Gale Warning 101, NWS Juneau, AK

168 
FZAK52 PAJK 092027 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1127 AM AKST SAT FEB 9 2013

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-100100-
1127 AM AKST SAT FEB 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-100100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1127 AM AKST SAT FEB 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-100100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1127 AM AKST SAT FEB 9 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE
MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-100100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1127 AM AKST SAT FEB 9 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-100100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1127 AM AKST SAT FEB 9 2013

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-100100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1127 AM AKST SAT FEB 9 2013

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT
SUBSIDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
343 PM AKST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...REMAINS OF A FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE CLEARED
THE AREA TO THE EAST WITH THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
RECEIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. TEMPS TODAY HAVE
BEEN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, SO NO
CONCERNS ABOUT SNOW TODAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GETTING DOWN TO
THE LOWERS 30S NORTH OF ICY STRAIT AND DOWN TO THE MID TO LOWER
20S NEAR THE BORDER ALONG BOTH HIGHWAYS. WHAT PRECIP THAT IS IS
LEFT TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, BUT ACCUMULATIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH AT ALL. SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT, AM NOT EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO GET ANY LOWER THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, SO RAIN SHOWERS VICE
SNOW THERE. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BY SOUTHEAST ALASKA WINTER STANDARDS...SO
HAVE INCLUDED FOG IN MOST ZONES TONIGHT. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT, SO RADIATION
COOLING WILL BE VERY LIMITED, SO HAVE CHARACTERIZED THE FOG AS
PATCHY INSTEAD OF AREAS. IF ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS DO APPEAR,
THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

 ANOTHER FRONT IS HEADED EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE EASTERN GULF LATER TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
GALES. PEAK CONDITIONS WITH 45 KTS AND 15 FT SEAS OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL MARINE ZONES BY TOMORROW MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
RESPONSE OVER THE INNER CHANNELS PRIMARILY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BIG STORY WITH THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE QPF VALUES. TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION VERY CLEARLY OBSERVED IN AMSU IMAGERY AND
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CONCENTRATING MAX QPF IN A RELATIVELY SMALL
AREA THAT WILL TRACK SOUTH DOWN THE OUTER COAST WITH THE FRONT.
THIS EVENT WILL ONLY BE JUST GETTING STARTED IN THE SECOND HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD, BUT IN THAT TIME, HAVE
INCLUDED NEARLY 1 AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FOR
YAKUTAT. IN ADDITION TO THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THE PANHANDLE WILL BE
RECEIVING, SNOW LEVELS WHERE THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE RISING TO 4000 FEET AND BEGIN TO
SATURATE MOUNTAIN SNOW PACK. SEE THE EXTENDED RANGE DISCUSSION
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS AS THIS EVENT WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.

 USED A BLEND OF NAM, GEM, ECMWF, AND UKMET FOR PRESSURE AND WIND
WITH EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. UPDATED POP AND QPF
WITH SAME. TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS ADJUSTED USING SREF AND
GFS40. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN AMPLIFY AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD JUST E OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST SUN. DEEP TROF OVER THE
N-CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA SUN.
THIS WILL HELP PUSH AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE
SUN. A SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUN NIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY MON....AND FINALLY
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN AREA BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE
A LOW WILL TRY TO MOVE ENE ACROSS HAIDA GWAII TUE. LATER IN THE
WEEK MODEL TIMING ON FEATURES BEGINS TO DIVERGE. ENDED UP USING
THE 00Z ECMWF FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON...THEN WENT WITH LATEST HPC
MON NIGHT ON OUT.

 THE SLOW MOVING OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL BEGIN
TO PICK UP SPEED AND PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREA BY LATE SUN
MORNING...THEN THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN AREA BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MAINLY THE NE
GULF COAST SAT NIGHT...AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AREAS SUN. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND YAKUTAT
WITH AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN PANHANDLE AREA COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL
COASTAL AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL PEAK NEAR 2500 FEET OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS TO 4000 FEET OVER THE SOUTH. AT THIS
POINT DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD FLOODING GIVEN LARGER
RIVERS ARE AT FAIRLY LOW LEVELS RIGHT NOW...BUT SMALLER STREAMS
AND LOCAL DRAINAGES COULD BECOME A PROBLEM ESPECIALLY SUN. DO NOT
HAVE ANY FORECASTS FOR AREA RIVERS RIGHT NOW SO WILL TRY TO GET
SOME GUIDANCE FROM RFC FOR LATER SHIFTS TO HAVE AVAILABLE. MAY
NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR WHITE PASS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS
WELL BUT GIVEN THAT SNOW LEVEL WILL BE JUST BELOW THEM...THE SNOW
MAY BE WET ENOUGH TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO BELOW WARNING LEVELS.
WILL NOT PUT OUT ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ATTM. WINDS MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL AREAS
AND ALONG THE OUTER COAST NW PASI SAT NIGHT AND SUN. STRONG SW
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY INDUCE STRONG SW SFC WINDS NEAR PAGY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...BUT WILL NOT HEADLINE FOR THAT AS IT IS A
3RD AND 4TH PERIOD EVENT. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD MAKE FOR
AN INCREASED AVALANCHE HAZARD IN THE JUNEAU AREA AS WELL SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN.

 ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES OUT LATER SUN...PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
NEXT LOW AND FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF WILL INCREASE PRECIP
AGAIN SUN NIGHT AND MON. THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN AREA...SO RAINFALL FROM THIS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. EVEN THE SOUTH...WHERE FRONT WILL BE SLOWER
TO MOVE THROUGH...SHOULD NOT GET HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS AS BEST
DEEP LAYER LIFT WILL REMAIN NW OF THERE. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
INLAND COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN...PROBABLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA MON NIGHT.

 LOW MOVING ENE ACROSS HAIDA GWAII FOR TUE WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME
RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH. IT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR OFFSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND HELP WITH SOME CLEARING...BUT
MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THIS SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. SHOULD BE A COOLER DAY AS WELL...BUT
TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

 LATER IN THE WEEK WITH RIDGE LIKELY BUILDING AGAIN...SOME WARMER
AIR MAY MOVE NE INTO THE AREA. DID NOT CHANGE TEMPS BEYOND TUE
THOUGH. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP SOME DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY WET PERIOD AS WELL.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-022-031-033-036-041-042.

&&

FRITSCH/RWT