Gale Warning 13, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 1, 2013, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Jan 1, 2013, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

984 
FZAK51 PAJK 011235
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-020100-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A GALE FORCE LOW WEST OF KODIAK WILL CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THE MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE TUE
NIGHT AND EXIT THE AREA BY WED MORNING.  

$$

PKZ011-020100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-020100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-020100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-020100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-020100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-020100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-020100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-020100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 IN THE MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 11
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING N. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS
3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-020100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45
KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-020100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 6 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-020100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 31, 4:54 PM AKST, 11 hours 6 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
454 PM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

.SHORT TERM...HAPPY NEW YEAR. AND THIS ONE STARTS WITH
POTENTIALLY A BANG IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND LYNN CANAL LATE
TOMORROW. MORE ON THAT LATER. A BIG LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST INTO BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY MORNING. WHAT
WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE APPROACHING FRONT MAKING IT INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL ACCELERATE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS TO
GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OCEAN ENTRANCE STRAITS
TOMORROW AND BRING THOSE AREAS TO MIN GALES AS WELL. COASTAL
ZONES FROM 22 SOUTH TO 27 AND INTO 28 WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME
40 MPH WIND GUSTS TUESDAY...THUS HAVE ADDED STRONG WIND HEADLINES
FOR THOSE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN GULF RIGHT TODAY HAS NOT DONE A
VERY GOOD JOB AT PREVENTING YAKUTAT FROM GETTING A DECENT
DOUSING. THUS HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN FOR
YAKUTAT TONIGHT. IT WILL ONLY GET SOGGIER TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...RIDGE TIPPING OF WINDS IN LYNN CANAL KEPT SMALL CRAFT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THUS HAVE EXTENDED THEM INTO THE EVENING
WITH TRENDING DOWN TO 15 KT. PARALLEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP WINDS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ALONG NORTH SOUTH CHANNELS INTO TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...EAST WEST CHANNELS WILL BEGIN TO SEE WINDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE SOLID SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT EARLY TUE
MORNING. BOOSTED CLARENCE TO GALE FOR TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL
APPROACH.

 WITH RAINFALL RECORDS AT JUNEAU AND HAINES SET YESTERDAY...FEEL
THAT ALL OF THIS TRAPPED SURFACE LIQUID WILL SATURATE THE
ATMOSPHERE IF THERE IS ANY COOLING. THUS HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL ZONES. FOR TUESDAY MORNING...DECIDED TO OMIT
COASTAL ZONES AND STRONG WIND ZONES THINKING THE FOG WILL MIX OUT
QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

 FINALLY...BOOSTED QPFS WITH NEW MODEL. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
DEEP LAYERS ACROSS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, THE SETUP
FOR THE BEGINNING OF A WINTER STORM EVENT HAS BECOME LIKELY
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST PUT OUT A WATCH FOR THE HIGHWAYS. IN
ADDITION...HEALTHY OMEGA VALUES THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
BETWEEN THE -10 AND -20 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERMS MAY SUGGEST SOME
HEAVIER SNOWBANDS. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER SOGGY
DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE
JUNEAU AREA LIKELY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. ZONES 26, 28, AND 29
WILL AT LEAST HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NEW YEAR'S DAY.

 FOUND LITTLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS. RELIED MAINLY ON THE
NAM WITH A LITTLE BIT OF GFS AS THEY INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW. MAY HAVE BOOSTED SPEED OF FRONT JUST A
TAD FOR TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG
FRONT MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
IN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IS ORIGINATED FROM THE SUBTROPICS...AND THIS CAN LEAD TO MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR HAINES AND
KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN AS ALL SNOW.
SNOWFALL RATE MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DUE TO SATURATED AIR
THROUGHOUT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (-10 TO -20 C) AND STRONG
RISING AIR MOTION. THE LIMITING FACTORS TO THE SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL INCLUDE: TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING AND DRYING
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH FOR THIS
WINTER STORM EVENT...THUS DECIDE TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
NOW.

 BESIDES MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...WINDS WILL ALSO BE A
BIG FACTOR TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT SHOULD DIMINISH
OVER TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS IN THE INSIDE PASSAGE SHOULD BE IN THE
SUB-SMALL- CRAFT LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY. WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTED
PRESSURE GRADIENTS...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE FOUND IN
THE EAST- WEST CHANNELS. LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD BE FOUND IN THE
NORTH-SOUTH CHANNELS.

 AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ANCHOR IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...WHILE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL BRING IN MOIST AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE PANHANDLE. BASED ON THIS FLOW PATTERN...KEEP POP
IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

 USE ECMWF AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN USE HPC GUIDANCE BEYOND THAT. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND THURSDAY AS WEATHER MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
TO PINPOINT THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACTING
THE PANHANDLE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ022-023-027-028.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-034-035.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

JWA/RCL

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2013Every gale warning in 2013

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.