High Wind Warning 2, NWS Juneau, AK

470 
WWAK77 PAJK 190518
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
918 PM AKDT WED SEP 18 2013

AKZ027-028-191300-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0002.130919T1500Z-130920T2100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
918 PM AKDT WED SEP 18 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM
AKDT FRIDAY...

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG 
  FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY 
  LATE THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND 
  FRIDAY. HIGH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY 
  AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. 

* WINDS...SE WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 70 MPH.

* IMPACTS...BRANCHES WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN OFF TREES AND DOWN
  POWER LINES. SOME TREES MAY FALL. MUD SLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  IN AREAS WITH STEEP TOPOGRAPHY THAT EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE
ANY LOOSE OBJECTS TO PREVENT THEM FROM BEING BLOWN AROUND AND
GUARD AGAINST BEING HIT BY FLYING DEBRIS. HIGH WINDS MAY ALSO
MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKDT THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$
JBT

404 
WWAK77 PAJK 191234
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
434 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

AKZ027-028-192000-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0002.130919T1500Z-130920T2100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
434 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT FRIDAY...

* TIMING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS A
  STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
  EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
  NIGHT. THE HIGH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
  FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS. 

* WINDS...SE WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 70 MPH.

* IMPACTS...BRANCHES WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN OFF TREES AND DOWN 
  POWER LINES. SOME TREES MAY FALL. MUD SLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE 
  IN AREAS WITH STEEP TOPOGRAPHY THAT EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE
ANY LOOSE OBJECTS TO PREVENT THEM FROM BEING BLOWN AROUND AND
GUARD AGAINST BEING HIT BY FLYING DEBRIS. HIGH WINDS MAY ALSO
MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND
AVIATION CONCERNS.

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKDT THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

043 
WWAK77 PAJK 191938
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1138 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

AKZ027-028-200400-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130920T2100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
1138 AM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT FRIDAY...

* TIMING...WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED THIS MORNING.
  THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
  CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
  TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND
  WEAKENS.

* WINDS...SE WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 70 MPH.

* IMPACTS...BRANCHES WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN OFF TREES AND DOWN 
  POWER LINES. SOME TREES MAY FALL. MUD SLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE 
  IN AREAS WITH STEEP TOPOGRAPHY THAT EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE
ANY LOOSE OBJECTS TO PREVENT THEM FROM BEING BLOWN AROUND AND
GUARD AGAINST BEING HIT BY FLYING DEBRIS. HIGH WINDS MAY ALSO
MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND
AVIATION CONCERNS.

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 8 PM AKDT THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

309 
WWAK77 PAJK 200343
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
743 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

AKZ027-028-201100-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130920T2100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
743 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT FRIDAY...

* TIMING...WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH WERE REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
  HIGHEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WINDS
  ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM
  MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS.

* WINDS...SE WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 70 MPH.

* IMPACTS...BRANCHES WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN OFF TREES AND DOWN 
  POWER LINES. SOME TREES MAY FALL. MUD SLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE 
  IN AREAS WITH STEEP TOPOGRAPHY THAT EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE
ANY LOOSE OBJECTS TO PREVENT THEM FROM BEING BLOWN AROUND AND
GUARD AGAINST BEING HIT BY FLYING DEBRIS. HIGH WINDS MAY ALSO
MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND
FOR AVIATION CONCERNS.

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 AM AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

425 
WWAK77 PAJK 200548
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
948 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

AKZ027-028-201300-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130920T2100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
948 PM AKDT THU SEP 19 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT FRIDAY...

* TIMING...WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH WERE REPORTED THURSDAY. GUSTS OF
  60 MPH WILL OCCASIONALLY OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
  WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FRIDAY AS THE
  SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS.

* WINDS...SE WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 70 MPH.

* IMPACTS...BRANCHES WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN OFF TREES AND DOWN 
  POWER LINES. SOME TREES MAY FALL. MUD SLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE 
  IN AREAS WITH STEEP TOPOGRAPHY THAT EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE
ANY LOOSE OBJECTS TO PREVENT THEM FROM BEING BLOWN AROUND AND
TO GUARD AGAINST BEING HIT BY FLYING DEBRIS. HIGH WINDS MAY ALSO
MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND
FOR AVIATION CONCERNS.

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

281 
WWAK77 PAJK 201232
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
432 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

AKZ027-028-202100-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130920T2100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
432 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH CONTINUED TO BE REPORTED ACROSS
  THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 60
  MPH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT
  WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
  SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS.

* WINDS...SE WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...BRANCHES WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN OFF TREES AND DOWN 
  POWER LINES. SOME TREES MAY FALL. MUD SLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE 
  IN AREAS WITH STEEP TOPOGRAPHY THAT EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE
ANY LOOSE OBJECTS TO PREVENT THEM FROM BEING BLOWN AROUND AND TO
GUARD AGAINST BEING HIT BY FLYING DEBRIS. HIGH WINDS MAY ALSO
MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND
FOR AVIATION CONCERNS.

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKDT FRIDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

116 
WWAK77 PAJK 201926
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1126 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013


AKZ027-028-202030-
/X.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130920T2100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
1126 AM AKDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE AK GULF WILL TRACK NORTH AND WEAKEN
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 40 TO 50 MPH THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS DROPPING TO 10 TO 20 MPH BY FRIDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 64
MPH WERE RECORDED AT HYDABURG AND 63 MPH AT METLAKATLA THURSDAY
EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
207 PM AKDT WED SEP 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS PROGRESSING AS FORECAST WITH REGARD TO
AN APPROACHING STORM FORCE LOW THAT WILL GENERATE HIGH WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER MOST OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA DURING THIS SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND INTO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIODS
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT.

 SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY HAS BEEN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND PRESSING UP AGAINST THE EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IS VERY GOOD, WITH BOTH GEM
AND ECMWF DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW OUT OF THIS TROUGH WEST OF
THE PRIMARY LOW. WHETHER OR NOT THIS LOW FORMS, THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND A DIGGING DRY SLOT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL TEND TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST CENTRAL PRESSURE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 971 TO 977 MB APPROX. 300 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE DIXON ENTRANCE WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF.

 HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, PUBLIC ZONES 27 AND 28, BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING. ALSO INCLUDED STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONES 23 AND 26.
THINK THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE SEEN PRIMARILY ALONG THE EASTERN
SHORE OF BARANOF ISLAND FOR ZONE 23. FOR ZONE 26, THINK THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND GUSTS TO BE SEEN OVER KI ISLAND AND
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A STORM
WARNING FOR CLARENCE STRAIT, WHERE WINDS OFTEN TURN OUT TO BE
STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED IN SUCH SITUATIONS AS THIS.

 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO REVEALING VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON A VERY LARGE AREA
OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. NO HYDROLOGICAL
PRODUCTS ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST, BUT THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

 USED A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GEM TO CAPTURE THE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RESULTANT WIND DIRECTIONS OVER THE
GULF CHANGED SLIGHTLY, BUT USED WIND SPEEDS AS ISSUED BY PREVIOUS
SHIFT. INCREASED WINDS TO STORM FORCE OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND TO
MEET HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA OVER PUBLIC ZONES IN RESPONSE TO
80 KT LOW LEVEL JET CORE OVER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IN BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...MOST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. GENERALLY KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW TRACK ACROSS
THE ERN GULF THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MODELS WERE STILL HAVING SOME
ISSUES ON EXACTLY HOW THE LOW WILL EVOLVE WITH SOME SHOWING
MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS WHILE OTHERS SHOWED ONE MAIN CENTER. STUCK
WITH THE ONE CENTER IDEA AT THIS POINT. DID MAKE SOME UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS OVER THE SRN AREAS...AND ENDED UP
CONTINUING THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO ABOUT MIDDAY FRI FOR ZONES 27
AND 28. 925 MB WINDS ON THE GFS WERE IN THE 60-75 KT RANGE DURING
THIS TIME. EXTENDED THE TIME FRAME OF STORM FORCE WINDS FOR
CLARENCE STRAIT TO COVER THU NIGHT AS WELL. CONTINUED THE STRONG
WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONES 23 AND 26 THRU FRI EVENING. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT GETS INTO THE NE GULF...MAY NEED
STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE N-CENTRAL AREA FOR LATER FRI INTO
FRI EVENING.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...STAYED THE COURSE FOR NOW. MODELS
STILL JUMPING AROUND ON TRACK OF WEEKEND LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF...BUT SEEM TO BE SLOWLY CONVERGING ON A MORE SLY TRACK. THEY
ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND THE TUE-WED
PERIOD. OVERALL...PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ023-026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
     AKZ027-028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033-035-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031-032-034-051-052.

&&

FRITSCH/RWT