Winter Storm Warning 11, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
316 PM AKDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN IT BEGINS TO
DIVERGE A LITTLE. THE ECMWF TAKE A MORE NORTHERN TRACK STARTING
SUN NIGHT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOW MOVING EAST IN THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AFTER 36 HOURS WITH THE
NAM GOING NORTH...GFS GOING SOUTH AND THE ECMWF GOING EASTWARD IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE OTHER 2 MODEL TRACKS.

THE PROBLEMS THAT ARE GOING TO NEED TO BE LOOKED AT MORE IN DEPTH
ARE THE AMOUNTS OF SNOW THAT WILL LIKELY FALL ON THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.
WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 1 TO 2 FT ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ALASKA RANGE AREA WHILE SNOWFALL NEAR 1 FT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE MAKING ANY SPRING LIKE
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN ALASKA ANYTIME SOON. CENTRAL ALASKA
ATTEMPTS TO SOAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO MAKE THE COLD PUSH A WEEKLY
EVENT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO STRIKE THE WEST COAST
NEXT WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO NOT PUT THAT MUCH SURFACE WIND WITH THIS
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING ONTO THE ARCTIC COAST..IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE MODELS ARE UNDERDONE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION.
EXPECT MANY AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN ZONES 205 AND 206
FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT. BROOKS RANGE PASSES WILL
BECOME LIKELY IN A WHITEOUT STATE. MUCH COLDER AIR FOR AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK OVER ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA AND WILL
PERSIST TO A LESSER DEGREE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CF MAY 13