Wind Chill Advisory 41, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1220 PM AKDT SAT APR 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...
OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
06/00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE 06/00Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE 06/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. AN EXPANSIVE DEEP AND
COLD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE AROUND OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 850 MB
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND WEDNESDAY..THE OPERATIONAL
RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE BERING
SEA WITH THE UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR BEING PUSHED GRADUALLY
EASTWARD.

THE LATEST NCEP/CPC ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO AVERAGE MUCH BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND IN THE 6-10 DAY TIME FRAME...APRIL
12 THROUGH APRIL 16. OVER THE INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

ON THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE COOK INLET/KENAI PENINSULA AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
TO BE CENTERED NEAR NORTHWAY BY SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE AND PERIODS OF SNOW AT TIMES OVER THE MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE AND OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST ALASKA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS
EVENING. WILL RUN THE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR
ZONES 205-206-217-218 AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
AKZ207 THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN ZONE 207 WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST
FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN NORTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOWMELT IN THE INTERIOR REMAINS IN HOLDING PATTERN...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP RIVER ICE FIRM...AND A SMALL INCREASE
IN RIVER ICE THICKNESS IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ207.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ217-AKZ218.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220

&&

RF APR 13