Winter Storm Warning 18, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
249 PM AKST SAT NOV 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH DEEP UPPER LOW
MOVING EAST JUST OFFSHORE OF POINT LAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THE
MODELS DIVERGE IN POSITION OF LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW DEEP
BUT MORE NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE
ALCAN BORDER BY TUE AFTERNOON. THEN A HUGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER THE BERING AND EXTENDS TO THE ARCTIC COAST ON TUE AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT FROM THE WEST COAST IS
MOVING SOMEWHAT SLOWER AS IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
RESISTANT TO MOVING EASTWARD AS FAST AS THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED.
THIS HAS PROVIDED A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE PATTERN IS
NOW PROGRESSING AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD ONCE
AGAIN. THE FORM OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY LIKELY BE SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN AT VALLEY LEVEL BUT NEARLY CERTAIN THAT IT WILL BE
ALL SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE ON
TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY. NEW MODEL DATA HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED THE
IDEA OF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.

VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSPORT DECENT
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SNOWFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE HAS BEEN
PILING UP THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NEXT STOP FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL
BE IN ZONES 225 AND 226 STARTING SUN. THE GFS FRONTOGENESIS
GRAPHICAL DISPLAY SHOWS VERY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MON MORNING GIVEN THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

COASTAL FLOODING IS NEARLY CERTAIN THROUGHOUT NORTON SOUND COASTAL
COMMUNITIES GIVEN THE WIND SPEEDS...THE FETCH AND THE DURATION.
KIVALINA IS ANOTHER CONCERN AS WELL. DEERING IS REPORTING FLOODING
INLAND AND THE AIRPORT ROAD IS INUNDATED WITH WATER...WHICH IS NOT
UNCOMMON IN EVENTS SUCH AS THESE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ226.

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ209-AKZ210.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ216-
AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ225-AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ223.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-
PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CF NOV 13