL SNOW FOR
AREAS NORTH. HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW IN
GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU WHERE 3-8 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WET SNOW WILL COMPACT QUICKLY AND BE SLUSHY.
LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS REASON TO 3-5:1 RATIO...SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. AN ADVISORY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR
HAINES...WHICH WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE SNOW TO HAVE TYPICAL
RATIOS AND EXPECT 4-9 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
ICY STRAIT RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT TYPE AND BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE TONIGHT.

MODELS HAVE DIFFERED ON HOW FAR NORTH/HOW DEEP TO MAKE THE LOW
OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING. HAVE GONE WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION OF ECMWF/GFS/GEM WITH
AN EMPHASIS ON THE 12Z ECMWF. THE NAM HAS BEEN AN OUTLIER AND IS
SLOWER MOVING THE LOW NORTH WHICH WOULD DELAY THE ONSET
PRECIPITATION AND LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...HAD A GREAT PLAN YESTERDAY WHICH FELL TO PIECES WITH
29/12Z MODEL RUNS NOW SENDING A SERIES OF STRONGER SHORT WAVES
THROUGH THE OVERALL ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT. THIS MEANS SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS FOR TUE THROUGH FRI IN TODAYS FORECASTS. FIRST THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ONSHORE MONDAY NITE FOR A MOISTURE
SOURCE WHICH GETS SHUT OFF TUE DUE TO A RAPIDLY MOVING UPR RIDGE
FROM THE WEST. NEXT ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE
HITS TUE NITE AND WED. THE NEXT UPR RIDGE ARRIVES THU EVENING. SO
THE BIG PICTURE IS TRANSIENT SYSTEMS AND ONE HAS TO REMAIN HOPEFUL
THAT WE HAVE DOWN THE TIMING AS PER THE FORECASTS BEING ISSUED.
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IN SUCH A PATTERN CAN NEVER BE HIGH BUT
METHINKS MODERATE IN DESCRIBING SOME BREAKS. USED A BLEND OF 12/29
AK-GFS-40 AND 12/29 ECMWF. WPC PRES PROGS AND UPR LEVEL FLOW WERE
USED DAYS 4 THOUGH 7.

NOTES ON SOME DETAILS: 1) KEEPING THE SNOW GOING NORTHERN SECTIONS
MONDAY NITE. 2) HAD TO INCLUDE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS TUE NITE DUE
TO THE FRONT COMING UP TO THE COAST LOOKING STRONG IN THE MODELS.
3) THE BREAKS INDICATED LOOK LIKE REAL BREAKS SO IF OCCURRING AT
NIGHT TEMPS MAY BE COLDER IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. 4) MOST OF THE
SNOW WILL BE WET WET GLOP. THIS MEANS ACCUMULATION WILL COMPACT
RAPIDLY AT LOW ELEVATIONS LIKE THE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS.
&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MON
         AKZ020-025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 3 AM TO 6 PM MON AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH MON AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ011-021-032>035-041>043-051>053.

FERRIN/JC