Gale Warning 331, NWS Juneau, AK

198 
FZAK52 PAJK 170515 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
815 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-171400-
815 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN INTO CANADA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-171400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
815 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 14 FT. W
SWELL. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT LATE. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ042-171400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
815 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING
TO 11 FT LATE. W SWELL. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND BECOMING 25 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL IN
THE EVENING. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ043-171400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
815 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ051-171400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
815 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ052-171400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
815 PM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
E SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

866 
FZAK52 PAJK 171232
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 17 2013 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-180100-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 17 2013 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER DIXON ENTRANCE WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO CANADA SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON THROUGH SUN NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-180100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 17 2013 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO
8 FT LATE. W SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
W SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-180100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 17 2013 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-180100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 17 2013 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-180100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 17 2013 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. OUT
OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-180100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 17 2013 

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
559 AM AKST SAT NOV 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...COOL AND CLOUDY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SURFACE OBS ALSO
SHOW A WEAK LEE SIDE LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
BETWEEN CAPE SUCKLING AND YAKUTAT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A BROAD
CLOUD SHIELD MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. OBSERVATIONS HAVE REVEALED THAT THE CLOUDS
ARE MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT THE CLOUD HEIGHTS LOWER AS
YOU GET CLOSER TO THE OUTER COAST. YAKUTAT HAS EVEN SEEN SOME SNOW
THIS MORNING WITH UP TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE
ALSO BEEN BLOWING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. ELDRED
ROCK IS ALREADY NEARING GALE FORCE WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS BLOWING
IN STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND SOUTHERN LYNN.

 THE WEAK LOW OFF YAKUTAT WILL SPIN ITS WAY SE THROUGH TODAY AND
EVENTUALLY BE OVER HAIDA GWAII BY TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL SPREAD CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLE
TODAY AND ALSO BRING THE CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE OUTER COAST AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
AS THERE IS HARDLY ANY MOISTURE FOR THE LOW TO WORK WITH, AND
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE HAMPERING THE SNOW'S EFFORTS TO REACH THE
GROUND ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER INLAND YOU GET. BY TONIGHT MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR SOUTH AS THE LOW LINGERS A
BIT OVER HAIDA GWAII BEFORE MOVING INLAND.

 BEHIND THIS LOW THE NEXT COLD PUSH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO
THE PANHANDLE AS IT STRENGTHENS THE YUKON HIGH. CLOUDS WILL BE
CLEARING OUT AGAIN FROM NW TO SE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL DOWN AGAIN OVERNIGHT. OUTFLOW WINDS OUT OF THE
USUAL PLACES WILL STRENGTHEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A STRONG WIND
HEADLINE FOR SKAGWAY AND HAINES NEAR LYNN CANAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT DUE TO THIS. THE OTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE THE
PASSES NEAR JUNEAU AND ALSO DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. A MINOR
MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
RECORDED AT SOUTH DOUGLAS AND THE JUNEAU AML DOCK. CROSS BARRIER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE
CRITICAL LEVEL GETS INTO A BETTER POSITION AS THE DAY GOES ON SO
HAVE HOISTED A STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR ZONE 25 FOR INTERIOR
PASSES AND THE USUAL TAKU WIND AREAS AROUND DOWNTOWN AND DOUGLAS.

 OVERALL SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BUT VARIED ON
DETAILS OF WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WAS. AS SUCH HAVE MORE
CONFIDENCE ON WIND FORECAST BUT PRECIP FORECAST IS NOT THAT
CONFIDENT AND MAINLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH THE OUTFLOW DRIES OUT THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. USED A VARIETY OF MODELS FOR VARIOUS ELEMENTS
BUT MAINLY STUCK NEAR A NAM AND GFS SOLUTION.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...THE MID LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN FORMING BY SUNDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
BERING SEA WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA EXTENDING INTO
THE AK MAINLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY A LOW
MOVING FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS LOOKS
TO MERGE WITH A TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHWARD FROM THE AK INTERIOR.
HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH WHAT THE RESULTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DO. AT THE SURFACE THE LOW OVER HAIDA GWAII ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE YUKON AND NORTHERN BC. LOOKING AT A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE PANHANDLE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. A INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF FORM THE HAIDA GWAII LOW
WILL REDEVELOP A CLOSED CENTER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS IT IS PUSHED BY
ADVANCING SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF.

 THE ARCTIC AIR MASS FROM THE YUKON WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK WITH THE COLD DRY AIR MASS REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE OVER
THE AK GULF ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
HAIDA GWAII AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. AS THE NEXT LOW
DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN GULF PRECIP ALONG THE DEVELOPING FRONT
WILL MOVE SE ALASKA WITH HIGHEST POPS BY WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD AIR
IN PLACE FOR AN OVER RUNNING SNOW EVENT MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
POTENTIAL QPF AMOUNTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF
NOW MOST MODELS KEEPING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH
RANGE. HOWEVER THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAY
HAVE A MORE DEVELOPED MOISTURE CONNECTION WITH POTENTIAL TO FOR
FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL OF THE SEASON. THE PROBLEM IS WHICH
MODEL SOLUTION TO BELIEVE. THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES ARE ALSO
BRINGING IN A WARM AIR MASS.

 STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE YUKON HIGH AND HAIDA GWAII
LOW. OUTFLOW WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FROM SATURDAY BUT THEN
REDEVELOP AS EASTERLY GRADIENT REBUILDS BETWEEN BC HIGH AND LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. TAKU WIND COMPONENTS OF CROSS
BARRIER FLOW AND CRITICAL LEVEL IN PLACE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INVERSION SO FOR NOW KEEPING
JUST A MENTION OF HIGHER GUSTS FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.

 THERE WERE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH NEW MODEL RUNS. DID NOT LIKE NAM INITIALIZATION
COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF BUT MY MONDAY THESE TWO MODELS WERE
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WAS ALSO POOR.
CHALKING UP THESE ISSUES TO MODELS HAVING PROBLEMS TRYING TO
BREAKDOWN A STABLE PATTERN WITH SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A
BLEND OF NEW MODELS HAD RESULTS SIMILAR ENOUGH TO INHERITED
FORECAST TO PRECLUDE ANY MAJOR UPDATES. HOWEVER AS MODELS GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THESE INCOMING SYSTEMS EXPECT CHANGES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>033-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-052.

&&

EAL/PRB