Wind Advisory 16, NWS Fairbanks, AK

110 
WWAK73 PAFG 241607
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
807 AM AKDT WED APR 24 2013

AKZ222-241715-
/X.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-130425T0000Z/
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...
NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...
CHENA HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP
807 AM AKDT WED APR 24 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR HIGHER ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING OR EXPECTED...
THOUGH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
232 AM AKDT WED APR 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB CONTINUES TO BUCKLE WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS RIDGE IN THE
BERING SEA BUILDS NORTHWARD AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
HIGH ARCTIC DEEPENS AS IT NUDGES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. A STRONG
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE BERING SEA AND INTO THE INTERIOR. THIS SHORT WAVE COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA THAT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR MORE
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM HAS
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WITH STRONG PVA...COLD POCKET AND JET MAX
WHICH WILL ENHANCE PRECIP ACROSS THE INTERIOR ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH ADDITIONAL LIFTING PROVIDED BY STRENGTHENING
FRONT. SNOW WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED IN ZONE 225 WITH FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY.

VERTICAL PROFILE WILL BE COOLING THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF RAIN MIXING WITH THE SNOW EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVERALL SNOW RATIOS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 12
TO 1. THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH EXPECTED QPF AND SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD PRECLUDE INTERIOR LOCATIONS FROM ACCUMULATING
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW. WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS EXPECTED IN INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH EXPECTED ON INTERIOR SUMMITS. BLOWING SNOW
ON INTERIOR SUMMITS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS TODAY HOWEVER BLOWING SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON INTERIOR
SUMMITS AS TEMPERATURES DROP TONIGHT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTH SLOPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY EAST
OF BARROW WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINE NEEDED FOR ZONE 204. UPSLOPE
WILL ENHANCE SNOW ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BROOKS RANGE WHERE 6
TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR ZONE 206.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DEPICTED ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. PAST THIS WEEKEND RELATIVE MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY
DROP. THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY ISSUES WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE MUCH BETTER
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND IS PREFERRED IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS WILL WILL SLOW ANY RIPENING OF THE
SNOW PACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.
&&

CCC APR 13