Gale Warning 398, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
401 PM AKST THU DEC 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THAT HAS IMPACTED SOUTHEAST
ALASKA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS EXITED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO
DRIFT WEST AND WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLE WILL
RAPIDLY MOVE INTO THE GULF TO AROUND 145W BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SEND A STRONG FRONT INTO THE OUTER COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONNECTION SO PRECIPITATION RATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS.

DEEP LAYER ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD SO HAVE
CONTINUED PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE FROM ANGOON NORTHWARD WITH RAIN TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THAT
ONLY A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT.
MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASES AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE PANHANDLE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
DAY. MUCH WARMER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT IN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE. AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE
TO RAIN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING
OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...EARLY AFTERNOON IN HOONAH...AND MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON IN GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU FROM THE AIRPORT
SOUTHWARD. AS USUAL THE MENDENHALL VALLEY AND NORTHWARD WILL HOLD
ONTO THE COLD AIR A BIT LONGER BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN BY EARLY
EVENING. HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT
CONCERN THAT THESE AREAS MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SNOWFALL.

50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO BOTH LAND AND MARINE AREAS BEGINNING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AT LEAST 40 MPH CAN BE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
OUTER COAST AND INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
INCLUDED GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE YAKUTAT AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT A STRONG WIND HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED BY LATER SHIFTS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH GALES
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS WELL AS CROSS SOUND
AND ICY STRAIT. SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLIES WILL SPREAD INTO THE
CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

USED MAINLY THE 12Z GFS TO UPDATE THE INHERITED GRIDS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ON MOST
ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST BUT DECREASES ON THE SNOW TO RAIN
CHANGEOVER IN THE JUNEAU AND GUSTAVUS AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY / NEXT SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO SPREAD THE RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE PANHANDLE.
MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE RAIN OR
TRANSFERRING OVER TO RAIN...HOWEVER THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF
GLACIER BAY WITH THE LYNN CANAL ZONES OF HAINES AND SKAGWAY WILL
BE SNOW...THOUGH STARTING TO CHANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECT THE RAIN TO LINGER FOR A DAY OR TWO... AND RAIN TOTALS IN
SOME REGIONS ARE GOING TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON STREAMS WITH HOW MUCH RUN OFF THERE COULD BE.
URBAN AREAS WITH BLOCKED DRAINAGES MAY SEE SOME PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAY. ALL THIS WATER ON THE HIGHER SLOPES AS WELL MAY
POTENTIALLY ALSO LEAD TO LAND SLIDES ON SOME SLOPES.

TEMPERATURES COOLING FAIRLY RAPIDLY AGAIN FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA SO
SHIFTING A LOT OF THE WEATHER TYPE BACK TO SNOW AND AS SHOWERS SO
THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HARDER TO HIT.

NEXT WEEKS WEATHER FROM THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK TO THE END OF
THE WEEK MORE OF GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH
IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST ALASKA MAY BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN JET STREAMS AND OUT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS A

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ023-026-027.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ028.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-021-022-033-035-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-031-032-034-053.

&&

TPS/BEZENEK

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>