Gale Warning 314, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
255 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

.SHORT TERM.../ THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY / THE WEATHER FOR
SOUTHEAST WILL GO TO A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF WEATHER. FOR
THE MOST PART THE WEATHER THAT IS BEING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
WHAT WAS BEING FORECAST ESSENTIALLY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
LOW FORMING NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST TO WEST
OF DIXON ENTRANCE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
WILL BE LUCKY TO JUST CATCH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE REGION ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. THINK MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND.

 MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH WEAK TO MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY WITH SOME COOLER AIR. AND WITH
THE LOW MOVING TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. I THINK THAT MAJORITY OF THE
GRADIENT WILL STAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SAINT ELIAS MOUNTAINS
AROUND YAKUTAT ...ALTHOUGH DISENCHANTMENT BAY MAY PICK UP SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. HOWEVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL SHOULD
REACT IN ITS TYPICALLY WINDY FASHION. WILL GO WITH GALES FOR
FRIDAY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION AND STRONG SMALL CRAFT THE
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL. AM THINKING THAT ELDRED ROCK WIND SENSOR
WILL BE SEEING STORM FORCE GUSTS AS WELL IN THE LATER AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE SMALL CRAFTS FOR GLACIER BAY...ICY STRAIT... AND CROSS
SOUND AS WELL.

 WITH HIGH BUILDING IN LOOKING FOR OFF SHORE FLOW AND CLEARING
SKIES SO THINKING PARTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CLOUDY
AND A DREARY LOOK OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...EXTENDED RANGE BEGINS FRI EVENING WITH THE
CONTINUING NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE WITH A WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. RESENT
MODEL TRENDS HAVE PUSHED THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP FURTHER
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH MOST OF THE POPS NOW APPEARING SOUTH OF
SUMNER STRAIT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE INTO SUN AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS AWAY. CLOUD COVER STILL REMAINS AT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY INTO SAT NIGHT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTH SO LOW TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH PRECIP REMAINING AS RAIN FOR THE AREA.
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE MEANWHILE WILL SEE CONTINUING CLEAR SKIES
AND NORTHERLY OFFSHORE WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GET DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST PLACES DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING
FRI AND SAT NIGHT. AS FOR WINDS LYNN CANAL WILL MAINTAIN A GALE
THROUGH FRI NIGHT BUT WILL START TO DIMINISH SAT MORNING AS THE
YUKON HIGH THAT SUSTAINED IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

 MOST OF THE PANHANDLE THEN STAYS DRY INTO SUN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS OVER THE PANHANDLE KEEPING ANY APPROACHING SYSTEMS
FROM THE WEST FROM MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST. STILL THEY WILL TRY.
YAKUTAT WILL START TO SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIP AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON
INTO SUN NIGHT. SOME OF THAT MAY LEAK OVER INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE SUN NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. PRECIP
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AS THE MAIN PART OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF, DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL YOU LOOK AT, AND WEAKENS AWAY MON EVENING AS A VICTIMS OF
THE RIDGE.

 FROM HERE THE FORECAST IS STILL TRICKY AS NONE OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE YET FOUND A SOLUTIONS THAT THEY LIKE FOR THE NEXT LOW
COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH TUE INTO WED. GENERAL TREND OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TO THE WEST FOR THE TRACK OF THE THING BUT
ONCE IT REACHES 50 NORTH GUIDANCE GOES OFF IN DIFFERENT
DIRECTIONS. GFS WRAPS IT AROUND TO THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF PUNTS
IT UP INTO HAIDA GWAII. THE GEM, GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND LONG
RANGE UKMET SEEM TO OFFER SOME GENERAL SUPPORT FOR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION BUT TIMING, STRUCTURE, AND STRENGTH VARY. WPC GUIDANCE
WENT IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SO DECIDED
TO USE THE WPC FOR EXTENDED RANGE UPDATES.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-033-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-043-051-052.

&&

BEZENEK/EAL