Gale Warning 2, NWS Juneau, AK

345 
FZAK67 PAJK 031249
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU JAN 3 2013 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-040100-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 3 2013 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF YAKUTAT BY FRIDAY
MORNING. A FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF FROM THE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-040100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 3 2013 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT...STRONGEST WINDS WESTERN PORTIONS. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
601 AM AKST WED JAN 2 2013

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT HAS STALLED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND
BISECTS THE PANHANDLE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG A LINE
FROM NEAR JUNEAU TO NEAR CAPE OMMANEY. PRECIP ON THE BIORKA
WEATHER RADAR HAS DIMINISHED STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT HAS
REMAINED STRATIFORM. RADAR ECHOS FROM THE MIDDLETON RADAR ARE
VERY CLEARLY CONVECTIVE AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND MOST RECENT UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT YAKUTAT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD STREAMING PARALLEL TO
THE SURFACE FRONT, SO AM EXPECTING LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POP
GRIDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH KEEP THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE EAST OF CHATHAM STRAIT IN STRATIFORM PRECIP WHILE
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR ARE UNDER
CONVECTIVE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PROGRESS TODAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS OCCURRING EARLY AND TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLE. THIS TREND SHOULD BE
AMPLIFIED BY RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. GRADIENT BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
IS QUITE TIGHT, AS IS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CATEGORICAL PRECIP TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNDULATING BACK AND FORTH, SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS
JUNEAU WILL GO FROM MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH SNOW LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. MAX SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT IS PETERSBURG WITH 2 INCHES IN GRIDS. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY, NEARBY SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AND MODELED
POP FIELDS, LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5 AM TODAY. NO WORD YET ON HOW MUCH SNOW
FELL OVERNIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IN CLARENCE STRAIT
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN CHATHAM AND SUMNER STRAIT AS
WELL AS THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES NORTH OF CAPE SPENCER. SOUTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, BUT
THOSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH STEADILY TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REVERSES FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

USED A BLEND OF NAM AND ECMWF FOR PRESSURE AND WIND. POP AND QPF
ARE FROM ECMWF. ADJUSTED TEMPS AND SNOW LEVELS WITH GFS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...ON THURSDAY A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
DIXON ENTRANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
OVER THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE AS IT PROGRESSES NORTH THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST PLACES WILL RECEIVE RAIN FROM THIS
TROUGH...HOWEVER A FEW AREAS OVER THE NORTH COULD SEE SOME SNOW
MIXED IN. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE INSIDE
WATERS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BEHIND IT.

A STRONGER CUT OFF LOW MOVES OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SE GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
LOW QUITE A BIT...BUT ALL INDICATE THAT IT WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN
TROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL REACH
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY EVENING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND
RAIN. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH SIMILARLY TO
THURSDAYS TROUGH.

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...MEANING CONTINUED WARM AND WET. THE BEST CHANCE OF A BREAK IN
THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE JUST BEFORE EACH OF THE FRONTAL TROUGHS ARRIVE
WHEN THE FLOW AROUND THEM IS MORE OFFSHORE...HOWEVER THESE
TIME FRAMES ARE RELATIVELY SHORT AND THEREFORE NOT AS OBVIOUS IN THE
FORECAST TEXT.

USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IN THE SORTER TERM AS MODELS ALL HAD A
SIMILAR IDEA ON THE FIRST TROUGH. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT ON AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS DEGRADED FROM THEN
ON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE IN THE SHORTER TERM AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-033-035-036-041-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-042-043.

&&

FRITSCH/HANNON