Small Craft Advisory 849, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
403 PM AKST SAT DEC 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...THE QUICK MOVING FAIRLY DEEP LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
AND INLAND JUST EAST OF YAKUTAT TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH
ALOFT WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT USHERING IN A
CHANGE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FROM 1 C AT 850 TO -4 TO 10C
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME MIXED OR CHANGE TO SNOW
BY SUNDAY.

 THE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAVE CAUSED
OVERFLOW WATER FROM DAMS IN THE KETCHIKAN REGION...THIS HAD
PROMPTED A FLOOD WARNING FOR KETCHIKAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE RAINS TO TAPER OFF AND AND FLOODING ISSUES TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

 THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ENDED
EARLIER TODAY AS SNOWFALL THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER EXPECTING A BURST OF WINDS FOR 3 TO 6 HOURS BEHIND THE
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IT INCREASE IN THAT REGION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. LYNN CANAL TO RISE TO STORM FORCE I THINK
AND HAVE UPGRADED THE WIND WATCH FOR SKAGWAY TO WARNING FOR 60 TO
65 MPH.

 WAS REFERENCING THE NAM AND GFS FOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...LONG RANGE PERIOD IS LOOKING QUIETER THEN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING LATELY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS RATHER TAME
AS WE HAVE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF EARLY THIS WEEK
THEN IT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO A BROAD RIDGE BY THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE WE ARE GENERALLY STARTING OUT WITH SHOWERS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH MON NIGHT AS A REMNANT LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO SEND W TO SW WINDS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
MOST PLACES WILL SEE THE SHOWERS AS SNOW AS SOME COOLER AIR
CONTINUES TO BE PULLED AROUND THE GULF LOW, MODERATED BY THE WARM
GULF WATERS, AND SENT INTO THE PANHANDLE. EXPECTED SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT AS THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS FROM HEAVIER SHOWERS.

 THE FIRST TRICKY PART COMES FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS A WEAK
LOW MOVES BY JUST SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE. THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GET HIT BY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD. HOW MUCH THAT AREA GETS DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL YOU
BELIEVE AS THE EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE THE NORTHERN EDGE JUST A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THEN THE NCEP MODELS WHICH HARDLY HAVE ANY PRECIP IN
THE PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE DEALING
WITH ANOTHER COLD STRONG HIGH BUILDING INTO THE YUKON. DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE LYNN CANAL AREA AS ANOTHER
HIGH NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP WITH SOME COLD AIR
LEAKING OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. LYNN CANAL MAY SEE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH POSSIBLE STRONG WIND FOR THE HAINES AND
SKAGWAY AREA ON TUE.

FOR MID WEEK AND BEYOND. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MID WEEK AS THE
YUKON HIGH TAKES OVER WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS. IT
DOES NOT LAST LONG AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS RATHER FLAT ALLOWING THE
NEXT STRONG FRONT TO HIT THE PANHANDLE ON THURS. TIMING FROM THE
MODELS IS NOT VERY AGREEABLE AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
FASTER THEN THE GFS IN BRINGING IN THE PRECIP. DECIDED ON STICKING
WITH THE WPC AS IT LOOKED LIKE A REASONABLE MIDDLE GROUND FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ020.
         AREAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ019.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-031>033-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-034-035-053.

&&

BEZENEK/EAL