Gale Warning 113, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Feb 16, 2013, 12:55 PM AKST (21:55 UTC)

Expired

Feb 16, 2013, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

3 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

320 
FZAK51 PAJK 162156 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1255 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-170100-
1255 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF SAT AND THEN WEAKEN SAT
NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE E INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUN AND
INTO THE PANHANDLE SUN NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ011-170100-
GLACIER BAY-
1255 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-170100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1255 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 50
KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 KT DIMINISHING IN THE
EVENING TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-170100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1255 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-170100-
ICY STRAIT-
1255 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-170100-
CROSS SOUND-
1255 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 LATE IN THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-170100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1255 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-170100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1255 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-170100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1255 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. GUSTS AROUND 35 KT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-170100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1255 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-170100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1255 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-170100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1255 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 16, 6:01 AM AKST, 6 hours 54 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
601 AM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS RATHER QUIET TODAY. LAST
NIGHT'S FRONT IS WELL INTO CANADA AND THERE IS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE GULF AT THE MOMENT. CURRENTLY THERE ARE ONLY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. AS FOR
OTHER WEATHER FEATURES, NORTHERN LYNN CANAL IS STILL THE WINDY
SPOT WITH SOUTHERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS, AND SOME AREAS ARE SEEING
SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES INTO CANADA AND THE RIDGE TAKES OVER. BEHIND
THE TROUGH IS SOME COOLER AIR THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH (-8 TO -10 C AT 850 MB) THAT SNOW WILL
START MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN IN THE REMAINING SHOWERS. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO OCCUR TODAY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE BECOMING FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT OUT IN THE GULF AS THE NEXT FRONT
BEGINS ITS APPROACH TO THE PANHANDLE.

AS FOR WIND, MOST PLACES IN THE INNER CHANNELS WILL REMAIN BELOW
20 KT. THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. THERE 25 KT SMALL
CRAFT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE IN THE GULF AND THE REMAINING TROUGH IN
THE CANADIAN INTERIOR. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS THE GULF RIDGE WEAKENS. OUT IN THE GULF, SOME NW 25 KT WINDS
ARE BLOWING IN THE SE GULF DUE AGAIN TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE GULF RIDGE AND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY EVENING AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. MEANWHILE WINDS
OUT IN THE OFFSHORE AND NORTHERN GULF WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT
TO 30 KT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS FROM THE NEXT FRONT START TO
MAKE THEIR PRESENCE KNOWN.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. A FEW SMALL DETAILS HERE AND THERE WERE DIFFERENT BETWEEN
THE MODELS BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE LARGE CHANGES IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES
TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECTING NEW LOWS WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GULF AND AFFECT THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND OTHER ONE FOR FRIDAY. BETWEEN
EACH SYSTEM WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT BREAK WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AROUND AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. EACH FRONT WILL
BRING WITH IT WARMER MARINE AIR TO THE SOUTHERN COAST WHILE THE
BREAKS IN BETWEEN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED RAIN VS. SNOW
FORECAST...AS USUAL IN SE ALASKA...EXPECT A MIX OF BOTH WITH
MAINLY RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY MORNING THE CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED
TO BE -6C TO -8C AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...THEREFORE THINGS SHOULD
START OFF AS SNOW. BY LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COAST WILL HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A CATALYST FOR THE
CHANGEOVER OVER INSIDE AREAS. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL
SEE ABOUT 2" DURING THE DAY AND UP TO ANOTHER 2" SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE...PETERSBURG AREA...WILL BE MORE ON THE
ORDER OF ABOUT A HALF INCH BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 20-30KT WINDS AND HIGHER
GUSTS. THE PARENT LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SE THROUGH MONDAY...KEEPING SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING THEM OVER THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THE WEAK ELONGATED LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTH WINDS THROUGH
THE INSIDE WATERS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH FOR A
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH BREAKS IN BETWEEN
EXPECTED...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOW LOOKS TO HAVE SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH IT. BUT AGAIN THE NORTHERN INSIDE PASSAGE SHOULD
START OFF AS SNOW. CURRENTLY HAVE 2-6 INCHES FOR
YAKUTAT/HAINES/SKAGWAY, ABOUT 2" IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY, AND LESSER
AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH AS PRECIP WILL FALL AS MAINLY RAIN.

OVERALL MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. FAVORED THE ECMWF FOR ITS
INITIALIZATION AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH
WAS USED FOR UPDATES WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE...BUT BELOW AVERAGE FOR
TIMING OF P-TYPE CHANGES.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-041>043-051-052.

&&

EAL/HANNON

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2013Every gale warning in 2013

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.